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Brandon Belt 2021 Player Outlook: Late Career Breakout is For Real
San Francisco Giants first baseman Brandon Belt put on a show in the shortened 2020 season, notching a triple-slash of .309/.425/.591 while clubbing nine home runs and knocking in 30 runs in 51 games. While many will look at the chaotic nature of the 2020 season and think this is a small sample size fluke, I think that would be casting aside some significant changes. After spending four years in a row with a launch angle close to 22-degrees, Belt dropped the launch angle to 18-degrees last year. His FB% dropped 6.1%, his infield fly ball rate fell from 7.8% to 0% (yes, zero), and his line-drive rate went up by four percent. Yes, his HR/FB jump from 8.8% to 19.1% is likely unsustainable, but it also shows that the swing change caused Belt to be able to square the ball up more consistently and drive it more effectively. In fact, his 16.8% barrel rate was good for the 10th-best in all of baseball last year. The fact is that Belt is only 32-years-old, he clearly benefited from swing changes, and the Giants made adjustments to their park dimensions allowing Oracle Park to become more hitter-friendly, playing as the 12th best park for HR power. All of this gives Belt more value than the market seems to think considering he's being drafted at an insulting ADP of 322.
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