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Brad Keller 2021 Outlook: Emerging Starter Can Contribute Despite Regression
4 years agoKansas City Royals starting pitcher Brad Keller had a strong 2020 season, but still seems to be undervalued by fantasy managers. It's easy to doubt Keller, after all, he threw just 54 2/3 innings last year. His numbers are skewed by a complete-game shutout and everyone knows Keller's 2.47 ERA should regress because his skill-based ERA metrics - a 4.82 SIERA and a 4.33 xFIP - suggest he got lucky last season. A career-low .233 BABIP and an unsustainable 5.1 percent home run to fly ball ratio also scream regression is coming for Keller. The interesting thing with Keller, however, is he can take a step back and still be useful in fantasy. The former Rule 5 draft pick has been a staple in the Royals' rotation since 2018 and Kansas City will lean on Keller to eat innings. Keller is a risky starter in fantasy as he won't rack up strikeouts, but he is a master of the ground ball with a 52.1 percent career ground ball rate and a career launch angle of just 8.1 degrees. The 25-year-old isn't a must-roster player in all leagues, but an average draft position of 285th overall is overcorrecting for expected regression. Target Keller as early as 250th overall as he has plenty of sleeper appeal, especially in leagues that reward innings and quality starts.
