3 years agoAroldis Chapman had an up-and-down season for the New York Yankees in 2021, finishing with a 3.36 ERA, 3.99 FIP, 1.31 WHIP, 39.9 K%, and 1.44 HR/9, along with 30 saves across 56.1 innings. However, he posted a 7.64 ERA in June and July. Free passes were an issue all season, as April was the only month with a walk rate below 12.7%, including a two-month stretch with a 20.2 BB%. It can be attributed to a career-low 25.5% chase rate that has diminished every year since 2018. Chapman's arsenal consists of mainly three pitches; four-seamer, slider, and split-finger. His fastball averaged 98.3 MPH, up from 97.8 MPH in 2020, and had 80th percentile spin rate. But, it moved vertically 1.3 inches above average, the lowest mark since Statcast tracked pitch movement in 2016. Chapman's slider still has great horizontal movement but has lost spin for two years straight, and his splitter produced a 66.7 Whiff%, although was thrown just 11.1% of the time. His launch angle and groundball rate were around his career norm, but his barrel rate elevated for a second consecutive season to 16.2%. As well, Chapman's 114.3 max exit velocity and 40 HardHit% were by far the highest of his career. He should still save upwards of 30 games and end 2022 as a top reliever in strikeouts after a 99th percentile whiff rate. However, the walks are concerning, and batters keep hitting him harder, so Chapman shouldn't be a plus in ERA or WHIP. His ADP of 80 is a bit high, and fantasy managers should wait for other solid relievers going later, like Kenley Jansen (86 ADP) or Jordan Romano (103 ADP).--Spencer Seguin