December 19, 2021

Houston Astros third baseman Alex Bregman couldn't bounce back from his disappointing shortened season, slashing .270/.355/.422 with 12 HRs, 55 RBI, 54 runs, and one stolen base over 91 games, missing more than two months with a strained quadriceps. This production came a year after hitting just six home runs in 42 games. The lack of power is suspicious, given that he slugged 41 HRs in 2019. His peripherals haven't changed much, though. He's never had a lot of barrels, placing in the 21st percentile in 2019, before the 29th percentile last season. And although he slugged .592 in 2019, Statcast gave him just a .448 xSLG, and his 32.8 xHR didn't match his actual 41. There was a big difference in his xBA, too, as he hit .296 that year with a .261 xBA. Pitchers still found it difficult to strike him out last year- 13.3 K%- and he got on base at a good clip with an 11 BB%. Bregman will end up with more than 80 RBI and runs while in the middle of a solid Astros lineup, and it wouldn't be a shock if he got back to hitting the ball in the air following a career-high 41.5 GB%. However, It would still be surprising to see him hit 30 HRs again and won't be much of a factor in stolen bases, totally just six the past three seasons. He's not going to hurt the batting average but won't hit above .290. His 95 ADP looks like fantasy managers are banking on somewhat of the old Bregman to return, but this is a reach.--Spencer Seguin