December 11, 2022

After Toronto Blue Jays right-hander Alek Manoah's phenomenal rookie season, he only got better in 2022, posting a 2.24 ERA and 0.99 WHIP with 16 wins, eventually finishing third in the Cy Young voting. However, his 3.35 FIP and 3.98 xFIP were significantly higher than his ERA. Manoah improved his walk rate by 2.2%, but that didn't compensate for his decline in strikeouts. After posting a 27.7% strikeout rate in 2021, it fell to 22.9% this season thanks to a whiff rate that dropped from 29.7% to 24.8% (43rd percentile). The righty's arsenal remained unchanged, with a fastball (35.9%), slider (27.1%), sinker (25.8%), and changeup (11.2%). The biggest problems were Manoah's fastball, which lost 6.4 points in whiff rate, and his slider, which forfeited an inch of horizontal break and 7.4 points in whiff rate. He should be able to regain some strikeout numbers next season, but don't expect a strikeout rate above 25%. Manoah has shown he can limit hard contact during his two seasons in the majors, including an 80th percentile barrel rate and 73rd percentile average exit velocity this year. But the 24-year-old hasn't kept the ball on the ground (38.8% career groundball rate) and should see his career 8.3% HR/FB and .245 BABIP increase. Playing at the Rogers Centre will only magnify these problems, so a home run rate above 1.00 and a batting average closer to .240 wouldn't be surprising. If Steamer's projection of 12 wins, a 4.07 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, and 195 strikeouts over 199 innings are any indications, Manoah's ADP of 68 is too expensive.--Spencer Seguin