January 25, 2020

Going into 2019, Adalberto Mondesi offered category-winning speed along with real power, runs, RBI, and a totally functional batting average. The year was derailed by a shoulder subluxation and subsequent surgery. Mondesi finished the season with 43 stolen bases, 9 home runs, 58 runs, 62 RBI, and a .263 BA. It was good enough for 84th in 5x5 formats, but given Mondesi’s promise, most owners were disappointed in the final numbers. While Mondesi is on target to return, there is real concern about whether the shoulder will sap his power and ability to drive the ball. Mondesi’s speed will give him value even if his barrel rate drops, but if he struggles to get on base, his low walk rate will handicap his ability to accumulate steals. As a result, there is a huge range of outcomes. Steamer and Depth Charts see Mondesi as a player likely to play 150 games and to provide 20 HR, 80 runs, 75 RBI, and 50 SB with .253 BA. While projection systems skew conservative, that should put him near the top 50. On the other hand, ATC is far more skeptical of his health. It gives him only 125 games to accumulate a mere 70 runs and 67 RBI alongside 16 HR and 48 SB. The good news there is that the ATC projections offer a reasonable floor of a player who should finish ranked around 125. That would be an absolute loss in comparison to Mondesi’s ADP of 39, but stolen bases have become so coveted that it won’t cripple a fantasy roster. Conversely, the price for acquiring Mondesi has gotten so high that it assumes a nearly full return to his 2018 performance. Owners can draft Mondesi based on the Steamer projection, but for a player going in the top 40, there’s remarkable uncertainty and limited room for profit.--David Emerick