4 years agoLast season, A.J. Brown averaged 7.57 targets per game and finished as the WR7. We know the Titans are a run-first offense centered around Derrick Henry. They attempted the third-fewest passes in 2020. Yet, somehow, Brown managed to finish as the WR7. The Titans lost Corey Davis to the Jets and Jonnu Smith to the Patriots. Their big offseason signing was Josh Reynolds and they only bothered to spend a day three pick on WR Dez Fitzpatrick. There is a case to be made that no WR has less target competition than Brown. Henry is now 27 years old. He's shown no signs of slowing down, but running backs fall off hard and fall off fast. It's not hard to envision the Titans having to throw a bit more this season. We know what Brown can do on limited targets. At worst, he's a back end WR1. But what if he finds his way into 8.5-9 targets a game? Brown is on the short list of players with overall WR1 in his range of outcomes. You can make an argument for Brown to go as high as the third WR off the board behind Tyreek Hill and Davante Adams. If I choose to take a WR in the second round, and those two are gone, I want A.J. Brown. 6/7/21 Update: As we're all keenly aware, the Titans sent a handful of picks to the Falcons to acquire the services of Julio Jones. While the addition of Julio undoubtedly lowers Brown's ceiling a bit, the complete absence of any semblance of a reliable pass catcher behind Brown mitigates almost all of the damage to Brown's value. Julio's targets will come from the likes of Anthony Firkser, Josh Reynolds, Dez Fitzpatrick, and the ancillary receivers. If Brown's target share drops at all, it will only be by a percentage point or two. I can no longer advise taking him over Stefon Diggs, DeAndre Hopkins, or Calvin Ridley, but he's still a locked in mid WR1.--Jason Katz