RADIO
A.J. Brown 2020 Outlook: Not Yet A WR1
5 years agoTennessee Titans wide receiver A.J. Brown was a starting-caliber fantasy receiver in half of his regular-season performances last year. However, in the eight games that Brown failed to score 11 or more fantasy points, he was targeted five or fewer times. This low fantasy floor tells us Brown can be a fantasy starter at any time, but he is a risky start without a minimum of six targets per game. That sort of consistent target share may be hard for the 23-year-old receiver to hit in 2020 since Tennessee was the third run-heaviest team in the NFL last year, and their investment in the massive Isaiah Wilson at tackle indicates that trend should continue. Tennessee sees the run game as their key to victory, which is why Brown’s target share dropped to 3.3 per game in the playoffs. As long as the team continues to run with such frequency, Brown’s ability to be a true WR1 will be compromised. That is why his ADP as fantasy’s 37th overall pick is fair in redrafts, though his upside and Derrick Henry’s questionable future should mean that Brown is worth a top-35 pick in dynasty.
