X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Pitchers Who Changed Scenes - Risers and Fallers for 2020

Brian Rudd examines four pitchers who have changed teams this past offseason and what fantasy baseball owners can expect from them in their new homes in 2020.

Projecting pitching performance is a never-ending cycle that is constantly changing due to a variety of factors. Pitchers are often tinkering with their pitch mix, which can sometimes unlock a new level in performance. Their velocity can go up, which adds some intrigue to their profile; or it could go down, which usually makes them less appealing and could mean an injury is in play.

Another major factor that can drastically affect a pitcher's value is when he changes teams. It's pretty obvious what happens when a pitcher goes to or leaves Colorado, but it's usually not quite that simple. A variety of circumstances come into play, such as park factors, team defense, offensive support, and organizational philosophy.

As always, many players have changed teams this off-season. In this column, we'll take a look at four pitchers that will be sporting new uniforms when play resumes, and what impact that is likely to have on their fantasy value for the 2020 campaign.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

David Price (SP, LAD)

Once a workhorse who topped 208 IP in six of seven seasons from 2010-16, Price has posted totals of 74 2/3, 176, and 107 1/3 in three seasons since. Price put up a 4.28 ERA in 2019, which was his highest of the past decade, but his underlying skills, including a career-best 28% K%, were excellent. He actually had a 3.16 ERA through 17 starts before the wheels fell off. Price made four more appearances before hitting the IL with a cyst on his wrist, and during that time, he allowed 20 earned runs in 17 innings. Perhaps the injury was affecting Price during his rough stretch, and a .469 BABIP definitely contributed to the struggles.

Price was traded from the Red Sox to the Dodgers in early February and should benefit from the move from the AL East to the NL West. He's not the workhorse he used to be- after topping 208 innings in six of seven seasons from 2010-16, Price has posted totals of 74 2/3, 176, and 107 1/3 in three seasons since. He doesn't have to be, though. The season is likely to be shorter than usual, and the Dodgers do a great job of getting the most out of their pitchers, even if it means capping their workload a bit.

Price still owns strong skills, and the move to Los Angeles looks like a great landing spot where he will get plenty of run support. His price is rising in drafts, and rightfully so, as he's a good bet to put up excellent numbers in 2020.

 

Hyun-Jin Ryu, (SP, TOR)

Ryu is coming off a huge 2019 season in which he posted a 2.32 ERA across 182 2/3 innings, his heaviest workload since 2013. He parlayed that success into a four-year, $80 million deal with Toronto, where he's expected to serve as the ace of the rotation.

There are a few reasons to be wary of Ryu's production carrying over into 2020, though. First of all, he hadn't even reached 130 innings in any of the previous four seasons, so he remains very risky on the health front. Even with the schedules expected to be shortened, Ryu is unlikely to hold up for the duration of the season.

Also, Ryu enjoyed much better results at Dodger Stadium the past three seasons than on the road:

During that span, Ryu's K% dropped five full percentage points in road games, from 25.6% at Dodger Stadium, down to 20.5% in all other parks. The Rogers Centre in Toronto plays more hitter-friendly, so he can't be expected to sustain the home dominance. Currently going off the board at pick 139 in NFBC drafts, as the 40th starting pitcher taken, Ryu is a little over-priced.

 

Dylan Bundy (SP, LAA)

Bundy has always possessed quality stuff but was never able to put it all together in Baltimore. In his three full seasons as a starter, he struck out 23.2% of the batters he faced, but an ugly 1.7 hr/9 during that time resulted in a 4.84 ERA. Though Bundy pitched half his games in a hitter-friendly park, he was equally bad at home (4.81 ERA) and on the road (4.86).

Bundy's four-seam fastball has been crushed the past two seasons, as 37 of the 70 home runs he's allowed have come off the pitch, with batters putting up a .316 BA and .288 ISO. He did shy away from the four-seamer late in the year, throwing it just 35% of the time over his final nine starts. During that span, he allowed just five home runs in 53 1/3 innings, with a 50% ground ball rate.

Bundy is far from a sure thing, as his velocity has dipped three years in a row, and he has a long history of home run problems. However, he's always missed bats at a decent clip, there's reason to believe the late-season gains can stick, and simply getting out of Baltimore adds to the appeal. With an NFBC ADP of 268, Bundy makes for an intriguing mid-round upside gamble.

 

Homer Bailey (SP, MIN)

It has appeared for quite some time that Bailey's days of being fantasy relevant were in the rearview, but he went on a nice little run at the end of last season that put him back on the radar. After some initial struggles following a trade to Oakland, he put up a 2.25 ERA across 48 innings in his last eight starts. During that time, he recorded a 24% SwK and 62% ground ball rate on his cutter, and his four-seam fastball was extremely effective as well.

After signing a one-year, $7 million deal with Minnesota, Bailey finds himself in a good situation for 2020. He'll have one of the top offenses in the league supporting him and will pitch roughly one-third of his games against weak AL Central offenses-the Royals, Indians, and Tigers. Bailey can't reasonably be expected to just pick up where he left off at the end of last year, but he can provide decent value at his 492 ADP, especially if you have the roster flexibility to pick your spots with him.

More Fantasy Baseball Analysis




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

New York Jets

Jets Pushing Sauce Gardner to Strive for Perfection
Xavier Worthy

Chiefs to Open Up Offense in 2025
Tallison Teixeira

Suffers First-Round TKO
Derrick Lewis

Scores First-Round TKO
Michael Lorenzen

Royals Put Michael Lorenzen on Injured List With Oblique Strain
Stephen Thompson

Loses Controversial Split Decision
Stefon Diggs

Likely to Begin Camp Working on the Side
Gabriel Bonfim

Wins Controversial Split Decision
Calvin Kattar

Gets Outclassed At UFC Nashville
Xavier Legette

Should be More Productive
Steve Garcia

Extends His Win Streak
Cole Bishop

has Good Shot to Win a Starting Job
Nate Landwehr

Gets Knocked Out
Nate Wiggins

Ravens Think Nate Wiggins has Star Potential
Morgan Charrière

Morgan Charriere Scores Third-Round Knockout
Kel'el Ware

Collects 21 Points in Summer League Loss on Sunday
Austen Lane

Suffers Submission Loss
Vitor Petrino

Scores First-Round Submission In Heavyweight Debut
Cam Spencer

Contract Being Restructured
Drew Timme

Scores 30 Points in Summer League Loss to Wizards
Quinshon Judkins

More Details Emerge on Quinshon Judkins' Arrest
Tuco Tokkos

Earns His First UFC Win
Alexandre Sarr

Logs Impressive Outing in Summer League Action on Sunday
Junior Tafa

Unsuccessful in his Light-Heavyweight Debut
Kaden Elliss

Could be Atlanta's Most Impactful Pass-Rusher
Kyle Filipowski

Scores 21 Points in Summer League Loss to Warriors
Darius Robinson

Ready to Make his Mark in 2025?
Jauan Jennings

Expected to Report for Training Camp
Trey Smith

the Only Player Still on the Franchise Tag
Cody Williams

Collects 22 Points in Summer League Loss on Sunday
Chase Elliott

Charges to A Finish of Third At Sonoma
Chase Briscoe

Finishes Second With his First Career Road-Course Top-Five at Sonoma
Christopher Bell

Rollercoaster Day Ends With Top-5 Finish at Sonoma
William Byron

Maintains the Regular-Season Points Lead
Kyle Busch

Earns A Hard-Fought Top-10 Finish At Sonoma
Jauan Jennings

Seeking New Deal or Trade From 49ers
Alex Ovechkin

Not Thinking About Retirement
PIT

Penguins Acquire Arturs Silovs
NHL

Nikolai Kovalenko Returns to Russia
Yoshinobu Yamamoto

Tosses Gem Against Giants
Shota Imanaga

Shuts Down Yankees on Sunday
Nathan Eovaldi

Dominant Again in Seventh Win
Tyler Reddick

Evades Near Upset to Remain Alive in In-Season Challenge
Ty Gibbs

One of Three Tylers to Make In-Season Challenge Semifinals
Kyle Larson

Curiously Mediocre at Sonoma Before Late-Race Crash
NASCAR

John H. Nemechek Edges Out Teammate to Make In-Season Challenge Semifinal
Alex Bowman

Ty Dillon Bumps Alex Bowman to Advance to In-Season Challenge Semifinal
A.J. Dillon

Not a Lock for a Roster Spot?
Chicago White Sox

Billy Carlson Goes 10th Overall to White Sox
Cincinnati Reds

Steele Hall Selected Ninth by Cincinnati
Toronto Blue Jays

Blue Jays Select JoJo Parker with Eighth Overall Pick
Boston Celtics

Damian Lillard Drawing Interest from the Celtics
Miami Marlins

Marlins Select Aiva Arquette With Seventh Overall Pick
Pittsburgh Pirates

Pirates Select Seth Hernandez with Sixth Overall Pick
Kyle Stowers

Punishes Former Team with Three-Homer Game
St. Louis Cardinals

Cardinals Select Liam Doyle with Fifth Overall Pick
Daniel Gafford

Agrees to Contract Extension with Dallas
Colorado Rockies

Rockies Select Ethan Holliday Fourth Overall
Seattle Mariners

Kade Anderson Selected Third Overall by Seattle
Ha-Seong Kim

X-rays on Ha-Seong Kim's Foot Come Back Negative
Los Angeles Angels

Tyler Bremner Selected Second Overall by Angels in 2025 MLB Draft
Washington Nationals

Nationals Select Eli Willits First Overall
Jake Meyers

to Miss More Than Three Weeks With Calf Injury
Cooper Flagg

Shut Down for Rest of Summer League
LeBron James

Hasn't Requested a Trade
Quinshon Judkins

Following Quinshon Judkins Arrest, NFL Declines Comment
Travis Hunter

Earning Praise in Jaguars Camp for Work Ethic
Memphis Grizzlies

Cole Anthony, Grizzlies Agree to Contract Buyout
Edward Cabrera

Hopeful to Avoid Injured List
Oneil Cruz

Absent on Sunday
Lars Nootbaar

Placed on 10-Day Injured List
Jake Burger

Scratched on Sunday
Shane Van Gisbergen

Can Anyone Beat Shane van Gisbergen at Sonoma?
Tyler Reddick

Better at Sonoma Than Record Shows
Chase Elliott

a Prime DFS Option at Sonoma
Julius Chestnut

Kalel Mullings Competing for RB3 Role
Michael McDowell

Struggling a Bit at Sonoma
Kimani Vidal

Fighting for No. 3 Job
Cam Hart

Recovering From Shoulder Surgery
NASCAR

Christopher Bell Has Never Finished Better Than Ninth at Sonoma
Ryan Blaney

Has Top-10 Upside at Sonoma
Quentin Johnston

Might Not Get Many Chances to Prove Himself
Tre Harris

Officially a Holdout
NASCAR

Sunday at Sonoma Will Likely Be a Long Race for Bubba Wallace
Kyle Larson

Is A Likely Top-Five Contender for Sonoma
Ryan Preece

Points Position Could Affect Race at Sonoma
Todd Gilliland

Struggling to Find Speed at Sonoma
Ty Gibbs

May be an Underrated Favorite to Compete for the Win at Sonoma
Travis Etienne Jr.

Needs to Bounce Back in 2025
Alexandre Sarr

Plays Well in Summer League Loss to Phoenix
Yang Hansen

Looks Good on Friday Night
Erik Karlsson

Open to Move Away From Pittsburgh
Zach Hyman

Hopes to be Ready for Start of Next Season
SJ

Jeff Skinner Joins Sharks on One-Year Contract
Kon Knueppel

Struggles in Summer League Win
Walter Clayton Jr.

Plays Well on Friday Night
Cody Williams

Scores 21 Points in Summer League Loss
Kyle Filipowski

Leads the Way on Friday Night
Isaiah Jackson

Signs Three-Year Extension
Marvin Bagley III

Joining the Wizards
Herbert Jones

Signing Extension with Pelicans
Jacob Toppin

Returning to Hawks
Ryan Reaves

Traded to Sharks
Vladislav Kolyachonok

Moves to Dallas
Matt Dumba

Lands in Pittsburgh
Mackie Samoskevich

Re-Signs with Panthers on One-Year Deal
Josh Manson

Inks Two-Year Extension with Avalanche
EDM

Isaac Howard Signs Three-Year, Entry-Level Contract With Oilers
Tallison Teixeira

Set For His First UFC Main Event
Derrick Lewis

Set To Headline UFC Nashville
Gabriel Bonfim

Looks For His Third UFC Win
Stephen Thompson

Returns At UFC Nashville
Steve Garcia

Looks To Extend His Win Streak
Calvin Kattar

In Dire Need Of Victory
Morgan Charrière

Morgan Charriere A Favorite At UFC Nashville
Nate Landwehr

Aims To Bounce Back
MMA

Austen Lane Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Gary Woodland

Looking to Find Rhythm at Scottish Open
Aaron Rai

Brings Consistent Play to Scottish Open
Maverick McNealy

a Solid Value Play at Scottish Open
Aldrich Potgieter

Making Scottish Open Debut
Tom Kim

Looks to Rebound at Scottish Open
Brian Harman

a Safe Option at Scottish Open
Luke Clanton

a Sneaky Value Play at Scottish Open
Sam Burns

Looking to Stay Hot at Scottish Open
Nicolai Hojgaard

May Feel More at Home in Europe
Harry Hall

Showing Fine Form Heading to Scotland
Ryan Fox

Playing Well Since Early Spring Struggles
Max Greyserman

has Solid History at the Genesis Scottish Open
Harris English

Aims High for Scotland Next
Corey Conners

Primed for the Genesis Scottish Open
Daniel Brown

Attempts the Scottish Swing Again
Jacob Bridgeman

Needs Putter to Work at Genesis Scottish Open
Scottie Scheffler

Headlines Field at Genesis Scottish Open
Rory McIlroy

a Smart Play for Scottish Open
Adam Scott

Looking to Build on History at The Renaissance Club
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF