X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

How Sustainable is High Fastball Usage? Hunter Greene, Justin Steele Analysis

hunter greene fantasy baseball rankings draft sleepers pitcher waiver wire

Jon Anderson looks at two young starting pitchers, Hunter Greene and Justin Steele, that are impressing early in 2022, but may have a worrisome pitch usage rate for sustained fantasy baseball success.

Hunter Greene and Justin Steele have looked very sharp to start the 2022 season. They are both trendy waiver wire additions in fantasy leagues right now, but I noticed something very interesting about these two guys. They have both been extremely reliant on their four-seam fastball in their first two outings, and in Greene's case, he's been throwing the ball harder than anybody you'll typically see not coming out of the bullpen.

Greene just set a record for the most 100-plus MPH pitches thrown in a single game (39). Steele only averages 92.4 MPH on his fastball but he's used it 63.4% of the time in his first two starts.

I wanted to dive a bit into the historical data to see how common it is for a pitcher to use a fastball this often, and how that plays out.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

60%+ Fastball Usage

I checked 2018, 2019, and 2021 to see how many pitchers that made at least 20 starts used their four-seam fastball more than 60% of the time. Here is the whole list:

You can see it's a very short list, and not exactly a list of aces. The lone exception here is Verlander, who had tons of success in 2018 despite the heavy fastball usage.

So far in 2022, we have already seen seven starting pitchers throw their four-seam fastball over 60% of the time.

Those names: Triston McKenzie (69.3%), Jake Odorizzi (67.8%), Hunter Greene (65.7%), Justin Steele (63.1%), Joan Adon (62.1%), Michael Kopech (61.8%), Logan Gilbert (60.6%).

It is quite possible that this is just a consequence of the fact that pitchers are just getting going. These guys are still getting stretched out, and it's entirely possible that they're just relying on their heater this much because of that and this trend will not continue.

Staying focused on the young guys, Green and Steele, we find that neither of them seems to have a very deep arsenal. Here are the breakdowns of their pitch usages so far.

Hunter Greene 2022 Pitch Usage

Pitch # Thrown
4-Seam Fastball 113
Slider 41
Changeup 18

Justin Steele 2022 Pitch Usage

Pitch # Thrown
4-Seam Fastball 99
Slider 47
Sinker 5
Curveball 5
Changeup 1

Steele has five different pitches, but you can see he's been very hesitant to use anything but the four-seamer or the slider. As for Greene, he seems to only have three pitches to thrown, and there's not much confidence being shown in the changeup thus far.

I think this is pretty bad news for these two guys. It's not unheard of for a starter with 80%+ of their pitch mix being dedicated to two pitches to have success (Tyler Glasnow is a positive case for this), but it's typically the exception rather than the rule.

The other note to mention on Steele is that his fastball hasn't even been very good in terms of earning strikes. The pitch has just a 25% CSW% and a bad 5% SwStr%. He has yet to allow a barrel on the pitch, which explains a lot of his success, but it seems very unlikely to me that the pitch will continue to have success given its lack of velocity (92.4 average mph) and how often he throws it. It's a different story for Greene, at least in terms of velocity – so let's talk about that.

 

Velocity Sustainability

So far, Hunter Greene has thrown 113 fastballs and they have AVERAGED 100.0 miles per hour. That is incredible stuff. I again looked at every starter with 20+ GS since 2018, but this time I wanted to see who had the highest average velocities on their fastballs. I've included 2022 data here just to show where Greene lines up.

We see Greene towering over the field here, and we also see that usage being way, way above the rest.

So there are two possibilities at hand.

  1. Greene throws the ball way harder than anybody else in recent baseball history.
  2. Greene is maxing out effort-wise early on due to adrenaline and the desire to have early success in his rookie year.

I'm going to go with #2 there. I am fairly certain that most pitchers who average 96 or above in the big leagues COULD average 100 if they really wanted to, but they simply know that it's not safe or sustainable. You do not want to be throwing the ball as hard as you possibly can if your goal is to throw a full season's worth of innings.

Now, I suppose it's possible that Greene isn't doing that. Maybe he could average 103 if he wanted, and he's holding back a bit and just averaging 100. I'm not sure what the limits are on human biology, but I think averaging 103 like that might be past them. I would wager quite a bit of money that Greene's average fastball velocity is going to be around 97-98 as we move forward.

This isn't to say that a 97-mile-per-hour fastball isn't really fast and tough to hit, you can tell above that averaging 97 would put him right with the league leaders over the last three full seasons. I'm not trying to say that his fastball will be a bad one just because he'll lose a couple of ticks on it.

What I am saying is that the fastball will perform worse if/when it comes down a bit in velocity. Right now, the 18.6% SwStr% he's put together on his four-seamer leads the league. It has also gone over the fence three times in two starts and been barreled up four times. I don't think anything above a 16% SwStr% on a four-seam fastball can be sustained. Alek Manoah led the league in SwStr% on the four-seam last season at 15.3%, and only five pitchers even managed above 14%.

 

Conclusion

Both of these pitchers are overly reliant on their four-seam fastball. In the case of Steele, it appears that he has way over-performed on the pitch given its lack of velocity and how often it is thrown at hitters. Louder contact is inevitably coming soon, so I would avoid Steele on waivers in favor of other names.

As for Greene, the velocity and the usage of the four-seamer just have to come down. The big worry with him is that he's only shown us two other pitches so far, which is really limiting his options as far as adjusting goes. Greene is a very talented arm with a bright future, but I think he's going to have a bumpy road ahead of him as Major League hitters get some plate appearances against them. I would be looking to sell Greene in redraft leagues right now.



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy baseball app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, sleepers, prospects & more. All free!



More Fantasy Baseball Advice




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

A.J. Dillon

Not a Lock for a Roster Spot?
Chicago White Sox

Billy Carlson Goes 10th Overall to White Sox
Cincinnati Reds

Steele Hall Selected Ninth by Cincinnati
Toronto Blue Jays

Blue Jays Select JoJo Parker with Eighth Overall Pick
Boston Celtics

Damian Lillard Drawing Interest from the Celtics
Miami Marlins

Miami Marlins Select Aiva Arquette with Seventh Overall Pick
Pittsburgh Pirates

Pirates Select Seth Hernandez with Sixth Overall Pick
Kyle Stowers

Punishes Former Team with Three-Homer Game
St. Louis Cardinals

Cardinals Select Liam Doyle with Fifth Overall Pick
Daniel Gafford

Agrees to Contract Extension with Dallas
Colorado Rockies

Rockies Select Ethan Holliday Fourth Overall
Seattle Mariners

Kade Anderson Selected Third Overall by Seattle
Los Angeles Angels

Tyler Bremner Selected Second Overall by Angels in 2025 MLB Draft
Washington Nationals

Nationals Select Eli Willits First Overall
Cooper Flagg

Shut Down for Rest of Summer League
LeBron James

Hasn't Requested a Trade
Quinshon Judkins

Following Quinshon Judkins Arrest, NFL Declines Comment
Travis Hunter

Earning Praise in Jaguars Camp for Work Ethic
Memphis Grizzlies

Cole Anthony, Grizzlies Agree to Contract Buyout
Edward Cabrera

Hopeful to Avoid Injured List
Oneil Cruz

Absent on Sunday
Lars Nootbaar

Placed on 10-Day Injured List
Jake Burger

Scratched on Sunday
Iván Herrera

Ivan Herrera Back in Action on Sunday
Sean Manaea

Reinstated From Injured List
Shane Van Gisbergen

Can Anyone Beat Shane van Gisbergen at Sonoma?
Tyler Reddick

Better at Sonoma Than Record Shows
Chase Elliott

a Prime DFS Option at Sonoma
Julius Chestnut

Kalel Mullings Competing for RB3 Role
Michael McDowell

Struggling a Bit at Sonoma
Carlos Correa

Returns to Twins Lineup
Connor Norby

Placed on 10-Day Injured List
Kimani Vidal

Fighting for No. 3 Job
Cam Hart

Recovering From Shoulder Surgery
NASCAR

Christopher Bell Has Never Finished Better Than Ninth at Sonoma
Ryan Blaney

Has Top-10 Upside at Sonoma
Quentin Johnston

Might Not Get Many Chances to Prove Himself
Tre Harris

Officially a Holdout
NASCAR

Sunday at Sonoma Will Likely Be a Long Race for Bubba Wallace
Kyle Larson

Is A Likely Top-Five Contender for Sonoma
Ryan Preece

Points Position Could Affect Race at Sonoma
Todd Gilliland

Struggling to Find Speed at Sonoma
Ty Gibbs

May be an Underrated Favorite to Compete for the Win at Sonoma
Ricky Stenhouse Jr

. Should Move Up on Sunday
Ross Chastain

is a Likely Top-Five Contender for Sonoma
Josh Berry

Should Be Avoided in Fantasy at Sonoma
Chris Buescher

is A Great DFS Option to Consider for Sonoma Lineups
Riley Herbst

a Deep Sleeper at Sonoma
Joey Logano

May be A Sneaky DFS Option Who Can Pay Off for Sonoma Lineups
Austin Cindric

Could Austin Cindric Work for DFS Lineups at Sonoma?
Carson Hocevar

Is Carson Hocevar Worth Rostering For Sonoma DFS Lineups?
John Hunter Nemechek

Is John Hunter Nemechek A Sneaky DFS Play for Sonoma?
AJ Allmendinger

A.J. Allmendinger Probably More Valuable for DFS If He Doesn't Flip the Stage
Alec Bohm

Unlikely to Play on Sunday
Travis Etienne Jr.

Needs to Bounce Back in 2025
Wan'Dale Robinson

Wants More Downfield Opportunities this Season
Brady House

Homers Twice on Saturday
Quinshon Judkins

Arrested on Saturday for Battery and Domestic Violence
Terry McLaurin

Could be a Holdout at Training Camp
Roger McCreary

a Candidate for a Contract Extension?
Mike Evans

Buccaneers Could Have Difficult Time Retaining Mike Evans
Charles Cross

Could Sign Extension Before Training Camp
Xavier Restrepo

One to Watch Going into Training Camp
Calvin Ridley

Appears Re-Energized
Mark Andrews

Still a Key Piece in Ravens Offense
Ndamukong Suh

Officially Announces his Retirement
Jaylen Waddle

Motivated After Disappointing Season
Tre Harris

Still Unsigned
Alexandre Sarr

Plays Well in Summer League Loss to Phoenix
Yang Hansen

Looks Good on Friday Night
Erik Karlsson

Open to Move Away From Pittsburgh
Zach Hyman

Hopes to be Ready for Start of Next Season
SJ

Jeff Skinner Joins Sharks on One-Year Contract
Kon Knueppel

Struggles in Summer League Win
Walter Clayton Jr.

Plays Well on Friday Night
Cody Williams

Scores 21 Points in Summer League Loss
Kyle Filipowski

Leads the Way on Friday Night
Isaiah Jackson

Signs Three-Year Extension
Marvin Bagley III

Joining the Wizards
Herbert Jones

Signing Extension with Pelicans
Jacob Toppin

Returning to Hawks
Dalton Knecht

Avoids Serious Injury
Javon Small

Signs Two-Way Deal
Ryan Reaves

Traded to Sharks
Vladislav Kolyachonok

Moves to Dallas
Matt Dumba

Lands in Pittsburgh
Mackie Samoskevich

Re-Signs with Panthers on One-Year Deal
Josh Manson

Inks Two-Year Extension with Avalanche
EDM

Isaac Howard Signs Three-Year, Entry-Level Contract With Oilers
Tallison Teixeira

Set For His First UFC Main Event
Derrick Lewis

Set To Headline UFC Nashville
Gabriel Bonfim

Looks For His Third UFC Win
Stephen Thompson

Returns At UFC Nashville
Steve Garcia

Looks To Extend His Win Streak
Calvin Kattar

In Dire Need Of Victory
Morgan Charrière

Morgan Charriere A Favorite At UFC Nashville
Nate Landwehr

Aims To Bounce Back
MMA

Austen Lane Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Vitor Petrino

Set For His Heavyweight Debut
Tuco Tokkos

Set To Open Up UFC Nashville Main Card
Junior Tafa

Set For Light-Heavyweight Bout
Jalen Williams

Signs Contract Extension With Thunder
Alijah Martin

Agrees to Two-Way Deal With Raptors
Tristan Vukcevic

Set to Return to Washington
Anfernee Simons

Celtics Are "Actively Trying to Trade" Anfernee Simons
Gary Woodland

Looking to Find Rhythm at Scottish Open
Aaron Rai

Brings Consistent Play to Scottish Open
Maverick McNealy

a Solid Value Play at Scottish Open
Aldrich Potgieter

Making Scottish Open Debut
Tom Kim

Looks to Rebound at Scottish Open
Brian Harman

a Safe Option at Scottish Open
Luke Clanton

a Sneaky Value Play at Scottish Open
Sam Burns

Looking to Stay Hot at Scottish Open
Nicolai Hojgaard

May Feel More at Home in Europe
Harry Hall

Showing Fine Form Heading to Scotland
Ryan Fox

Playing Well Since Early Spring Struggles
Max Greyserman

has Solid History at the Genesis Scottish Open
Harris English

Aims High for Scotland Next
Corey Conners

Primed for the Genesis Scottish Open
Daniel Brown

Attempts the Scottish Swing Again
Jacob Bridgeman

Needs Putter to Work at Genesis Scottish Open
Scottie Scheffler

Headlines Field at Genesis Scottish Open
Rory McIlroy

a Smart Play for Scottish Open
Adam Scott

Looking to Build on History at The Renaissance Club
Justin Rose

Hopes Month Hiatus Helps Him Bounce Back at Scottish Open
NHL

Tyler Johnson Retires After 13 NHL Seasons
Jack McBain

Inks New Five-Year Deal with Mammoth
Cam York

Re-Signs with Flyers for Five Years
Jake Knapp

Fits the Mold for Success at The Renaissance Club
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF