RADIO
Welcome back to the PGA DFS: Vegas Report. Patrick Cantlay captured his second career title at the Memorial, shooting a final round eight-under 64 to eclipse Adam Scott by two shots. Cantlay had been knocking on the door recently with seven top-10 performances in his last 12 events, so it shouldn't come as much of a surprise that the now eighth-ranked player in the world was finally able to enter the winner's circle again.
Our betting card finally got back on track with a big event. Adam Scott (35/1) concluded the weekend in second place, while Marc Leishman produced a fifth-place showing of his own. We were in a prime position to hit our third outright winner of the season but were forced to settle for our 17th top-five performance instead.
Not to be outdone, our head-to-head wager of Jason Kokrak (-110) over Kyle Stanley (-110) was able to find the winner's circle after Stanley missed the cut on Friday. The victory increases our record to (14-6-2) on the year and takes our units won to +9.07. With the RBC Canadian Open on tap, let's take a deeper dive into some value plays we will be targeting in Canada and try to keep this momentum rolling.
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2019 RBC Canadian Open
For an in-depth breakdown of the top DraftKings and Fanduel plays, check out Joe Nicely's weekly Horse For The Course that highlights the best fits for the week's course.
To see who the RotoBaller staff is selecting in the weekly 'One and Done' contest, click here.
Hamilton Golf and Country Club
6,915 Yards - Par 70 - Greens Poa
The PGA Tour heads to Canada this weekend for the RBC Canadian Open. After being held at Glen Abbey Golf Course for the past four seasons, the event will move to Hamilton Golf and Country Club for the first time since 2012.
Located in Ancaster, Ontario, renowned English architect Harry Colt designed 18 of the current 27 holes in 1914, with Robbie Robinson adding the additional 9 in 1974. The course was lengthened and renovated in the late 1990s and has been built to provide players with a difficult task throughout the venue. The course is a tight Par-70 that measures slightly under 7,000 yards, making it one of the shortest stops during the 2019 PGA calendar season. Fairways are wide, but the rough is exceptionally penal for those that fail to find the short grass.
The facility went through a particularly rough winter. Ice and snow covered the grounds and caused a chemical reaction to its greens. The shade patterns of the trees were going to cause even further damage, so the club was forced to eliminate a handful of them - substantially more than their regular maintenance program typically removes. If the course dries out over the next few days and the rough stays at a reasonable length, scoring will be more complicated than some might be expecting. However, if they overcompensate and make the course too wet, it is going to be target practice for all the players into the greens.
RBC Canadian Open Best Bets
#1 Rory McIlroy - 10/1
DK Price $11,200, FD Price $12,000
You don't see me jump this far up the board often, but I feel inclined to take on a little extra exposure to this event. I have Rory McIlroy right around a 14 percent chance to capture the title this weekend, which allows me to grab a four percent edge on the market. That might not sound like much, but futures betting is always challenging to find an advantage with the prices you get offered - especially when you reach the very top of the betting sheet.
After last week's missed cut at the Memorial, McIlroy could end up being the forgotten stud of the big three. Outside of his failed adventures at Muirfield, the fourth-ranked player in the world has posted nine top-nine results in his other 10 events and might be able to take advantage of Hamilton's greens if they decide to oversaturate the grass. McIlroy has always excelled at tree-lined courses that have soft putting surfaces, and I believe while everyone else could be looking ahead to Pebble Beach, the 30-year-old might be able to sneak across the border with the title.
To make this card work, I will be decreasing my usual win total by 20 percent. That will allow me to limit my exposure to this tournament but still allow me to grab the players I have targeted. I know the narrative is that longshot golfers are the only ones that win the week before a major, but McIlroy has my best win equity this weekend and is priced in a way that yields long-term value.
#2 Sergio Garcia - 30/1
DK Price $9,500 FD Price $10,700
I think most DFS players will veer towards Henrik Stenson and his $400 discount on DraftKings. I somewhat understand the thought process behind it with the Swede ranking first in strokes gained approach, third in driving accuracy and fourth in proximity over 200 yards in my model, but the issue is that I don't incorporate putting in my research. I think it is a fluky statistic to look at from a week-to-week basis, but sometimes individual players can't break out of their slump, and things need to be reevaluated. I don't mind Stenson as a cash-game play and believe he will put together a quality performance, but outright wagering and GPP contests require a more boom-or-bust approach.
Sergio Garcia has been picking up a little steam throughout the industry in the past few days, but we are still looking at a spot where the Spaniard is projected to be one of the lowest owned options over $8,700 on DraftKings. It doesn't hurt that the 39-year-old is sandwiched in between Webb Simpson, Scott Piercy and Henrik Stenson with his price on DraftKings, and those three men should combine to soak up over 50 percent of ownership in DFS contests.
Garcia's roughly 10 percent projection is a bargain, and his $9,500 tag should be considered a steal at a venue that rewards long iron play. I have 33/1 being the proper price for him in Canada, but as was the case with Adam Scott last weekend, this feels like a spot where my model is ever so slightly undervaluing the 10-time PGA Tour winner. I know his price is drifting all over the place throughout the industry, so for the sake of parity, I would consider him at 28/1 or above.
#3 Adam Hadwin - 70/1
DK Price $8,300, FD Price $9,300
No Canadian has won the RBC Canadian Open since Pat Fletcher in 1954. That is no doubt discouraging, but despite Corey Conners potentially being the best-suited game wise to do it, Adam Hadwin might actually be the most likely. Hadwin's irons have been known to run extremely hot and cold, but that isn't necessarily a negative when taking a shot with him at his $8,300 price tag on DraftKings. His bad rounds tend to tank his overall standings in strokes gained approach, ranking 106th in the field in his last 24 rounds, but Hadwin has gained at least 4.7 strokes with his irons twice in his past 11 events. We know he is going to be accurate off the tee and perhaps some quality iron play and a hot putter will help him to break Canada's curse.
Hadwin's 7.3 percent projected ownership and 70/1 outright price are both extremely intriguing, and I believe if we weren't entering the weekend with this narrative of the Canadian being unable to win his countries biggest event, we would be looking at him in the mid-to-high 50s.
#4 Kevin Tway - 90/1
DK Price $7,700, FD Price $9,200
Kevin Tway is one of the most intriguing golfers to me this weekend. He held a 36-hole solo lead and 54-hole co-lead at the event last season but eventually imploded on Sunday with a final round 76. While the venue has changed and his game might be better suited for a bombers test like Glen Abbey, Hamilton Country Club isn't necessarily a venue that will be impossible for him to find success.
His father captured the title at Hamilton in 2003, and with everyone confused by how exactly the course will play this weekend, Tway should be able to use some family insight to his advantage. A share of 19th place during the last time he teed it up at the Charles Schwab Classic was his best result in nearly six months, and he just missed Monday qualifying for the U.S. Open after losing in a seven-man playoff. Tway's motivation is there knowing he will need to win to get into Pebble Beach next week, and his game stacks up nicely for the way the venue is set up this weekend.
The American ranks inside the top-50 compared to the field in strokes gained approach, three-putt avoidance, ball striking, bogey avoidance and scoring average before the cut, and while none of his rankings might jump off the page, there also isn't an area where the 105th-ranked player in the world will destroy his chances. He has proven in the past that he can win at a shorter track, and I don't think taking the driver out of his hands on most holes is necessarily a negative. Tway is currently projected to be right around three percent owned because he is located in the same region with Aaron Wise, Joaquin Niemann, Jonas Blixt and Erik Van Rooyen, but there is excellent contrarian value if you decide to pivot to Tway. The 30-year-old has gained strokes with his irons in four of his past five events and has gained strokes on both Bent/Poa greens.
#5 Russell Henley - 150/1
DK Price $7,500, FD Price $8,900
It has been a tough stretch of golf recently for Russell Henley, who has fallen to 168th in the world. However, things are not all negative from a statistical perspective. The American ranks inside the top 25 compared to the field in his last 12 rounds when it comes to proximity from over 200 yards, strokes gained ball striking and strokes gained approach.
There are two things I really like about Henley this week. For starters, par-five scoring will not carry as much of a premium. While you do need to score on the two chances you get, you aren't stuck with 22 percent of the holes being played at a longer distance, which in and of itself adds to my second point. Henley is a superb ball striker and long-iron player, but he can struggle when faced with more extended courses. In theory, allowing the 30-year-old to find fairways and hit from the same layup spots as everyone else should present the American with an opportunity to make a run this weekend if his putter can heat up.
We have reached a territory price wise where Henley is nothing more than a flier, but the course fit makes sense, and the 30-year-old has spent his entire career going through ups and downs with his game. He is going to break out of his slump at some point, and it seems to be trending in that direction with how he is currently striking the ball.
#6 Ollie Schniederjans - 175/1
DK Price $7,000, FD Price $8,200
I've noted numerous times about how betting Ollie Schniederjans has become an addiction for me. Ninety-nine percent of the time it is just something that I do in secrecy, but every once in a while I will add him to an article if his price is right.
Schniederjans ranks second in his past 24 rounds in three-putt avoidance and inside the top-20 in proximity from over 200 yards. The former number one ranked amateur in the world has always been a streaky birdie marker, and that style can be conducive to finding success at a venue that could yield a plethora of birdie opportunities. Schniederjans is worth a risk in GPP events at his $7,000 price tag and one percent projected ownership and makes for an equally intriguing flier at his 160/1 outright number.
#7 Hudson Swafford - 350/1
DK Price $6,500, FD Price $7,800
Hudson Swafford's current form doesn't quite register as a player to keep an eye on this weekend, but his history in Canada does make him worth a second look. Priced at $6,500 on DraftKings, Swafford is only projected to carry around a three percent projected ownership but has finished inside the top-35 the last three times he has teed it up at this event.
The course change does throw some of that out the window, but the American is ranked inside the top-10 in the field when it comes to three-putt avoidance, along with being ranked top-50 in par-five average, par-three average, proximity over 200 yards and strokes gained approach. The volatility is unquestioned with this selection, but we don't need much of an investment to take a shot on the American at odds of 350/1.
DraftKings Cash-Game Play of the Week
Henrik Stenson - $9,100
We have already talked slightly about my feelings on Henrik Stenson this week, so this doesn't need to be a lengthy recap of why he is my cash-game play of the week. The Swede has made seven straight cuts and has earned at least 2.5 strokes on his approach shots in his last seven trackable events - averaging 5.54 shots per tournament.
The thing I like most about Stenson is his price tag. At $9,100 on DraftKings, there is a real case to be made that you could start your roster construction in cash-game lineups with the 43-year-old. Remember, cash-games aren't meant to be boom-or-bust. Our goal is to build a roster that can get 6-of-6 through, and we don't need to worry about ownership percentages. Jim Furyk is another player who almost made this list, and I see nothing wrong with Stenson at $9,100 and Fuyrk at $8,800 beginning your head-to-head lineups.
DraftKings GPP Play of the Week
Rory McIlroy - $11,200
(See above for reasoning)
My Top 30 Ranked Golfers For The Week
Key Stats: SG Approach 25%, Proximity From 200+ Yards 20%, Par-Three Average 15%, Ball Striking 15%, Three-Putt Avoidance 15% and Par-Five Average 10%
70% Stats/30% Form
Head-to-Head Play of the Week
Ollie Schniederjans -110 over Nick Taylor -110
Ollie Schniederjans $7,000 price tag on DraftKings vs. Nick Taylor $7,100 price tag on DraftKings
Ollie Schniederjans 1.9 percent projected ownership vs. Nick Taylor 1.9 percent projected ownership
1.10 Units to Win 1.00
I admit I might need to have my sanity checked with recommending Ollie Schniederjans in a head-to-head wager. There are very few golfers in the world who are more erratic than the 25-year-old, and that is something we want to avoid with these types of bets. However, I see a spot that is presenting value and not much else on the board that is catching my eye.
Nick Taylor is in an awkward position this weekend at Hamilton Country Club. The Canadian has made two of five cuts in his Countries home championship in his career and has failed to finish inside the top-50. To make matters slightly worse, the 31-year-old enters the week having missed two straight cuts, including a recent stretch of golf that has seen him lose strokes with his irons in eight of his last 10 events.
I know Schniederjans isn't the prototypical candidate you would want to target in head-to-head spots, but he has made three of his past four cuts and two of his three at the RBC Canadian Open. The Americans volatility takes away a bit of the advantage we have in this situation, but I have this line closer to -130 for Schniederjans and am ok getting into a battle that presents more irregularity than usual. There's a possibility that I will need to get my head examined on Friday when the former No. 1 amateur in the world misses the cut spectacularly, but I think we have multiple paths to victory this weekend - which includes a possibility where both miss the weekend. However, I wouldn't be placing this wager if I believed that is what would happen and will predict that we see Taylor miss the final two rounds, while Schniederjans eventually settle in somewhere inside the top-50. Good luck this weekend at the RBC Canadian Open, and I will be back for the U.S. Open next Wednesday!
2019 Head-to-Head Record (14-6-2)
+9.07 Units Year-To-Date From H2H Bets
|
Tournament |
Head-to-Head Bet |
Bet |
My Picks Finish |
Opponent Finish |
Result |
Total |
|
Safeway Open |
Sangmoon Bae +130 Over Chris Kirk |
1.00 Units to Win 1.30 |
MC (+2) |
MC (E) |
Loss |
-1.00 |
|
CIMB Classic |
Kevin Na -120 over Kevin Tway |
1.50 Units to Win 1.25 |
T19 (-17) |
T27 (-13) |
Win |
1.25 |
|
CJ Cup |
Paul Casey +100 over Marc Leishman |
1.25 Units to Win 1.25 |
T18 (-8) |
T18 (-8) |
Push |
0 |
|
WGC-HSBC |
Thomas Pieters +120 over Kevin Na |
1.00 Units to Win 1.20 |
T18 (-1) |
T54 (+10) |
Win |
1.20 |
|
Shriners |
Austin Cook +100 over Russell Henley |
1.00 Units to Win 1.00 |
MC (+1) |
MC (-1) |
Loss |
-1.00 |
|
Mayakoba |
Kevin Chappell +100 over Charley Hoffman |
1.25 Units to Win 1.25 |
T41 (-9) |
MC (+2) |
Win |
1.25 |
|
RSM Classic |
Patrick Rodgers -105 over Bronson Burgoon |
1.05 Units to Win 1.00 |
2nd (-19) |
MC (+2) |
Win |
1.00 |
|
Sony Open |
Jimmy Walker -115 over Kevin Na |
1.15 Units to Win 1.00 |
T51 (-6) |
Did Not Start |
Push |
0 |
|
Desert Classic |
Anders Albertson -110 over Anirban Lahiri |
1.10 Units to Win 1.00 |
T34 (-14) |
MC (-8) |
Win |
1.00 |
|
Farmers Insurance |
J.B. Holmes +130 over Branden Grace |
0.70 Units to Win 0.91 |
MC (+4) |
MC (+3) |
Loss |
-0.70 |
|
Farmers Insurance |
Jordan Spieth -110 over Alex Noren |
1.10 Units to Win 1.00 |
T35 (-7) |
MC (E) |
Win |
1.00 |
|
Waste Management |
Ryan Palmer +105 over Kevin Tway |
1.00 Units to Win 1.05 |
T60 (E) |
MC (E) |
Win |
1.05 |
|
Genesis Open |
Hideki Matsuyama -110 over Jordan Spieth |
1.10 Units to Win 1.00 |
T9 (-7) |
T51 (+1) |
Win |
1.00 |
|
Honda Classic |
Zach Johnson -115 over Kiradech Aphibarnrat |
1.43 Units to Win 1.25 |
T59 (+3) |
MC (+10) |
Win |
1.25 |
|
Arnold Palmer |
Chesson Hadley -110 over Chris Kirk |
0.82 Units to win 0.75 |
T17 (-5) |
T15 (-6) |
Loss |
-0.82 |
|
Players Championship |
Tiger Woods +105 over Rickie Fowler |
0.75 Units to win 0.79 |
T30 (-6) |
T47 (-3) |
Win |
0.79 |
|
Valero Texas Open |
Trey Mullinax -110 over Justin Harding |
1.10 Units to Win 1.00 |
MDF (+1) |
MC (+4) |
Win |
1.00 |
|
Masters |
Bubba Watson -115 over Louis Oosthuizen |
1.15 Units to Win 1.00 |
T12 (-8) |
T29 (-4) |
Win |
1.00 |
|
Wells Fargo Championship |
Joel Damen +120 over Chez Reavie |
0.75 Units to win 0.90 |
2nd (-12) |
T18 (-5) |
Win |
0.90 |
|
Byron Nelson |
Trey Mullinax -105 over Brian Stuard |
1.05 Units to Win 1.00 |
MC (+5) |
T59 (-7) |
Loss |
-1.05 |
|
PGA Championship |
Dylan Frittelli -105 over Cameron Champ |
1.05 Units to Win 1.00 |
MC (+8) |
T54 (+9) |
Loss |
-1.05 |
|
Memorial Tournament |
Jason Kokrak -110 over Kyle Stanley |
1.10 Units to Win 1.00 |
T62 (+3) |
MC (+2) |
Win |
1.00 |
2019 Outright Bets That Have Finished Inside the Top-10
|
Player |
Event |
Odds |
Finish Position |
|
Matt Kuchar |
Mayakoba Golf Classic |
66/1 |
1 |
|
Corey Conners |
Valero Texas Open |
200/1 |
1 |
|
Chesson Hadley |
CIMB Classic |
110/1 |
T2 |
|
Dustin Johnson |
Masters |
12/1 |
T2 |
|
Adam Scott |
Memorial |
33/1 |
2 |
|
Ryan Palmer |
CJ Cup |
150/1 |
T3 |
|
Sam Ryder |
Shriners Hospitals |
80/1 |
3 |
|
Chez Reavie |
Sony Open |
80/1 |
T3 |
|
Justin Thomas |
Waste Management |
10/1 |
3 |
|
Tommy Fleetwood |
Arnold Palmer |
35/1 |
T3 |
|
Rafa Cabrera-Bello |
Arnold Palmer |
60/1 |
T3 |
|
Scott Piercy |
RBC Heritage |
150/1 |
T3 |
|
Lucas Glover |
Honda Classic |
60/1 |
T4 |
|
Brooks Koepka |
Byron Nelson |
7/1 |
T4 |
|
Jason Day |
CJ Cup |
13/1 |
T5 |
|
Sergio Garcia |
WGC-Match Play |
45/1 |
T5 |
|
Jason Day |
Masters |
40/1 |
T5 |
|
Marc Leishman |
Memorial |
66/1 |
5 |
|
Zach Johnson |
RSM Classic |
40/1 |
T7 |
|
Kevin Kisner |
RSM Classic |
40/1 |
T7 |
|
Webb Simpson |
TOC |
25/1 |
8 |
|
Jason Day |
Players Championship |
40/1 |
T8 |
|
Hideki Matsuyama |
Players Championship |
40/1 |
T8 |
|
J.B. Holmes |
Safeway Open |
60/1 |
9 |
|
Gary Woodland |
Farmers Insurance |
28/1 |
T9 |
|
Hideki Matsuyama |
Genesis Open |
30/1 |
T9 |
|
Shubankar Sharma |
CIMB Classic |
150/1 |
T10 |
|
Troy Merritt |
RBC Heritage |
250/1 |
T10 |
