RADIO
We should have a three-horse race for the winner of the PLAYERS Championship, with Xander Schauffele sitting in first at -17, Wyndham Clark in second at -16, and Brian Harman a shot back at -15. Fourth place has two golfers tied at -13 which is four shots off Xander, who Harman or Clark will be looking to chase down today. The likes of Scottie Scheffler and Sahith Theegala sit five shots back of Xander and have the firepower to make a charge.
Xander has not fared well recently when in pressure-packed situations, often getting stuck in neutral on Sundays when in the final group. Today he faces that challenge again with a bunch of hungry major winners hot on his heels. It is going to be fascinating to see what happens.
You can find me on Twitter/X an unhealthy amount of the time @TheModelManiac, if you have any questions, compliments, or insults for me. My DFS style is very ownership-centric, and at times, this can make you feel like an unsuccessful DFS player. However, when a sneaky, low-owned golfer comes through for you, it is all worth it.
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Finishing Position Points vs. Ownership
The general logic for showdown has been to target golfers who played well the day before, particularly those who hit their irons well. This makes sense as you want to roster players who are playing good golf right now. We will also be using my DFS Showdown Model, which is available for premium members on the website and in our Discord. Code maniac will save you 10% off our PGA platinum package.
Round 4 showdowns add the element of finishing position points to the mix. It provides an immense leverage opportunity for those of us brave enough to click on names with a T30 associated with them. There is a five-point difference between second place and 15th place, the points equivalent of one extra birdie in a player's round. If somebody sitting outside the top 20 entering Round 4 has an amazing day, making only one extra birdie than the guys in the top five, they essentially nullify the finishing position advantage. Did we mention that they will also come in at a quarter of the ownership?
Ownership in DFS is king. If you are part of the 2% of the field that has John Huh shooting -9, 98% of the field is missing out on those points. This is where money is made in DFS and if we ignore finishing position points for the most part, there is a decent chance that one of the top points scorers is sitting outside the top 10 entering Round 4. There will be instances where the leaders continue to play well, and that is not ideal, but how many times have we seen a 45% owned overnight leader have his nerves get the better of him and shoot over par? In this scenario, you have a major edge over half the field.
Bozo Brainwash Brigade
You can click the most expensive six names in the top 5 and still have $3.4K left over. Another reason this slate is even more fascinating. If I were to guess the most duplicated lineup tomorrow, this is most likely it. Folks... don't be like the 25+ people who play these six guys in the same lineup. How do you expect to profit when you enter a $5 entry to win and split it with 1.5% of the field? The chance that the leaderboard ends up looking like this tomorrow is VERY unlikely! Don't be a part of the Bozo Brainwash Brigade, please.
Round 4 Weather
This looks like Round 1, where scores averaged the second lowest of this event's history. Expect tons of birdies and DFS points without finishing positions to eclipse 60 like they did in Round 1, especially if there is rain in the morning. Rain could soften up the course for the leaders, and we could see some low scores.
Round 4 Strategy
The weather looks pretty calm for the majority of the day, so mix in a few candidates who can win, with some less-owned golfers going off a little earlier to potentially take advantage of the softer conditions and less ownership, due to their position on the leaderboard.
Round 4 Power Rankings
The Power Rankings for Round 4
These are the golfers I will be looking to slot into my lineups for Round 4. The ownership numbers are projected for R4 of $1 PGA SHOWDOWN SINGLE ENTRY which is important to note, as contest size and entry fee impacts the ownership numbers of different golfers across the contests. Click here for a full field power rankings that is part of the DFS Showdown Model on RotoBaller's website.
$10K+
Favorite play: Scottie Scheffler at $12.6K is a little spendy, especially with him being a little injured right now. He seems to be still managing to play at about 85% of his capacity, and we really haven't seen that putter get hot yet. If that happens, who knows what Scheffler could end up doing. We are going to be fading Xander Schauffele as we are hoping he finishes third or worse after an uninspiring Saturday.
Other considerations: Rory McIlroy
$9K+
Favorite play: Wyndham Clark is the one option of the three who wins tomorrow. He is cheap enough to start with and still pile in a bunch of the $8K golfers we will share later. He has also shown that he is usually comfortable in the heat of the battle, beating out Xander Schauffele at the Wells Fargo last year.
Other considerations: Ludvig Aberg sits in T12 and really hasn't gained any strokes with the putter this week. Still, his tee-to-green game can sync up with the flat stick on a course layout that seems to be the type of venue the big-hitting rookie tends to have the most success so far, such as winning the RSM and playing nicely at Pebble Beach.
Other considerations: Viktor Hovland
$8K+
Favorite play: Sahith Theegala has been lurking around the top of the leaderboard despite losing three strokes around the greens. The putter has been scorching and the driver started hitting the grooves of the fairway a little more regularly. At $8.3K he is one of the few golfers close enough to have the round of the day AND win the tournament.
Other considerations: Tom Hoge, Brian Harman
$7K+
Favorite play: Christiaan Bezuidenhout is quietly leading the PLAYERS Championship on approach, while having gained a total of one stroke putting this week. If the flatstick decides to show up, the irons are just out of this world at this moment.
Other considerations: J.T. Poston, Si Woo Kim, Keith Mitchell, Chris Kirk, Sungjae Im, Austin Eckroat, Adam Scott
$6K+
Favorite play: Jake Knapp played really nicely in R3 after making the cut in his first PLAYERS. He will have seen a lot of these courses for the first time, so getting a few more Sawgrass reps under his belt will let Knapp lean into the iron play and putter in R4 to race up that leaderboard.
Other considerations: Sam Ryder, Brice Garnett, Peter Malnati
Good luck, and as always, may the odds be ever in your favor!!
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