RADIO
Round one of the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am was a wild one. Two players made 10's on the Par 5 18th once the wind picked up in the late afternoon. Five of the top 18 stroke gainers were not rostered in the showdown contest I was entered in. An utter dumpster fire of a day, with Kurt Kitayama the only golfer 20%+ owned who cracked the top-25 in DK points today. Hank Lebioda leads the field after shooting -8 around Monterey today, which everybody saw coming, validated by nobody rostering him in R1 showdown... let's dive into round 2.
This article is going to take a look at showdown slates after each completed round. You can find me on Twitter an unhealthy amount of the time @TheModelManiac, if you have any questions, compliments, or insults for me. My DFS style is very ownership-centric, and more often than not this can make you feel like an unsuccessful DFS player, but every now and then when a sneaky, low-owned golfer comes through for you, it is all worth it. In this article, we are going to break down the previous round's top performers and duds and use that information to derive a player pool full of upside and leverage.
The general logic to showdown has been to target golfers who played well the day before and particularly those who hit their irons well. This makes sense as you want to roster players who are playing good golf right now. These players will be higher owned and chalkier than golfers in the same price range, who had an off day, particularly with their irons. These are the golfers I am gravitating towards, as they could very easily bounce the following day at half the ownership.
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Ownership Analysis
Top Strokes Gainers
Hank Lebioda, Chad Ramey, Kyle Westmoreland, and David Lingmerth were not rostered in my showdown contest. Martin Trainer was 0.3% owned. Wild stuff. Shooting -5 on Spyglass was the same as shooting -7 on the other two courses, from a strokes gained perspective. Keith Mitchell had himself quite the round playing with Josh Allen as his partner for the week.
Top Points Scorers
If you want the top point scorer in your lineup tomorrow, chances are that he will be playing on Monterey. Although there are a few Pebble names on this list, the wind was rather timid today until we saw the teeth that Pebble has when the wind blew late in the afternoon. A large majority of my player pool will be playing Monterey tomorrow, which the majority of the public will be doing too, so we will need to get different somehow.
Highest Owned Golfers
Going into Round 2, these are the color codes we will be using to identify who we want to target. Think of it as a traffic light with four colors. Stop at mega chalk and go when we see leverage that makes sense.
By taking a look at yesterday's ownership, we can get an idea of where people will be willing to go in R2 (DK points include finishing position).
- Mega chalk: A popular player who played well yesterday.
- Chalk: a) A popular player who played okay yesterday b) A less popular player who played well yesterday.
- Pivots: a) A popular player who played poorly yesterday b) A less popular player who played okay yesterday.
- Leverage: A less popular player who played poorly yesterday.
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Round 2 Weather
The first tee time tomorrow is at 8:30 AM which would see those golfers playing the majority of their round in wind that will be gusting well above 20 mph. If the wind decides to adhere to what the weatherman is telling us, maybe a few holes will be a little less windy to close out their round, but by then, the damage most likely has been done. Golfers teeing off at 10:42 AM will potentially get an entire second nine of much more favorable conditions.
These guys will be going off after 10AM on Monterey
These guys will be going off after 10 AM on Pebble (if you want to avoid ownership and gamble on surviving the first nine)
Round 2 Power Rankings
These golfers can all be considered for cash games or double-ups. These rankings are not including the course that will be played. The fact that the best golfers for the round 2 showdown will all be playing Monterey tomorrow, means we are in store for some HORRIFIC ownership numbers.
PLEASE NOTE: If you want the entire showdown cheat sheet, it's free to download here.
The Monterey (Chalk) Squad
Before we get into the guys we want to target. There are 155 guys in the field, with a third of them playing Monterey, who will be in the player pool of everybody that takes the time to stack courses. Tomorrow's ownership is going to be on the same level as a R4 slate, as most people will be selecting Monterey players only.
If you are entering into large contests, with the wind blowing wild, ANYTHING is possible, so please feel free to leave as much salary on the table as you want if you are stacking late tee times. This is probably one of the few times I would ever suggest leaving several thousand dollars out there if you run out of combinations of players going off after 10. It's going to be chaos. Remember five of the top 18 golfers in R1 were not rostered. Tomorrow will be even crazier.
These golfers should be the most owned tomorrow based on their round 1 performance. Decision time.
$10,000: Jordan Spieth in chaotic weather seems like a match made in heaven. We will be leaning on Mav (below) a lot more than Spieth but he will find himself rostered by me.
$9,000: Maverick McNealy is going off about 2 hours after Spieth, Fitz, and Hovland. He also played a little worse than the three aforementioned superstars, but his pre-tournament popularity and price discount will still see him popular tomorrow. If we are going to eat chalk, let's eat the chalk that has the best opportunity to score well in much calmer conditions.
$8,000: Dean Burmester
$7,000: Joseph Bramlett, Brandon Wu, Garrick Higgo
$6,000: David Lingmerth, MJ Daffue
The Pivot People
These guys find themselves in the middle of the leaderboard. Their round did not go entirely according to plan, and we are banking on them to bounce back today.
$10,000: Nobody.
$9,000: Thomas Detry, Seamus Power
$8,000: Matt Kuchar (the wily old vet in weather that will need exceptional short game).
$7,000:
$6,000: Cody Gribble, Carl Yuan, Peter Malnati.
The Leverage Lads
The lowest-owned golfers who should give us the most leverage in a DFS Showdown slate.
$10,000: Nobody.
$9,000: Nobody.
$8,000: Alex Smalley will see a lot of my lineups.
$7,000: Mark Hubbard and Lanto Griffin. Sprinkle in the Pebble guys going off late as you feel fit if you have the guts)
$6,000: Brian Gay, Ryan Moore, Adam Schenk, Erik Barnes
Good luck this week and as always, may the odds be ever in your favor!!!
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