PGA Course Preview for the 2025 Masters: Scouting the Routing

As the frost recedes and Mother Earth slips into her favorite shade of green, 90 of the best golfers on the planet will play for the right to do the very same.

It's Masters week: Christmas for those of us who obsess over this sport 365 days a year, and a sacred patronage for anyone lucky enough to feel Augusta's immaculately manicured turf under their feet. Only one Green Jacket is awarded each year, and this week, unlike any other, the magnitude of the moment needs no description. For some in this field, Augusta National has been a paradise; for others, it is an increasingly frustrating puzzle. One thing is for certain, though: the title of Masters champion carries more weight in this sport than any other, and in six days' time, one of these 90 names will be permanently affixed in the annals of golfing history.

This piece will serve to break down every key trend and statistic I'm weighing to project a player's viability to don the Green Jacket at weeks end, and set our readers up to make the crucial decisions necessary on pre-week betting boards. Without further ado, here is my comprehensive scouting report on Augusta National Golf Club and the 2025 Masters!

The Golf Course

Augusta National Golf Club - Par 72; 7,545 yards

Past Champions

• 2024 - Scottie Scheffler (-11) over Ludvig Aberg
• 2023 - Jon Rahm (-12) over Brooks Koepka and Phil Mickelson
• 2022 - Scottie Scheffler (-10) over Rory McIlroy
• 2021 - Hideki Matsuyama (-10) over Will Zalatoris
• 2020 - Dustin Johnson (-20) over Sungjae Im and Cameron Smith
• 2019 - Tiger Woods (-13) over D. Johnson/B. Koepka/X. Schauffele
• 2018 - Patrick Reed (-15) over Rickie Fowler

Augusta National by the Numbers (Off-The-Tee):

• Average Fairway Width -- 50.7 yards; Widest on the PGA Tour
• Average Driving Distance -- 291.7 yards; 11th highest on Tour
• Driving Accuracy -- 70.9%; Highest on Tour
• Missed Fairway Penalty -- 0.38; 11th highest on Tour
  • Rough Penalty -- 0.25; 17th lowest on Tour
  • Non-Rough Penalty -- 0.42; 14th highest on Tour
  • Missed FW Penalty Fraction -- 2.6%; 14th lowest on Tour
• Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee Difficulty: (+0.007); 13th easiest on Tour

With its expansive fairways and tempered rough, Augusta National has long been considered one of the preeminent "Bombers Paradises" on the PGA Tour. Its generosity off of the tee will be one of the few allowances afforded to players this week, but an interesting development in recent years has been the surge we've seen this course display in the penalty dished out to exceptionally off-line tee shots.

Over the last four seasons, Augusta National has ranked inside the top 20 in Missed Fairway Penalty despite having some of the most benign rough and lower penalty fractions on the PGA Tour. This development speaks to a much more subtle driving test than we've seen in weeks past, as although a wayward tee shot around Augusta National isn't going to land you in the middle of a lake or rocky outcrop, any missed fairway this week will almost assuredly compromise your ability to create a birdie opportunity.

Still, with the widest fairways on the entire PGA Tour, it's difficult not to pay at least a bit of credence to the historical bomber narrative, and distance has correlated much more highly with success at Augusta than in an average week on Tour. I would advise a bit of caution to those leaning too heavily into driving metrics solely focused on finding the longest hitters.

Players like Bryson DeChambeau, Wyndham Clark and Matthew Wolff have found out in recent years that distance is far from the only prerequisite needed to conquer this classical layout. I'll be looking primarily for players who are above average in length, but still rate out fairly well in a few key accuracy metrics (Good Drive Percentage, Distance from Edge of Fairway, etc.).

Augusta National by the Numbers (Approach):

• Green in Regulation Rate -- 55.2%; Fourth lowest on the PGA Tour
• Strokes Gained: Approach Difficulty: (-0.050); Second toughest on Tour
• Key Proximity Ranges:
  • 200+ yards (accounted for 32.2% of approach shots in 2024)
  • 150-175 yards (19.5%)
  • 175-200 yards (18.3%)

While its wide fairways act as a bit of a "soft underbelly," the second shot and beyond is where Augusta National really begins to bear its teeth. Despite measuring well above average in square footage, the greens here at Augusta National routinely rank as some of the most difficult on Tour to find in regulation. In addition, many holes this week will be cut on such minute shelves that creating premier birdie chances will be reserved only for the most precise iron players in the field- especially with the multitude of long-iron approach shots required on Augusta's Par 3s and 4s.

Over 50% of approach shots in last year's Masters came from beyond 175 yards, and with only one par four on property measuring under 440 yards, I don't anticipate many instances this week where players will be able to hunt down flagsticks with a scoring club in hand.

Outside of the par fives, every other hole at Augusta National has played over par over the last 10 seasons and all but one of the Par 3s/4s have featured bogey rates over 20%. For this reason, hitting greens in regulation is usually all that's required to gain a leg up on the field around these demanding confines. I'll be looking closely at players who have shown a historic acumen for peppering the putting surfaces from 175 yards and beyond.

Stats like Strokes Gained per Shot, Proximity to the Hole, and Good Shot Percentage are valuable tools in any week. Still, as many have stated in the lead-up to this event (particularly regarding a certain Northern Irishman's chances), the safe, smart play at Augusta National is often the winning one. As such, I'll be looking at stats like GIR Rate and Poor Shot Avoidance from 175 yards and beyond (as well as Approach splits on other long, difficult golf courses where solid, conservative play becomes a real asset).

Augusta National by the Numbers (Around the Greens):

• Scrambling Percentage -- 52.4%; 5.2% below Tour Average 
• Sand Save Difficulty -- (-0.032); Eighth toughest on Tour
• Up-and-Down Difficulty (Fairway) -- (-0.104); Toughest on Tour
• Up-and-Down Difficulty (Rough) -- (-0.012); 11th toughest on Tour
• SG: Around the Green Difficulty: (-0.080); Toughest on Tour

The importance of precise iron play is further highlighted by the difficulty presented to those who cannot consistently hit greens in regulation. Augusta National has ranked as the hardest course on Tour to gain strokes around the greens in three of the last four seasons, and from its tightly mown fairways, no course on the planet requires as much precision with a wedge in hand.

These razer-thin fairway lies, combined with the severe undulation of the green complexes themselves, make an elite short game one of this tournament's key separators.

Looking back on this recent run of Masters champions, a world-class touch around the greens has proven to be one of the main through-lines connecting this eclectic bunch (Rahm, Scheffler, Hideki, Reed, Jordan Spieth, etc.), and even those who have tended to struggle around the greens on a week-to-week basis on Tour (D.J., Bubba Watson, Adam Scott), had at least showcased some historical acumen around Augusta National before their respective triumphs.

I'd go as far as to say that around the green play is my second-most-weighted category of the week after iron play (a sentiment I don't think I'll have anywhere else on the schedule this year). In particular, I'll be looking at a player's history chipping around Augusta National, along with a few reference points at other courses that feature similarly tight greenside surroundings (Riviera, Southern Hills, Memorial Park, etc.).

Augusta National by the Numbers (Putting):

• Average Green Size: 6,486 sq. feet
• Agronomy -- Bentgrass
• 3-Putt Percentage: 4.9% (1.9% above Tour Average)
• Strokes Gained: Putting Difficulty: (-0.022); Toughest on Tour

Moving onto the putting complexes themselves, things won't get any easier for players trying to pay off their work from tee to green. Augusta National is perhaps best known for its expansive greens featuring both lightning-fast speeds and severe undulation, and diving into the stats, it becomes abundantly clear just how demanding this combination is.

From a lag putting perspective, no course on the PGA Tour makes it harder to gain strokes, and only the Poa Annua Bermuda Triangle of Torrey Pines, Riviera, and Pebble Beach rank as harder putting tests from mid-range (5-15 feet). Interestingly enough, however, we have seen historically poor putters like Sergio Garcia, Matsuyama, and Zalatoris find repeated success on these greens, while some traditionally good putters (Patrick Cantlay, Matt Fitzpatrick, Tyrrell Hatton) have each had a devilish time finding their footing.

I'd attribute this primarily to a small sample (only four years of available strokes gained data), but there is certainly something to be said for players who have amassed enough experience to feel a bit more at ease in these treacherous confines. The best indicator I've found to have success on these greens has been lag putting, as you'll assuredly have more than your fair share of 50+ footers around Augusta.

However, with how heavily I'm weighing each of the other three categories, putting is the one facet of the game I'm comfortable coming in underweight on in my modeling. It's the only of the four stroke gained categories that historically comes in lower than its year-long average in terms of leaderboard correlation.

No matter how good you putt it around Augusta National, your score is only going in one direction if you don't possess the requisite tee-to-green skill we've alluded to in the previous three sections. Small weight to lag putting metrics like Approach Putt Performance/3-Putt Avoidance, but in general, I'm much more willing to accept a balky putter than someone coming in with pressing concerns elsewhere.

Key Stats Roundup (in order of importance):

• Approach proficiency 175 yards and beyond -- special emphasis on Green in Regulation Rate and Proximity Splits from these selected yardages.
• Positive (or at least trending) history at Augusta National
• Touch around the greens -- particularly from tightly mown collection areas as seen at Pinehurst/Riviera/Memorial Park in recent years
• Lag Putting -- particularly on lightning fast, undulating greens. I'd look at both 3-putt avoidance and Approach Putt Performance from >30 feet. (Again, course history could mitigate some overall putting concerns this week but I would still like to see players exhibit some sort of routine touch from long range).
• Driving Distance still gets the nod for me over accuracy, although I would be careful in touting players with a propensity to really spray the ball off of the tee. Players who excel in both facets (distance/accuracy), receive a sizable bump.
• Par 5 Scoring
• Bogey Avoidance

Did you know RotoBaller has a Premium DFS PGA subscription? Like what you read today? You can show your support for Ian by using the discount code BALLER when purchasing a PGA Premium Pass. You get 10% off and full access to all of our Premium PGA articles, DFS tools, and Lineup Optimizer! You also get access to weekly betting picks from Spencer Aguiar, one of the top betting minds in the industry.

End of the Season Totals: @rotoballer @BettorGolfPod

2017 +54.26 Units
2018 +55.88 Units
2019 +27.743 Units
2020 + 37.015 Units
2021 + 68.846 Units
2022 +67.485 Units

Total Winnings: +311.229 Units

Total Outright Wins Since 2017: 36

H2H Totals Inside Thread… https://t.co/pNQrSK1rFE

— Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) December 12, 2022

The Sunday Shortlist

Before the odds come out on Monday morning, here are two to three names I’ve identified as significant targets upon my initial research.

Collin Morikawa

Collin Morikawa moves into solo third with a birdie at No. 4. #themasters pic.twitter.com/0CcwYWzybq

— The Masters (@TheMasters) April 8, 2023

Over the last three years, at least, projecting the Masters winner hasn't necessarily represented the tallest of tasks in the golfing world. In 2022, Scheffler completed his ascendency to the top of the sport after securing three wins already in the season at the WM Open, Arnold Palmer Invitational, and WGC Match Play. One year later, Rahm parlayed three early-season wins in Hawaii, Palm Springs, and Los Angeles into his second Major Title, and last season, Scottie repeated the trick: capturing his second Masters title on the back of two wins and a runner-up finish leading into April.

Occam's Razor has been a very effective strategy when attempting to prognosticate our Masters' Champion, and while Morikawa hasn't managed to accrue similar trophy cabinets to the past three to don the Green Jacket, there are many metrics that suggest he should still be considered the in-form favorite at Augusta National.

Starting with the superpower we've all come to know, Collin's iron game is back at a familiar spot at the top of the PGA Tour rankings. He's gained an average of 4.8 strokes on Approach over his five tournament starts this year, a clip that, should it continue, would rank as the best single-season mark of his career. Collin has been particularly adept recently as well, gaining 8.1 and 4.8 strokes on approach at TPC Sawgrass and Bay Hill, respectively (each courses that feature a disproportionate number of middle and long-irons).

Morikawa also ranks inside the top five in two key driving metrics: Good Drive Percentage and Fairways Hit, which as mentioned earlier, could prove to be more important than many realize as Augusta trends towards a more penal driving test. In fact, over Collin' Masters career, he's never failed to gain less than two strokes with his driver, despite rating out below field average in distance each of the last four years.

But perhaps the biggest sticking point towards Morikawa's projection this week comes in the progressions he's made in the short game. Over his last 50 rounds, Collin ranks fifth in this field in Strokes Gained: Around the Greens. He's continually gained strokes at some of the Tour's most daunting recent short-game complexes like Bay Hill (+3.8), Pinehurst (+1.2), Muirfield Village (+1.4), and most notably for this week, Collin's shown a remarkable comfort here at Augusta National.

In four starts since his 2020 debut, Morikawa has never lost strokes with his putting or his chipping here at the Masters: gaining 4.0, 3.4, 4.5, and 0.8 strokes on and around the greens. Only Cameron Smith, Reed, Scheffler, and Russell Henley rate out better.

With this established history and a form sheet that includes two runner-ups and no finish worse than 17th this year, Collin's profile represents one of the highest floors in the field this week. He'll get plenty of chances to deploy the best iron play in the game with Augusta's expansive fairways, and for the first time in his career, I come in with few questions about his ability to navigate the greens.

My numbers have him neck-and-neck with the two top dogs on this week's odds-board, and at over 3x the price of Scottie Scheffler, I'll gladly take my chances that he can win the race to three Major titles before each of their 29th birthdays.

Jon Rahm

Back-to-back birdies for Jon Rahm and he reaches nine under par. #themasters pic.twitter.com/R8l8jyuL8j

— The Masters (@TheMasters) April 7, 2023

Typically, this is the part of the programming where I focus on an under-the-radar name from down the board. While the vast array of markets on offer from sports books will open the door to deploy some of the field's lesser-known commodities, Masters Champions don't tend to come from anywhere but the top of the week's odds board. With the average price of the winner sitting at +1730 over the last six years (with just one winner coming from above 20-1), history tells us this isn't a week to be splashing around on longshot propositions.

Luckily, if you do decide to pass up on Scottie or Rory at the very top, prices have been adjusted in the second-tier where we can responsibly fit two or three players with very compelling profiles. Jon Rahm comes in as my second-favorite of this six-man group, and his 16-1 price tag represents the best Masters' value we've been able to attain on the Spaniard since 2019.

It's not like he comes into the week with the same form concerns of a Ludvig or Xander either, recording finishes of ninth, fifth, sixth, sixth, and second over his previous five starts on LIV. Thus far in 2025, he leads that Tour in Birdie Average, ranks third in GIR %, and has averaged over 310 yards in Driving Distance.

With a win and four top 10's around Augusta National already to his name, I won't have to sell you particularly hard on Rahm's course fit here -- possessing a rare combination of elite ball-striking, reliable touch around the greens, and a putter that has gained him strokes in each of his last four starts.

But perhaps the best case to be made for Rahm comes in the unquantifiable realm. Last year, of course, Jon Rahm was the hottest item on property: a defending Masters Champion who, just three months previous, had shocked the golfing world by moving to the rival LIV Golf league. A league he'd publicly denounced a year prior.

The attention clearly took a toll on Jon, as for seemingly the first time in his Masters career, the Spaniard didn't appear comfortable on site. He recorded the worst putting week of his season (-4.0), ranked below field average in driving accuracy, and limped to a 45th-place finish in his title defense -- his worst ever Masters result.

However, Rahm did still prove he's got the game required to excel around Augusta National: leading the field with a GIR Rate of 71% -- 14 points higher than the field average. With Rory's hot start to the season, Scottie's bid to do something not seen at Augusta in 59 years, and Bryson's constant propensity to draw headlines, I don't see 2025 coming with nearly the amount of off-course distractions for 2023's Champion.

I like his winning propositions much better now that he's out of the greater limelight of golf media.

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