RADIO
The greatest meeting of land and sea in American golf is always among the more iconic routings we visit on an annual basis, but in recent years, the lack of elite headliners and an insistence on highlighting the "Am" portion of the AT&T Pro-Am has made this event little more to golf fans than a minor hurdle to clear before the real business is settled in Scottsdale and Riviera.
That all changed in 2024, however, as Pebble Beach's new "Signature Event" status brings with it a guaranteed prize pool of $20 million and a collection of talent we haven't seen since last year's Playoffs, ready to battle it out around these iconic links. This new no-cut format we'll be seeing at the Signature Events this year also comes with a change to the traditional Pebble Beach course rotation. Instead of the AmEx-style three-course cycle with a 54-hole cut, the 2025 AT&T Pro-Am will be split between two of Monterey County's iconic tracks. Similar to last week, players will spend their opening two rounds traveling between two different courses (Pebble Beach Golf Links and Spyglass Hill) before tackling two weekend rounds at the venue that gives this event its name. The three rounds at Pebble Beach don't just mean increased exposure to the legendary views off of the Monterey Peninsula but also an extra layer of predictability for golf bettors, as Pebble Beach remains the only course within the rotation with Shotlink compatibility and historic Strokes Gained data to draw from.
Before we get into the star-studded odds board on tap for golf bettors Monday morning, this piece will serve to set you up to make those crucial decisions before the market shifts later in the week. Without further ado, here is my comprehensive scouting. report on Pebble Beach Golf Links and the 2025 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am!
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The Golf Course(s)
Pebble Beach Golf Links - Par 72; 6,972 yards
Spyglass Hill - Par 72; 7,041 yards
Past Champions
- 2024 - Wyndham Clark (-17) over Ludvig Aberg (54 holes)
- 2023 - Justin Rose (-18) over Brendon Todd & Brandon Wu
- 2022 - Tom Hoge (-19) over Jordan Spieth
- 2021 - Daniel Berger (-18) over Maverick McNealy
- 2020 - Nick Taylor (-19) over Kevin Streelman
- 2019 - Phil Mickelson (-19) over Paul Casey
Pebble Beach by the Numbers (Off-The-Tee)
- Average Fairway Width -- 40.6 yards; sixth-widest on the PGA Tour
- Driving Accuracy -- 69.4%; fifth-highest on Tour
- Average Driving Distance -- 272.2 yards; lowest on Tour
- Missed Fairway Penalty -- 0.33; 14th-lowest on Tour
- Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee Difficulty: -0.025; ninth-toughest on Tour
Despite sitting just a few hundred miles up the California coastline, you won't find a more drastically different tee-to-green test to Torrey Pines than Pebble Beach. Coming in nearly 800 yards shorter than the 7,800-yard behemoth players faced last week, Pebble Beach's 6,972-yard routing ranks as the shortest Par 72 we see on the PGA Tour.
This lack of length will allow players much more freedom in their club choices off of the tee; with 7/10 Par 4s here measuring at 420 yards or less, the driver is only a necessity on five to six shots in a given round.
This deemphasis on driving prowess is further emphasized by some of the most forgiving landing areas on the PGA schedule. At over 41 yards wide on average, only Augusta National, Kapalua, and El Cardonal can boast more generous fairways -- keeping in mind that the shortest of those venues (El Cardonal) still measures in at over 7,400 yards.
When you combine the generosity of these fairways, along with the multitude of club-down opportunities available to these players, it's no wonder that the past champions list here in recent years hasn't exactly skewed towards elite drivers of the ball.
In fact, three of the last seven champions here at the AT&T did so whilst losing strokes off the tee around Pebble Beach, and in that time, only Daniel Berger (2021) ranked inside the top 10 for the week in Total Driving.
It's not often that driving rates out as the least predictive of the four Strokes Gained metrics on the PGA Tour, but Pebble Beach has perhaps the best case to devalue any and all off-the-tee metrics in your modeling.
If anything, I'll be placing a small value on accuracy-based stats like Good Drive %, as the everpresent threat of the Pacific Ocean gives Pebble Beach an above-average penalty fraction of five percent, but as long as you're not sniping your tee ball dead into the sea, there isn't a lot that should worry the best players in the world on the tee box.
Pebble Beach by the Numbers (Approach)
- Green in Regulation Rate -- 65.2%; 16th highest on the PGA Tour
- Strokes Gained: Approach Difficulty: -0.040; fifth-toughest on Tour
- Key Proximity Ranges:
- 100-125 yards- (has accounted for 21.8% of historical approach shots)
- 200+ yards (21.7%)
- 125-150 yards (15.8%)
If you're looking to have a good time this weekend (and potentially get your stomach pumped), take a drink every time you hear this little factoid on the CBS Broadcast:
"Pebble Beach features the smallest green complexes on the PGA Tour."
They are true -- and although the greens here aren't the most interesting from a topographical standpoint, the 3,500 sq. foot complexes (on average) are regarded as the greatest architectural defense this course possesses.
Surprisingly, though, these notoriously small targets haven't always translated to lower Green in Regulation rates, as the field average here at the AT&T Pro-Am has exceeded the Tour Average of 65% on four of the last five occasions.
Much of this concerns the approach yardages players can expect to have into many of these holes. Even with the lowest average driving distance on the PGA Tour, over one-third of historic approach shots at Pebble Beach have come from inside of 125 yards, and another 15% have come from 125-150.
The abundance of wedge shots players project to have into these greens, combined with the inflated rate at which they can expect to play from the fairways, means elite wedge players will have ample opportunities to fire at flag sticks with near impunity.
Wedge play is certainly a skill I'll be isolating for in my modeling, as the Top five finishers here at Pebble Beach have gained an average of 1.55 strokes per round on approach (37% of their total strokes), and eight of the last 10 champions here have entered the week inside the top 20 on Tour in at least one of my aforementioned proximity ranges.
It's also worth noting that over 20% of approach shots have historically come from 200 yards and beyond at Pebble Beach.
While this fraction does stand out from a raw numbers standpoint, 21.4% still sits well below the PGA Tour average distribution of approaches coming from beyond 200 yards (27%), and many of the long-irons players project to be hitting into these greens will be coming on Pebble's four reachable par 5s.
As a result, I'll be using Par 5 scoring as an indirect stand-in for long-iron proximities while continuing to focus most of my attention on general iron metrics, as well as the previously specified stats from <150 yards.
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End of the Season Totals: @rotoballer @BettorGolfPod
2017 +54.26 Units
2018 +55.88 Units
2019 +27.743 Units
2020 + 37.015 Units
2021 + 68.846 Units
2022 +67.485 UnitsTotal Winnings: +311.229 Units
Total Outright Wins Since 2017: 36
H2H Totals Inside Thread… https://t.co/pNQrSK1rFE
— Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) December 12, 2022
Pebble Beach by the Numbers (Around the Greens)
- Scrambling Percentage -- 56.6%; 0.9% below Tour Average
- Sand Save Difficulty -- (-0.020); 11th-toughest on Tour
- SG: Around the Green Difficulty: +0.026; eighth easiest on Tour
With winning scores hovering comfortably in the 17 to 19-under range over the last eight to nine seasons, the Pebble Beach Pro-Am isn't typically an event that falls into the category of a scrambling/Bogey Avoidance fest.
Since 2012, the Top 10 finishers here have gained just 1/3 of their strokes around the greens relative to approach play and putting, and this week, I don't see that changing this week, as initial forecasts from the Monterrey Peninsula show four pristine days of unstirred sunshine from Thursday-Sunday.
In fact, over that 96-hour period, there isn't currently a single projection of winds over 10 mph -- a drastic departure from the gale-force conditions that knocked down trees and power lines and eventually put an early end to Pebble Beach's debut as a Signature Series event.
If these forecasts hold, I don't see any reason why the field average in Greens in Regulation won't crest into the mid-70s, making scrambling statistics even less of a factor in the winning profile. I'd rank short game a distant third/fourth in predictiveness compared to the other Strokes Gained categories, and similar to driving, it will be nothing more than a tie-breaker for me in my overall modeling.
Pebble Beach by the Numbers (Putting)
- Average Green Size -- 3,500 square feet
- Agronomy -- Poa Annua
- Stimpmeter: 10.5
- 3-Putt Percentage: 2.8%
- Strokes Gained: Putting Difficulty: -0.017; fourth toughest on Tour
We've spent a great portion of this piece outlining the stark contrasts between these two California landmarks, but one constant that remains from last week's assessment of Torrey Pines is the presence of Poa Annua greens. In fact, Torrey is one of only three courses on the PGA Tour in which it's harder to gain strokes putting compared to Pebble Beach, and the only course with a lower make percentage from five to 15 feet.
While the damper conditions up in Monterey typically make the greens at Pebble Beach a bit slower and more receptive compared to its SoCal counterparts, it doesn't take away from the overall difficulty in navigating this unique agronomy.
Since 2015, Pebble Beach has never ranked easier than the sixth toughest course on Tour to putt inside five feet and features a three-putt percentage right in line with the Tour average despite possessing the smallest green complexes on Tour.
Projecting putting performance is always one of the trickier exploits in our weekly handicap, but oftentimes, past performance on poa annua is among the more reliable indicators of future success on this surface. Each of the last eight winners here had at least a singular recent spike week on these surfaces -- if not a consistent increase in their overall baseline.
- W. Clark +6.7 SG: Putting (2022 Farmers), and +9.8 SG: Putting in two starts at Riviera from 2020-21
- Rose +6.2 SG: Putting (2019 U.S. Open)
- Hoge +4.8 SG: Putting (2021 Pebble Beach Pro-Am)
- Berger: +1.8 and +2.6 SG: Putting in his two prior starts at the AT&T Pro-Am
- N. Taylor: Gained strokes putting in 10 of his previous 13 starts at Pebble/Torrey/Riviera
- Mickelson: Gained strokes putting in six of his previous seven starts at Pebble leading into his 2019 win
- Potter Jr: +6.8 SG: Putting (2013 Pebble Beach Pro-Am)
- Spieth: Gained strokes putting in each of his last two Pebble Beach starts leading into his 2017 win
With as big a factor as putting projects to play in this week's outcome, I intend to be extremely selective when assessing a player's viability on this surface. If he hasn't proven capable of performing on comparable green complexes within the last few seasons, this is not a week I intend to bet on a sudden change of heart.
Key Stats Roundup:
- SG: Approach -- particular emphasis on proximity/strokes gained splits from <150 yards
- Birdie Opportunities Gained
- Birdie or Better Rates <150 yards
- Positive history putting on West Coast Poa Annua surfaces
- Par 5 Scoring
- Off-the-tee stats will be largely deemphasized compared to a normal week. Slight weight given to Driving Accuracy/Good Drive %
The Sunday Shortlist
Before the odds come out on Monday morning, here are two to three names I’ve identified as significant targets upon my initial research.
Justin Thomas
He couldn't quite complete the six-shot Sunday comeback in Palm Springs, but a runner-up performance at the American Express has cemented Justin Thomas as one of the game's brightest in-form entities to start the 2025 campaign.
Over his last four appearances, JT has logged three finishes of third or better and now comes to a venue where he put forth another contending effort in 2024: finishing in a tie for sixth while rating out second in the field from tee-to-green over 36 holes at Pebble Beach.
Last year being his first taste of real success at Pebble comes as a surprise, considering he's long been thought of as one of the best wedge players on the planet.
In fact, over the last 12 months, only Tom Hoge, Scottie Scheffler, Lucas Glover, and Christiaan Bezuidenhout have gained more strokes on approach from inside of 150 yards, and although he grew up and spent many of his formative years in the Southeast, Thomas has been surprisingly adept on California's famed poa annua putting surfaces.
He's recorded three of the best 11 putting weeks of his career at Torrey Pines and Riviera (x2) and comes into this week off of the best per-round putting performance we've seen from Justin since his win at the 2022 PGA Championship.
I've always favored Thomas in tournaments where aggression and birdie-making are top of mind, and with the calm conditions we currently project in Monterrey, he should be able to knock down flag after flag with his favored wedges in hand.
With the injury (Scheffler), course history (McIlroy/Matsuyama), and form (Cantlay) concerns present at the top of the oddsboard this week, I believe this is a great opportunity for Justin to finally cash in on this incredible run of form.
Tom Hoge
What a putt by Tom Hoge to give him a 2 shot lead heading to 18. pic.twitter.com/2O2dhnOauh
— Smokin’ Greens (@smokin_greens) February 6, 2022
If you run any sort of statistical modeling this week, it's going to be awfully difficult to avoid Tom Hoge as one of the top values in the class.
Now, whether or not you trust Hoge to defeat this star-studded cast of PGA characters is a different story entirely, but it should be noted that he came sixth in this very event 12 months ago and out-dueled the likes of Jordan Spieth and Patrick Cantlay en route to his 2022 title on the Monterey Peninsula.
By the numbers, it's difficult to find a player more suited to Pebble Beach Golf Links: as Hoge ranks as not only the best wedge player on the PGA Tour (both by Proximity and Strokes Gained per Shot), he also rates out as a top-5 Poa Annua putter over his last 50 rounds.
He hasn't lost strokes on West Coast poa annua surfaces since the 2022 Genesis Invitational (seven consecutive starts), and has opened the 2025 campaign by gaining over a stoke per round on Approach through 10 recorded rounds.
Despite the laundry list of headline names present at the top of this odds board, I see Pebble Beach as one of the few venues in the Signature Series that's capable of allowing an off-the-wall winner. Given its forgiving, wedge-intensive layout and a rather benign forecast, players won't face nearly the same stress from tee to green as we saw at Torrey Pines last week.
Easier scoring conditions typically open the door for a wider array of winners, and in fact, four of the last seven champions here at Pebble Beach have closed at greater than 50-1 on the odds board. If that trend is destined to repeat itself this week, Tom Hoge (currently 80-1 on DraftKings) would sit at the top of my list of players most likely to don that glass slipper.
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