July 29, 2020

Spencer Aguiar digs into the Vegas betting lines to find some of his best under-the-radar plays for the Barracuda Championship

Here at RotoBaller, we are always searching for ways to give our readers the best fantasy sports content possible. With that goal in mind, we are very proud to announce the arrival of our new column that will cover head-to-head plays for each PGA Tour stop. If you are looking for a more in-depth breakdown, be sure to also check out my weekly PGA DFS: Vegas Report. There you will find my complete betting card, as well as my head-to-head play of the week.

My premium head-to-head selections have gone an impressive (71-37-7), netting over 41 units of profit and a success rate of nearly 66%. On top of that, my outright wagers have yielded 19 winners since the inception of the article - including a 200/1 outright victor at the Valero Texas Open last season and four so far in 2020, making it a must-read for gambling enthusiasts. If you would like to receive a discount on your order, be sure to use my checkout code TEEOFF.

In this feature, I will present a handful of head-to-head wagers that just missed out on being my best bet of the week for my Vegas Report article. If you have any questions, feel free to contact me on Twitter @Teeoffsports. Be sure to read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS and betting articles to help you win big!

Special Bonus - Spencer's Free Cheat Sheet

Check out my brand new PGA Weekly Cheatsheet.

There you will find a plethora of information, including course history, current form and statistical data. If you would like to change any of the weights entered onto the spreadsheet, make a copy of your own under the file tab and get started on your research today!

Barracuda Championship

#1 - Sam Burns - 33/1

We have a first-time track for the Barracuda Championship, which adds to the dynamic of the event using Stableford scoring. For those that don't know how Stableford works, golfers will receive a modified point total based on their production. An albatross earns you eight points, eagle five, birdie two, par zero, bogey negative-one and double bogey or worse negative-three. Unlike most weeks where you are trying to post the lowest score possible, this tournament will be won by the player who yields the highest sum.

With the venue playing almost 5,900-feet above elevation, the 7,500 yards placed in front of the players will feel more like 6,800 yards when all is said and done. That means that distance off the tee may become even more enhanced with medium width fairways, and while there are trees that can come into play, I'd prefer length and ball-striking above all other non-scoring statistics.

All four par-fives at Tahoe Mountain Club are reachable in two shots, not to mention that at least two par-fours can be attacked off the tee. I believe the added distance we discussed will give players a better chance to find scoring opportunities, but it is not as if mistakes won't be punished at the track with water in play on six of the holes.

The first price that caught my eye this week was Sam Burns, who enters the event priced at his closing number during last week's 3M Open. It is dangerous to look at wagers in that fashion because one overpriced option doesn't automatically yield value when given the same number in a weaker field, but it does become curious when Burns pops up as the top-ranked player in my model.

Inside the top-10 compared to the field in strokes gained off the tee, eagles gained, par-five birdie or better percentage and driving distance, Burns enters the week having posted four consecutive top-32 results - giving him the second-best average finish result for any golfer that has played at least three events since the Puerto Rico Open.

There are some concerns that his irons and ball-striking won't be up to par at a venue that will require consistent scoring and fewer mistakes, but it is difficult to ignore his par-five scoring ability and quality putting over the field.

0.24 Units to Win 8.00

#2 - Jhonattan Vegas - 50/1

It was a disappointing week for all of us that backed Jhonattan Vegas during the 3M Open. The 35-year-old stumbled with a myriad of water balls during his failed two-day performance, and it didn't help matters that he lost nearly four strokes with his putter. However, despite what felt like an insufferable display from the three-time PGA Tour winner, there were many positives to take out of his short stay in Minnesota.

Not only did Vegas miss the cut on the number after all that went wrong, but he also gained 4.9 when we combine his off the tee and approach numbers. That combination of success could be a deadly one at Tahoe Mountain Club, and it becomes even further enhanced when we dive deeper into his scoring acumen.

Vegas is known to make mistakes, ranking 122nd compared to the field in bogey avoidance over his past 50 rounds, but the trouble typically stops there when we look at his second-place standing of doubles or worse avoided. The Barracuda Championship is an event that rewards birdies over bogeys, and if the Venezuelan can keep the big numbers off his card, his ball-striking prowess could shine through for an outright victory. I am fine playing this wager down to 35/1, although I don't think we see this move as drastically as that.

0.20 Units to Win 10.00

#3 - Will Gordon - 50/1

Will Gordon is a tough nut to crack because of the limited data we have on him so far during his career. He continues to be someone that grades out better for me than he should because of the handful of robust results he has thrown into the mix, but there is a downside that was displayed at the 3M Open of what happens when things go wrong.

Gordon ranks first in my model when it comes to birdie or better percentage, and he enters the week inside the top-10 in opportunities gained over his past 50 rounds. His 97th place ranking in bogey avoidance is concerning, but we do see him jump up to 39th compared to the field in escaping double bogey or worse.

When we take into account all the factors involved, 50/1 is a fair price for the 23-year-old as he figures out how to become more consistent on tour. The Stableford scoring does make this more appealing than it typically would because of the way Gordon can fire up birdies in bunches, but there is volatility in play with this selection. I have him properly priced at 45/1, giving us a slight long-term edge.

0.16 Units to Win 8.00

#4 - Adam Schenk - 60/1

Make it three straight top-41 finishes for Adam Schenk after the American was able to rally on Sunday at the 3M Open with a final round 67. I feel as if Schenk has transformed himself recently into a golfer that has learned how to make a paycheck in these stronger field tournaments, and the reduction in class makes him an intriguing upside option to consider at the Barracuda Championship.

Schenk does most of his damage off the tee and with his ball-striking, and if his birdie percentage can increase for the week, his usual steady play should allow him to skyrocket up the leaderboard. Schenk also ranks inside the top-30 compared to the field in eagles gained and is someone who is quietly asserting his name as a weekly threat.

0.13 Units to Win 8.00

#5 - Cameron Davis - 60/1

Arguably my favorite value play on the board, Cameron Davis' big-hitting style mixed with his ability to score is an ideal combination for a tournament that is played under different rules.

Davis has provided four top-12 finishes in his previous 12 worldwide starts, and the Aussie appears like he is once again ready to continue his early-season onslaught that produced seven straight made cuts between third and 38th place.

The 213th-ranked player in the world grades out second over his last 24 rounds in eagles gained and is ranked inside the top-15 in par-five scoring, ball striking and driving distance.

0.16 Units to Win 10.00

#6 - Aaron Wise - 80/1

I'm not sure I can think of a style of golf that would suit Aaron Wise better than Stableford. Wise is an explosive young golfer that makes birdies in bunches, yet his propensity for posting a lofty number on a hole has taken him out of contests in the past. Sure, that will also hurt him at an event like we have this weekend, but he can take a negative-three here and there when two birdies will negate the damage.

Wise has only made five of 16 cuts on the year, but he is actually near even on strokes gained during that duration of time. Consider the American a strong bounce-back candidate that might make noise if he can keep his mistakes limited.

0.10 Units to Win 8.00

#7 - Ryan Brehm - 250/1

If we exclude Ryan Brehm's previous two failed ventures at the 3M Open and Rocket Mortgage, the American had made eight of his previous nine cuts on tour.

The 34-year-old finds the majority of his issues around the green and with his putter, and the hope is that his driving ability will shine through at a venue that could reward his birdie-making skills. This number continues to be overinflated and is worth a shot in this weakened field.

0.03 Units to Win 7.50

***Add

Seamus Power - 150/1

Higher price this week than last. Too much value to ignore in this field.

0.04 Units to Win 6.00

Did you know RotoBaller has a Premium DFS PGA subscription?

Like what you read today? You can show your support for Spencer by using promo code TEEOFF when purchasing a PGA Premium Pass. You get 10% off and full access to all of our Premium PGA articles, DFS tools, and Lineup Optimizer!

2020 Premium Head-to-Head Record (11-10-2)

-0.12 Units Year-To-Date From Premium H2H Bets

Year-To-Date Free Head-To-Head Results

15-17-0 (+1.13 Units)

2020 Bets That Have Finished Inside The Top-10

Yearly Record:

2017 Golf Betting:
Head to Head Bets (10-2-2) +8.175 Units
Outright Winners (5)
Dustin Johnson Genesis Open (10/1)
Sergio Garcia Masters (50/1)
Brooks Koepka U.S. Open (45/1)
Justin Thomas PGA Championship (35/1)
Dustin Johnson Northern Trust (14/1)

2018 Golf Betting:
Head to Head Bets (46-24-2) +24.49 Units
Outright Winners (5)
Phil Mickelson WGC-Mexico (22/1)
Bubba Watson WGC- Match Play (45/1)
Brooks Koepka U.S. Open In-Play Wager (14/1)
Dustin Johnson RBC Canadian Open (7/1)
Justin Thomas WGC-Bridgestone (30/1)

2019 Golf Betting:
Head to Head Bets (16-9-2) +8.33 Units
Outright Winners (5)
Matt Kuchar Mayakoba Golf Classic (66/1)
Corey Conners Valero Texas Open (200/1)
Rory McIlroy RBC Canadian Open  (10/1)
Brooks Koepka WGC- St. Jude Classic (12/1)
Rory McIlroy Tour Championship (8/1)

Career Record (Excluding 2020 Season Results)

Head to Head Bets (72-35-6) +40.995 Units
Outright Winners (15)
Top 5s (Didn't Track in 2017)
2018 - 16
2019 - 26
Top 10s (Didn't Track in 2017)
2018 - 31
2019 - 41

If you read my articles @RotoBaller or listen to @TheTurnGolfPod I’ve been telling y’all it was #WinningSeason when golf came back! Shoutout to the entire @RotoBallerPGA squad and all you guys that support my work for all the ❤️ pic.twitter.com/07a4ynvbSU

— Joe Nicely (@JoeNicely) June 28, 2020

Congrats @tenndolly2 ???

Thanks for being a @RotoBaller PGA DFS Premium subscriber & checking out all the amazing golf content that @JoeNicely produces every week! https://t.co/tHKZVsPbbt

— RotoBaller PGA (@RotoBallerPGA) August 10, 2020

LIKE ROTOBALLER?

CLICK HERE, ENTER ROTOBALLER.COM, THEN CHECK THE BOX

Golf DFS News and Player Outlooks

LIKE ROTOBALLER?

CLICK HERE, ENTER ROTOBALLER.COM, THEN CHECK THE BOX

More PGA Analysis and DFS Lineup Picks