X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Join the Best Live Fantasy Chat Community!

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


LINEUP RESOURCES

Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Player Comparisons
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Patrick Corbin to Nationals - Fantasy Impact

By Not That Bob James from Phoenix, AZ, USA (Dbacks P Patrick Corbin Uploaded by Muboshgu) [CC BY 2.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0)], via Wikimedia Commons

Starting pitcher Patrick Corbin was one of the top free agents on the market this winter, with his market dwindled down to the New York Yankees, Philadelphia Phillies, and Washington Nationals. On Tuesday, the Nationals got over the line with Corbin, inking a six-year/$140 million deal with the 29-year-old lefty. This was a mild shock in baseball circles, as the Phillies and Yankees were thought to be favorites for Corbin, but this gives Washington a strong rotation headlined by Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg, and Corbin.

Corbin topped 200 innings for the first time since 2013 this season, finishing 11-7 with a 3.15 ERA and 246 strikeouts in 200 innings pitched. Corbin has also seen his walk rate drop in each of the last three seasons and his ERA was supported by a 2.47 FIP. Finishing fifth in the NL Cy Young race, Corbin was due for a big payday and the Nationals were the team to pay him.

Moving across country, what impact will Patrick Corbin have on the Washington Nationals and what does it mean for fantasy owners in 2019?

Featured Promo: Get your 2023 MLB Premium Pass for 50% off. Exclusive access to our preseason Draft Kit, #1 accuracy rankings, #1 ATC projections, Team Sync platform, Live Draft Assistant, 15 in-season lineup tools, customized rankings and much more! Sign Up Now!

 

Do The Nationals Have The Best Rotation In Baseball?

In a simple manner, the left-handed Corbin replaces Gio Gonzalez in the Nationals rotation, both as the number two pitcher and the lefty that breaks up Scherzer and Strasburg. Gonzalez had a down season in 2018 for the Nationals before being traded to the Brewers, but averaged a 13-9 record with a 3.49 ERA in 1107 2/3 innings with the Nationals, striking out 1089 batters and walking 415. While Corbin is coming off of a strong season, he has only topped 13 wins twice and has struck out 8.5 batters per nine in his 945 2/3 career innings. Furthermore, he is just two seasons removed from finishing 5-13 with a 5.15 ERA and 1.56 WHIP in 155 2/3 innings, striking out 131 and walking 66. As compared to Gonzalez's 116 ERA+ with the Nationals, Corbin has a 109 ERA+ in his career. This is not to compare Corbin and Gonzalez, but rather to illustrate the gap that Corbin will need to fill.

Corbin underwent Tommy John surgery in 2014 and was not the same pitcher from 2015-2017 as he was in 2013, where he was an All-Star at 23, finishing 14-8 with a 3.41 ERA in a career-high 208 1/3 innings. Post-Tommy John, Corbin threw 430 1/3 innings over three seasons, posting a 4.35 ERA, allowing 10 hits per nine and a 1.44 WHIP. His strikeout rates were up (8.1 per nine in that time span from 7.7 in 2013) and his innings pitched totals went from 85 in 2015 to 189 2/3 in 2017. He had his breakout season in 2018, though, and that season needs to be examined further.

There were a lot of good things about Corbin's 2018 season, but it all started with a 24.8% K-BB% that was the best of his career. This came from him throwing fewer fastballs (48.6%) and introducing a curveball that he threw 9% of the time. His curveball and fastball were each plus pitches, but his slider that he threw 41.3% of the time ranked as the best slider in baseball. There was a lot of work that went into his slider over the last three seasons and, it appears, that the spike in value of his slider also made his fastball more valuable as well, even though its velocity has dropped to just 90.8. While the boost in strikeouts and a better pitch selection led to his breakout season (and a 15.6% swinging strike rate that only trailed his new teammate Scherzer), batted ball statistics do not paint as pretty of a picture. After posting a strong 31.6% hard hit ball rate and career-best 18.5% soft hit ball rate in 2017, Corbin allowed a 41.7% hard hit ball rate and 16.4% soft hit ball rate in 2018. While his soft hit ball rate was still better than his career rate of 15.9%, his hard hit ball rate was the worst of his career. He also allowed a career-high 24.3% line drive rate and his ground ball rate (48.5%) was under 50% for the first time since 2015. For a pitcher that struck out 30.8% of batters, a 48.5% GB rate is still elite, as Aaron Nola was the only pitcher in baseball that struck out at least 25% of batters and had a better GB rate.

The humidor being added in Arizona could have also boosted his 2018 season, as Arizona went from an extreme hitter's park (3rd in runs allowed in 2017) to a middle of the road park last season (11th). Furthermore, home runs went from fourth in 2017 to 19th in 2018, which could have been a big reason that Corbin's HR/9 dipped from 1.23 to 0.68 year over year. Corbin did allow fewer fly balls last season (29.6% to 27.2%), but his 11.1% HR/FB was his lowest since 2013 and was a drop from his 13.3% career rate. The move to Nationals Ballpark does not help; Washington was 3rd in runs allowed and 5th in home runs allowed in 2018. This was after finishing 10th and 13th in 2017, showing that this is becoming more of a hitter's ballpark. It will be important for Corbin to keep his groundball rate up and continue his positive trends in regards to flyballs as well.

Looking at Corbin, his 2018 season appears to be a bit of an outlier; this does not mean that he will fall back to Earth completely in 2019. While the move to Nationals Ballpark is not great for Corbin, his combination of ground balls and strikeouts is very enticing. Although Corbin has had walk issues in his career, this rate has dropped in each of the last four seasons and seems to be less of a problem. It is wise to look at Corbin as a low-end SP2 in 2019, with his strikeout upside covering for any issues.




LINEUP RESOURCES

Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Player Comparisons
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

ROTOBALLER PLAYER NEWS

Juan Soto7 mins ago

Not Focused On Contract Situation
Paolo Banchero11 mins ago

Shines Against Washington
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander20 mins ago

Piles Up 39 Points Friday
Jake Cronenworth26 mins ago

Padres Agree To Extension
Anthony Davis27 mins ago

Battles Through Injury For A Big Double-Double
Nolan Jones34 mins ago

Homers Twice For Albuquerque
Jonathan Toews35 mins ago

Returns To Action Saturday
Tyler Toffoli45 mins ago

Nets Two Goals Against Vancouver
Clayton Keller54 mins ago

Keeps Point Streak Going Friday
Jason Robertson1 hour ago

Sets New Stars Scoring Record
Adam Fox1 hour ago

Continues Hot Spell With A Goal
Casey Mittelstadt1 hour ago

Hands Out Two Assists
Steven Kwan3 hours ago

Plates Five In Win Over Seattle
Tee Higgins10 hours ago

Not Concerned About Contract Situation
Jeff Skinner10 hours ago

Scores Game-Winning Goal In Overtime
Devon Levi11 hours ago

Earns Victory In NHL Debut
A.J. Puk13 hours ago

Picks Up Save For Marlins Friday
Rhys Hoskins13 hours ago

Undergoes Successful Knee Surgery
Nick Solak13 hours ago

Mariners Acquire Nick Solak From Reds
Justin Verlander13 hours ago

Does Some Light Throwing
Luis Urías13 hours ago

Luis Urias Reportedly Heading To Injured List
Joey Wiemer13 hours ago

Reportedly Will Be Called Up
Anthony Rendon14 hours ago

Being Investigated By MLB
Willson Contreras14 hours ago

Receives Good News On Friday
Seattle Seahawks15 hours ago

Ryan Neal Becomes Free Agent
Pharaoh Brown15 hours ago

Joins Colts
Darrynton Evans15 hours ago

To Meet With Colts
Laquon Treadwell15 hours ago

Working Out For Cowboys
Zach Collins15 hours ago

Out Against Golden State
De'Andre Hunter16 hours ago

Out With A Knee Injury On Friday
Oscar Gonzalez16 hours ago

Starting On Friday
Obi Toppin16 hours ago

Will Start Against The Cavs
Jarrett Allen16 hours ago

Downgraded To Out On Friday
Nelson Cruz16 hours ago

Batting Cleanup On Friday
Mike Moustakas16 hours ago

Remains Out Again
Michael Brantley16 hours ago

Takes Batting Practice
Andrew Vaughn16 hours ago

Sitting On Friday
Gavin Sheets18 hours ago

Oscar Colas Starting On Friday
Paul Sewald18 hours ago

Picks Up Win On Opening Day
Garrett Whitlock18 hours ago

Making Rehab Start Friday
Josh Rojas19 hours ago

Hitting Leadoff Against Dodgers
Portland Trail Blazers19 hours ago

LaMarcus Aldridge Officially Retires From The NBA
Jamal Murray19 hours ago

Considered Questionable Against Phoenix
Nikola Jokic19 hours ago

Could Miss His Second Consecutive Game
Kenyon Martin19 hours ago

Jr. Uncertain To Play Against Detroit
Tobias Harris19 hours ago

Could Miss Friday's Game Against Toronto
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander19 hours ago

Upgraded To Questionable On Friday
Al Horford19 hours ago

Uncertain To Suit Up On Friday
Jaylen Brown19 hours ago

Tagged As Questionable With Lower-Back Pain
Jayson Tatum20 hours ago

Listed As Questionable Against Utah
Kelly Olynyk20 hours ago

Is Available Against Boston On Friday
De'Andre Hunter20 hours ago

Downgraded To Out On Friday
Trayveon Williams22 hours ago

Bengals Have High Hopes For Trayveon Williams
Joe Burrow22 hours ago

Bengals Begin Extension Discussions With Joe Burrow
Mac Jones22 hours ago

Bill Belichick Still Non-Committal On Mac Jones
Sammy Blais24 hours ago

Extends Point Streak To Six Games
Cam Talbot24 hours ago

Makes A Winning Return
Matthew Beniers24 hours ago

Logs Two Points Against Anaheim
Stuart Skinner24 hours ago

Grabs A 43-Save Shutout
Tristan Jarry1 day ago

Records His Second Shutout
Matthew Tkachuk1 day ago

Rolls To Four Points Versus Montreal
T.J. Oshie1 day ago

Exits With An Upper-Body Injury
Mikey Anderson1 day ago

Injured On First Shift Thursday
CJ McCollum1 day ago

Drops 23 Points In Easy Win Over Denver
Jamal Murray1 day ago

Salvages Solid Performance In Loss
Brandon Ingram1 day ago

Secures A Triple-Double Against Denver
Linus Ullmark1 day ago

Allows One Goal In Overtime Victory
David Pastrnak1 day ago

Scores Game-Winning Goal
Baltimore Ravens2 days ago

Ravens Have Been Active In Receiver Market
Baker Mayfield2 days ago

Kyle Trask To Compete In Training Camp
Courtland Sutton2 days ago

Broncos Could Still Trade Jerry Jeudy, Courtland Sutton
DeAndre Hopkins2 days ago

To Stay With Cardinals?
Odell Beckham Jr.2 days ago

Jets The Most Likely Landing Spot For Odell Beckham Jr.
Carolina Panthers2 days ago

Panthers Not Settled On One QB For No. 1 Pick
Lamar Jackson2 days ago

Not Seeking Fully Guaranteed Deal
Nathan Peterman2 days ago

Re-Signs With Bears
Ryan Lindgren2 days ago

A Game-Time Decision Against New Jersey
Seth Jones2 days ago

Expects To Play Thursday
David Savard2 days ago

A Game-Time Call Thursday
Dre Miller2 days ago

Kendre Miller Ahead Of Schedule
Buffalo Bills2 days ago

Bills Re-Sign Jordan Phillips
Las Vegas Raiders2 days ago

Alex Bars Returns To Raiders On One-Year Deal
Dallas Cowboys2 days ago

Johnathan Hankins Re-Signs With Cowboys
NFL2 days ago

Wanya Morris Getting Close To 100%
Brendon Todd3 days ago

Has Success At TPC San Antonio
Ben Martin3 days ago

Has Value At TPC San Antonio
Nick Taylor3 days ago

A Boom-Or-Bust Option At Valero
Taylor Pendrith3 days ago

A Sleeper Option At TPC San Antonio
Chris Kirk3 days ago

A Good Option At The Valero Texas Open
Matt Kuchar3 days ago

Loves Playing TPC San Antonio
Will Gordon3 days ago

Offers A Wild-Card Option At Valero
Cam Davis3 days ago

Can Keep His Current Form At TPC San Antonio
Mark Hubbard4 days ago

A Low-Risk Value Option At Valero
Tyler Duncan4 days ago

Start Tyler Duncan At TPC San Antonio
Emiliano Grillo4 days ago

Not Recommended At Valero
Patrick Rodgers4 days ago

Don't Give Patrick Rodgers A Shot At Valero
Adam Schenk4 days ago

Wants To Keep Momentum Rolling At Valero
Ryan Moore4 days ago

Cannot Get Past The Cut Lately
Stephan Jaeger4 days ago

Could Warm Things Up At Valero
Si Woo Kim4 days ago

A Possible Contender At Valero
Taylor Montgomery4 days ago

Attempting To Find Weekend Consistency
Corey Conners4 days ago

Trying To Recreate A Little Magic
Thomas Detry4 days ago

Continues To Impress In Rookie Season
Aaron Rai4 days ago

Brings Positive Momentum To Valero Texas Open
Akshay Bhatia4 days ago

Looks To Stay Hot In Texas
Todd Gilliland5 days ago

Impressive At COTA
Ty Gibbs5 days ago

Finds His Footing At COTA
Chris Buescher5 days ago

Continues To Shine On Road Courses
NASCAR5 days ago

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. Finishes Seventh
Austin Cindric5 days ago

Has A Solid Day
Marlon Vera5 days ago

Has Four-Fight Winning Streak Snapped
Cory Sandhagen5 days ago

Dominates Striking Department
Yana Santos5 days ago

Dominated In Decision Loss
Holly Holm5 days ago

Dominates In Co-Main Event
Austin Lingo5 days ago

Suffers Submission Loss
Nate Landwehr5 days ago

Shines With Second-Round Submission Win
Andrea Lee5 days ago

Suffers Defeat In Close Matchup Saturday
Maycee Barber5 days ago

Takes Close Matchup On Saturday
Chidi Njokuani5 days ago

Takes Close Loss In Split-Decision Showing
Albert Duraev5 days ago

Holds Off Opponent In Tight Split Decision
William Byron5 days ago

Rounds Out Top Five At COTA
Ross Chastain5 days ago

Caught Up To Fourth At COTA On Sunday
Alex Bowman5 days ago

Brings Home Third Place Finish At COTA
Kyle Busch5 days ago

Scrambles Up To Second At Austin
Tyler Reddick5 days ago

Dominates And Wins At COTA
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF