Finding Over/Undervalued Third Basemen Using Expected Draft Values

Nick Mariano uses RotoBaller's Expected Draft Values, which analyzes data from the last 5 fantasy baseball seasons, to identify overvalued and undervalued third basemen (3B) for fantasy baseball drafts in 2021.

Last year we introduced our Expected Draft Values and explained how they would help us identify both over and undervalued players of all types. Power, speed, power+speed, batting average+power, and so on, with pitchers as well.

Today, we'll look at four third basemen and our site projections for them. Stay tuned over the next couple of weeks as we bring you a deeper look at undervalued and overvalued players from each position using Expected Draft Values.

Generally, what we'll do in this series is identify players who will return positive or negative value, based on their NFBC Draft Champions ADP from the beginning of February through March, their Expected Draft Value (i.e. the average stat line typically produced at that ADP), and the player's projection.

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How Expected Draft Values Help You Win Your League

It may be clear by this point already, but if you know the expected break-even stat-line of every draft slot, you can identify which of your draft picks are projected to return positive or negative value. Below, we look at four players at the hot corner that are either over or undervalued based on their recent NFBC Online ADP, our RotoBaller projections, and Expected Draft Values.

Without further ado, here are some players that stand out at their current cost in 2020 drafts.

Rafael Devers - 3B, BOS

NFBC DC ADP: 45
Expected Return for a Power+Average Hitter Drafted 45th: .297 BA, 27 HR, 88 runs, 97 RBI, 5 SB
2021 RotoBaller Projection: .285-33-100-108-6

Analysis: Devers is only 24 years young entering his fifth MLB season in one of the best hitter’s parks in the game. He broke out in 2019 with a wild .311-32-129-115-8 line before floundering in the pandemic-shortened 2020. While his power output held steady (11 HR in 57 games), his average dropped back to .263 and he attempted zero steals after 16 attempts in ‘19.

Last season was weird on many levels and I’m willing to write off clear anomalies, such as Devers suddenly not running at all. His 75.6% Z-Contact rate sticks out compared to the 82.5%, 82.7%, and 82.6% from his first three years. And he still enjoyed healthy hard-hit and barrel rates so I’m happy to invest in the young Boston third-bagger.

I will add that if he struggles against fastballs early then I’ll raise a red flag. After posting a .306 BA (.301 xBA) and .544 SLG (.550 xSLG) against heaters in 2019, those fell to a .233 BA (.217 xBA). But I'll feel better if he truly starts letting the ball find all parts of the field after his Oppo% fell to a career-low 21.2% in 2020:

Rafael Devers on IG live: “I’m working on my swing and going opposite field again, I was trying to pull the ball too much. I’m going the other way now.”

— Boston Strong (@BostonStrong_34) March 9, 2021

Verdict: Target, Devers is undervalued at his current draft slot

Ke'Bryan Hayes - 3B, PIT

NFBC DC ADP: 139
Expected Return for a Power+Speed Hitter Drafted 139th: .264-24-72-70-12
2021 RotoBaller Projection: .273-20-77-69-9

Analysis: Even with an aggressive power projection, Hayes’ expected output falls short of the EDV. I think we all know he outkicked his skill level last September, racking up a .376/.442/.682 slash in 95 PAs thanks to a .450 BABIP and 25% HR/FB rate. His usual BABIPs held between .310-345 with a HR/FB rate within 5-10%. I’m all for growth, especially in the power department as he grows into the 6’1” frame, but he’s still going too early.

While you aren’t losing on the R+RBI front against the EDV, it’s worth noting that Pittsburgh’s barren order doesn’t offer the counting-stat ceiling even if he does perform. Don’t fall prey to the 2020 stats that the draft room will display and let Hayes develop in the Majors beyond the ~100-PA sample that he crushed.

Verdict: Pass, Hayes is overvalued at his current draft slot

Alec Bohm - 3B, PHI

NFBC DC ADP: 104
Expected Return for a Power+Average Drafted 104th: .295-23-73-79-5
2021 RotoBaller Projection: .284-20-83-86-3

Analysis: I swear I’m not a rookie-hater, but Bohm and Hayes each had such electric debuts that their price tag is simply too high. Bohm has a sturdy 6’5” frame with a penchant for contact, but you can see his projection falls short in the power and average sectors. If he were to sacrifice some contact for power then maybe we’d see a rate similar to his 2019 Double-A stat line, when he crushed 14 taters in just 63 games (270 PA) with a .269 average.

That said, I don’t want to “fix” Bohm and I believe he can be a stud even with contact as the priority. His .410 BABIP from last year’s 180 MLB PAs may look modest compared to Hayes’ .450 clip but obviously, that’s coming down. Putting a full season around the .330 mark gives him an average range closer to .280 and if he does this, you will need far more power to compensate and justify the pick.

Verdict: Pass, Bohm is overvalued at his current draft slot

Eugenio Suarez - 3B, CIN

NFBC DC ADP: 84
Expected Return for a Power+Average Hitter Drafted 84th: .263-31-85-87-3
2021 RotoBaller Projection: .264-36-82-95-3

Analysis: Suárez had offseason shoulder surgery in January 2020 and said he was 100% by June. The .268 ISO and 15 home runs in 57 games backed that up, but fantasy owners got burned by a .202 average. Stare long and hard at the .214 BABIP and realize that’s nearly 100 points lower than his previous career-worst mark, which was .304 back in 2016. A career .310 BABIP points to his usual average in the .260-.280 range but speed bumps in 60-game seasons can happen!

I don't love the whole "best shape of his life" tweets but there's little doubting Eugenio is in better form this year. Charlie Goldsmith touched on that in a spring training recap for Cincinnati.com: "After losing 15 pounds over the offseason, Suárez is faster than he has been in recent years, and he showed that speed by extending that hit into a sliding double."

A healthy offseason and the friendly Great American Ballpark in his sails means you should be very interested at this price point. He’s underrated coming off a down year but had 600-plus plate appearances in his four previous seasons and the power output remains healthy. He hit 49 taters in 2019! At just 29 years old, Suárez could blast through the 40-homer wall yet again and offer many happy returns.

Verdict: Target, Suarez is undervalued at his current draft slot

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