5 Undervalued, Overvalued Outfield Picks for Fantasy Baseball Points Leagues (2026)

March 17, 2026

Joey's outfield fantasy baseball draft sleepers, busts, values for points leagues in 2026. His undervalued, overvalued outfield picks for fantasy baseball drafts.

There are always players who go too soon or too late in drafts. These players could then turn into big busts or massive value picks for your team. Identifying which players to avoid and which players to target throughout fantasy drafts is imperative, especially in points leagues.

In this article, we will look at five of the most overvalued and undervalued outfielders currently in points leagues. Some of these outfielders have bust written all over them, while others are value picks in the later rounds. This article will highlight and determine whether these five outfielders are overvalued or undervalued using updated Yahoo! ADP.

So, let's dive into the outfield landscape heading into fantasy baseball drafts. 

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Pete Crow-Armstrong, Chicago Cubs

ADP: 37.3

Chicago Cubs center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong is coming off a breakout campaign in 2025. He hit .247 with 31 home runs, 37 doubles, 95 RBI, and 35 stolen bases across 157 games for the Cubs. Those are no doubt elite numbers across the board. But Crow-Armstrong is probably a better roto player than a points-league player, given his high stolen-base potential.

There are some major concerns with the 23-year-old heading into the 2026 season. His expected batting average (.242), average exit velocity (89.5 mph), hard-hit rate (41.6%), squared-up rate (22.1%), chase rate (41.7%), whiff rate (28.9%), and strikeout rate (24%) all ranked in the bottom half of the league in 2025. So, some major regression could be coming Crow-Armstrong's way this year.

Seven players went 30/30 in 2025...

Juan Soto, Julio Rodriguez, Francisco Lindor, Jazz Chisholm, Corbin Carroll, Pete Crow-Armstrong, José Ramírez

Out of this group, I'd say Soto and PCA don't repeat, the other five could.

I'd add Bobby Witt Jr and Elly De La Cruz to the mix…

— Eric Cross (@EricCrossMLB) February 10, 2026

His second-half struggles should also raise some red flags. Crow-Armstrong hit just .185 with four home runs, 17 RBI, and six stolen bases across his final 50 games. Taking a player inside the top-40 who has major plate discipline issues and is coming off a brutal second half is extremely risky. That's why the Cubs outfielder is overvalued at his 37.3 ADP in Yahoo! leagues.

There are far more negatives than positives for Crow-Armstrong in 2026.

Verdict: Overvalued

Steven Kwan, Cleveland Guardians 

ADP: 122.3

In points leagues, home runs reign supreme. The best players in points leagues are usually the players who are going to hit a ton of home runs. That makes players like Steven Kwan less appealing fantasy options. The Cleveland Guardians outfielder won't hit many home runs, won't drive in many runs, and isn't necessarily a lock to steal 20+ bases.

Last season, Kwan hit .272 with 11 home runs, 56 RBI, 81 runs scored, and 21 stolen bases across 156 games. His hard-hit rate (19.3%), barrel rate (1.9%), and bat speed (63.7 mph) all ranked in the bottom 5% of the league, and his sprint speed (27.3 ft/sec) only placed him in the 45th percentile. With only 25 home runs and 100 RBI combined over the past two years, there are far better players to select at this point in fantasy drafts.

As a result, Kwan is overvalued currently in Yahoo! leagues at his 122.3 ADP. He does a nice job of getting on base, but he fails to deliver in the high-point areas, such as home runs, doubles, triples, and RBI. That's enough reason to avoid him in the 10th or 11th round of most points leagues. There are players in these rounds that will simply give fantasy managers more in those big categories.

It's best to avoid Kwan in these types of formats and take a chance on other outfielders going a bit later. The Guardians outfielder has hit under .275 at the plate in two of the past three seasons as well.

Verdict: Overvalued 

Taylor Ward, Baltimore Orioles 

ADP: 129.2

Taylor Ward always seems to be undervalued in fantasy baseball points leagues. He's a player who has put up consistent all-around fantasy numbers in each of the past few seasons and is always talked about as a value pick in this type of format. Still, Ward finds himself going around pick 129 in Yahoo! leagues despite coming off a career year at the plate.

Ward slashed .228/.317/.475 with 36 home runs, 31 doubles, 103 RBI, and four stolen bases across 157 games for the Los Angeles Angels last year. Those 36 home runs, 31 doubles, and 103 RBI were all personal bests for him. Now, he joins a much better offense after the Baltimore Orioles acquired him in a trade this past offseason. That makes him such a strong pick in fantasy drafts.

With a 13.7% barrel rate, a 28.9% squared-up rate, and a .450 expected slugging, Ward has the power potential to launch another 30 home runs in 2026. Oriole Park at Camden Yards has been one of the better ballparks for home run hitters over the past few years, and the 32-year-old slugger has hit at least 25 home runs in two consecutive seasons.

Taylor Ward — remember him, the other 30 HR, 100 RBI guy the Orioles got this offseason? — ropes a single off prospect Luis De Leon.

Ward’s swing decisions have been great thus far in camp, and he’s been lifting the ball well. pic.twitter.com/8HtO6CJ2pd

— Jacob Calvin Meyer (@jcalvinmeyer) February 18, 2026

Don't overlook Ward in drafts following two strong back-to-back hitting campaigns. He has the potential to make it a third straight while hitting in the heart of an Orioles lineup that features Gunnar Henderson, Pete Alonso, and Adley Rutschman.

Verdict: Undervalued 

Ian Happ, Chicago Cubs

ADP: 140.1

Chicago Cubs outfielder Ian Happ has been one of the most consistent fantasy options at the position in each of the past three seasons. Yet, the veteran is still going outside the top 130 in almost all Yahoo! leagues. While Happ won't necessarily put up the elite numbers in any areas, he does post above-average numbers in several different high-point categories.

In 2023, Happ hit .248 with 21 home runs, 86 runs scored, 84 RBI, and 14 stolen bases across 158 games. In 2024, he batted .243 with 25 home runs, 89 runs scored, 86 RBI, and 13 stolen bases across 154 games, and in 2025, the 31-year-old hit .243 with 23 home runs, 87 runs scored, 79 RBI, and six stolen bases across 150 games. Those are extremely solid numbers for a hitter that you're picking up in the 11th or 12th round of drafts.

To show just how consistent Happ has been since 2023, he is one of only four players to hit at least 20 home runs, total at least 75 RBI, score at least 80 runs, and draw at least 80 walks in each of the past three seasons. The other three players to accomplish this are Shohei Ohtani, Soto, and Kyle Schwarber. Those counting stats all add up.

GRAND SLAM IAN HAPP. pic.twitter.com/wVnwyRHB6R

— Chicago Cubs (@Cubs) April 18, 2025

Therefore, Happ is one of the most undervalued outfielders at his 140.1 ADP in Yahoo! leagues. He will play almost every day in left field and will finish with around a .240 batting average, 20 home runs, 80 RBI, 80 runs scored, and close to double-digit stolen bases. Those are solid all-around numbers for a mid-round pick.

Verdict: Undervalued 

Brandon Nimmo, Texas Rangers

ADP: 154.6

Outfielder Brandon Nimmo was on this exact same list last year. He then went on to have another productive year at the plate, hitting .262 with 25 home runs, 27 doubles, 81 runs scored, 92 RBI, and 13 stolen bases across 155 games for the New York Mets. Those numbers are about what fantasy managers can expect from him again this upcoming season.

Most of his metrics rank around league average, as his barrel rate (8.8%), expected batting average (.252), squared-up rate (26.5%), and expected slugging (.419) ranked between the 47th percentile and the 57th percentile last year. However, Nimmo's recent success at the plate should give fantasy managers confidence in another all-around strong hitting season.

Nimmo has hit at least 23 home runs, totaled at least 90 RBI, scored at least 80 runs, and stolen double-digit bases in each of the last two seasons. That's why the new Rangers outfielder is such a value pick at his 154.6 ADP in Yahoo! leagues. He's much more valuable than someone like Kwan, who is going almost three rounds earlier than him.

Nimmo is definitely an underrated target in the later rounds of fantasy baseball drafts. He's too valuable with the potential for another 25-home run campaign in 2026.

Verdict: Undervalued

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