RADIO
RotoBaller's NHL Premium Picks and Analysis for the DFS slate on FanDuel and DraftKings on December 2, 2023.
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On Thursday night there were 14 games on the slate, negating the ability to take advantage of so much of the value that was presented to us except in the most extreme circumstances. That was a shame, as multiple inexpensive lines had strong games (BUF4 and SEA3 to name a couple). Tonight we get a smaller slate, allowing us to expand our player pools to include many lower-cost stacks, of which there are more than usual. They will be especially useful as pivots off the chalk on the 10:00 pm late slate.
DraftKings has its usual array of low-cost GPP options; four of which cost $20 or less to enter and have a top prize of $1,000 or more, highlighted by the $15-entry Kick Save with a top prize of $10,000. Meanwhile, Fanduel has a $4.44 entry tournament with a $2,000 first prize and a $33 entry, 71-person GPP with $500 for first place. There is a lot of money out there for big spenders and casual players alike. Let’s get that cash!
This is going to be a fun slate with a ton of stacking options. My goal is to help you narrow down your plays to get the most bang for your DFS buck. Be sure to check out all of our NHL articles and NHL DFS tools, including our daily NHL Heat Map. NHL Premium members can find many members of the RotoBaller NHL team in Discord leading up to lock to answer all of your lineup questions.
Top Three Stacks of the Night
Detroit Red Wings (DET1 - Alex DeBrincat, Lucas Raymond, J.T. Compher)
Montreal is a tire fire at home, and we’ve had great success taking advantage of that all year. On Thursday night it was the Florida Panthers who got us there, and tonight it’s looking like the Red Wings are going to follow suit. The Canadiens have allowed 2.68 goals per 60 minutes in five-on-five play at home, which is terrible, yet advanced data shows that they should have allowed 3.28 goals. When a team that’s already bad is staring negative regression in the face, it’s a spot that we have to attack. The reason the Habs have been so bad is that they don’t around the net well at all, allowing a slate-high 14.47 high-danger chances per game at home.
The Red Wings are a league-average offense, but they do have one of the elite scorers in the league in Alex DeBrincat. He hasn’t hit his stride yet this year, but is starting to warm up a little bit with three games of double-digit fantasy points in his last four games, and back-to-back games hitting the shots on goal bonus (five or more). J.T. Compher is a new addition to the line, and he’s the real value here at $4,300; scoring three goals and notching three assists in his last five games. Detroit’s top line is cheap enough that you won’t have to employ a Stars and Scrubs approach to your lineup. You can stack them with another mid-range stack and have a very balanced team.
Philadelphia Flyers (PHI1 - Sean Couturier, Travis Konecny, Tyson Foerster)
The other team with a prime matchup tonight is the Philadelphia Flyers. They travel to Pittsburgh to face a Penguins team that is on the cusp of big-time negative defensive regression. The Pens have allowed a respectable 2.11 goals per 60 minutes in five-on-five play at home, but data suggests that they should have allowed close to three full goals per game. That’s a huge difference that will be hard to sustain. The main reason that this kind of success can’t last is that two of the Penguins three defensive pairings are playing well above their heads. Letang/Graves and Karlsson/Pettersson have allowed fewer goals than expected and each pairing has allowed in excess of 13 high-danger chances per game. That’s not a recipe for success at all.
Meanwhile, the Flyers have played well on the road, scoring three goals per 60 minutes. That’s less than a third of a goal higher than projected, and even if they were to regress they’d still be putting up strong offensive numbers. Like the Red Wings, Philly is cheap enough that you can stack them with another mid-range team and not have to worry about punting any positions. Cam York is an interesting value addition to the stack, as he’s the defender on the power play with all three of the members of this stack.
Toronto Maple Leafs (TOR2 - John Tavares, Mitchell Marner, Tyler Bertuzzi)
The Boston Bruins have the best goalie pairing in the league, but that doesn’t mean they are unbeatable. Their defense has allowed half a goal fewer per 60 minutes in five-on-five play at home, and if they were to regress to their expected total they’d be one of the more vulnerable teams on the slate. This may not be something we’d try to attack with a lesser team, but Toronto’s offense is strong enough to take advantage. Boston’s main issue is that they allow just shy of 13 high-danger chances per game.
John Tavares and company surely will be licking their chops at the prospect of getting juicy shots in front of the Bruins net. The Leafs, for all their struggles, have scored 3.22 goals per 60 minutes on the road this year, and even if they were to regress they’d still be at a healthy 2.81 goals. That’s the kind of stack we are more than happy to spend up on, especially with so many value and mid-range options available to pair with the Leafs.
Others in consideration: ARI1, COL1, VAN2
Top Value Stack of the Night
Seattle Kraken (SEA3 - Oliver Bjorkstrand, Eeli Tolvanen, Yanni Gourde)
I just can’t quit this line. They are one of the more high-powered third lines in all of hockey. Eeli Tolvanen has 17 or more DraftKings points in four of his last seven games, and that alone would be enough to make this a worthwhile stack..but he’s not alone. Oliver Bjorkstrand has scored 20 or more DraftKings points in two of his last four games, with two or more shots on goal in 14 of his last 19 games. This includes multiple games of four or more shots on goal. You just don’t see that kind of aggressiveness from a third line.
The Kraken are sitting in Ottawa tonight, waiting for the Senators to return home after getting steamrolled in Columbus on Friday night. We always love to attack teams coming home on a back-to-back while their opponent waits for them. It just so happens that this is a great matchup as well, as the Senators have allowed 3.62 goals per 60 minutes in five-on-five play at home this year. They just can’t stop anyone, and this is the type of value line that can benefit from a matchup such as this.
Others in consideration: BOS3, MTL3, VAN4, VGK3, PHI2, COL3
Top Goalies to Target
Thatcher Demko (Vancouver Canucks)
Thatcher Demko has been incredible this year, but he’s been far better at home than on the road. Tonight he’s away from home, but at just $7,500 he still profiles to be a good play. While he’s only averaged just over 11 DraftKings points on the road, he’s scored 18 or more fantasy points in four of his seven road games; it’s just his bad games have been really bad. I’m not using Demko in cash because of this wider range of outcomes, but he’s a perfect option for tournaments given his massive upside.
He’s allowing only 2.21 goals per game on the season, and his 96.1% save percentage is the highest on the slate, those numbers are just too strong for a player priced where he is. Calgary hasn’t been bad at home, but Vancouver’s defense doesn’t give up a lot of high-danger chances so they’ll be one of the harder matchups that the Flames have faced at home this year. I’m trusting what I’ve seen from Demko so far and rolling with him at this price point until that regression fully kicks in.
The three NHL goalies with 10+ goals saved above expected in 2023-24 are:
Adin Hill (12.6) #VegasBorn
Thatcher Demko (12.5) #Canucks
Charlie Lindgren (10.9) #ALLCAPS— Walnut Sports (@walnutsports) December 2, 2023
Others in consideration (GPP): Karel Vejmelka, Linus Ullmark, Eric Comrie, Antti Raanta, Alexandar Georgiev
Others in consideration (Cash): Logan Thompson
