NHL DFS Lineup Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings, SuperDraft (1/30): Value Plays, Goalies, Stacks

3 years ago by Jorge Pucks

Welcome, RotoBallers. Hockey season is back and I am thrilled to be covering this sport over at RotoBaller! As always, I will do my best to give you the stats and info you need to build the best lineups possible for your GPP and cash game NHL contests on DraftKings, FanDuel, and SuperDraft.

If you are new to playing NHL DFS, there are several things to know that will help you get caught up to speed. The first thing to know is that stacking lines is important and correlating your plays can pay off. In hockey, if someone scores a goal, there's a good chance that some on his team will receive an assist on that goal, so you want to build lineups around players skating together. The second thing is to make sure you look at the two sites and see the different ways to obtain points. On DraftKings, you get bonus points for 5+ shots or 3+ blocked shots so someone like Alex Ovechkin who is a volume shooter tends to be a better play there just because he can rack up additional points based on his style of play.

Today I'll be bringing you my NHL lineup picks, analysis, and advice for NHL DFS contests on DraftKings, Fanduel, and SuperDraft for Saturday, January 30th, 2020 at 7:00 PM. Be sure to also check out our awesome NHL tools including our Lineup Optimizer, Research Station, Projections, and DFS Cheat Sheets! Feel free to follow me on Twitter @jorgepucks as I am happy to engage with readers and try to answer your questions. Good luck RotoBallers!

NHL DFS Analysis and Picks for 1/30

Toronto Maple Leafs (-130) vs. Edmonton Oilers - 6.5U
Pittsburgh Penguins (-110) vs. New York Rangers (-110) - 6U
Boston Bruins (-139) vs. Washington Capitals - 5.5O
New York Islanders vs. Philadelphia Flyers (-125) - 5.5U
Dallas Stars vs. Carolina Hurricanes (-125) - 5.5U
Nashville Predators vs. Tampa Bay Lightning (-175) - 5.5O
Florida Panthers (-175) vs. Detroit Red Wings -6U
Calgary Flames vs. Montreal Canadiens (-130) - 6U
Colorado Avalanche (-155) vs. Minnesota Wild - 5.5O
St. Louis Blues (-170) vs. Anaheim Ducks - 5.5U
Vancouver Canucks vs. Winnipeg Jets (-130) - 6O

NHL DFS Goalie Analysis Matrix

Team	Rank GA	Rank SA	Rank GF	Rank SF	Total
Toronto	26	13	29	6	21
Edmonton	15	12	17	28	15.5
Pittsburgh	11	26	22	12	20.75
NY Rangers	23	2	27	19	14.75
Boston	1	24	23	10	16.5
Washington	18	23	30	11	18.5
NY Islanders	9	17	10	28	16.75
Philadelphia	7	31	25	16	19
Dallas	2	14	6	23	10
Carolina	11	29	21	3	17.25
Nashville	19	15	16	5	21
Tampa Bay	7	20	31	19	12
Florida	28	10	26	7	17.5
Detroit	31	5	1	31	17.25
Calgary	16	8	12	15	9.75
Montreal	19	18	13	2	16
Colorado	6	15	28	9	16.5
Minnesota	23	21	20	25	20.25
St. Louis	5	28	17	21	15.75
Anaheim	25	11	3	27	18.5
Vancouver	19	4	24	18	13.75
Winnipeg	10	7	15	17	14.75

The matrix above takes the averages of four categories and creates a rating scale to help you decide which goalies to use, which goalies to target against, and conversely which teams could be viable from a stacking standpoint. It looks at four categories: Goals Allowed (GA), Shots Allowed (SA), Goals For (GF), Shots For (SF). The higher the overall rating in the last column indicates that it is a more dangerous matchup for that team's goalie while it might be beneficial to stack against him. I match and sync this every day to the actual opponents that they are facing every slate so this is always slate specific.

NHL DFS Power Play Matrix

Matchup	PP%	Opp PK%
Toronto	6	2
Edmonton	1	21
Pittsburgh	16	23
NY Rangers	7	8
Boston	2	6
Washington	17	3
NY Islanders	24	11
Philadelphia	14	15
Dallas	13	4
Carolina	8	17
Nashville	24	13
Tampa Bay	5	27
Florida	10	30
Detroit	29	20
Calgary	12	19
Montreal	22	8
Colorado	19	25
Minnesota	10	13
St. Louis	3	24
Anaheim	31	18
Vancouver	4	22
Winnipeg	15	16

The Power Play matrix is to help locate matchups that can be exploited should there be an odd-man advantage during the game. Just like the goalie matrix above, the teams are matched up based on their own power play percentage rank and their opponent's penalty kill percentage. When looking at this matrix, you will want to look for teams that succeed in the power play rank while their opponent has a poor penalty kill rank.

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NHL DFS Core Plays

The Core plays below are the players that you should focus on incorporating into your cash game builds and tournament builds. When it comes to cash games, you want guys that offer high floors that rack up peripheral stats (shots, blocks, etc).

When it comes to tournaments, it is best to take a core play and see who their linemates are and build line stacks based on that. I will give 2-3 plays (varies on slate size) at each position at different pricing ranges so that you can have a variety of plays to choose from when building your cash builds.

NHL DFS Center Picks

Aleksander Barkov, FL ($6,900 DK / $7,000 FD) - The center position is loaded on this slate and Barkov is one of the more underrated centers in the league. He is a playmaker for this Panthers top line as he has recorded four points in four games this season and is averaging close to five shots per game. The Red Wings are allowing close to four goals per game to opponents and if Florida gets on the board a few times, Barkov will certainly have played a hand in their scoring opportunities.
Nazem Kadri, COL ($4,700 DK / $5,800 FD) - Kadri is coming off of a monster game against the Sharks where he found the back of the net twice while also collecting an assist. On the season, Kadri has recorded six points in eight total games and is averaging close to four shots on goal per game. With a lot of attention going to the MacKinnon line, the Kadri line gets overlooked which always makes for a nice pivot when building tournament lineups.
Ryan Strome, NYR ($4,100 DK / $4,800 FD) - Strome has gotten off to a slow start to the season as he has only notched two points in seven games played. He has recorded two goals, with one of those coming against the Penguins last weekend. Strome could be put in a favorable spot skating against the Malkin line as that line has allowed nine high danger chances and 27.94 scoring chances per 60 minutes of ice time.

Other centers to consider: MacKinnon, McDavid, Matthews, Bergeron, Scheifele, Point, Crosby, Larkin, Stastny, Eriksson Ek, Lowry

NHL DFS Forward Picks

Brad Marchand, BOS ($7,700 DK / $8,200 FD) - While David Pastrnak still remains out, Marchand has stepped up and picked up the slack offensively for Boston. He has recorded a point in six out of seven games this season and has recorded a point in four straight games. Washington is still missing key pieces to their team on both the offensive and defensive end so Marchand could have himself a nice day as the Caps are allowing three goals and 31 shots per game to opposing teams.
David Perron, STL ($5,000 DK / $6,100 FD) - Perron is quietly heating up and for his recent form, the pricing over on DK is too good to pass up. Perron has recorded five points over his last three games and is averaging six shots on goal during that three-game stretch. The Ducks are a very solid defensive team but allow 32.3 shots per game so Perron could have a chance to rack up some shots on goal and hopefully find the back of the net.
Carter Verhaeghe, FL ($3,800 DK / $4,400 FD)- Verhaeghe continues to produce and his price still remains low on all sites. He has registered a point in every game so far this season and is averaging three shots per game. The ice time is extremely impressive for Verhaeghe as he has seen at least 19 minutes in three out of four games this year and should continue to see this large amount of time as he skates on the top line alongside Barkov.

Other wings to consider: Stamkos, Rantanen, RNH, Marner Rust, Huberdeau, Palat, Konecny, Hornqvist, Kyrou, Copp, Coleman, Lafreniere, Granlund, Dickinson, Kakko

NHL DFS Defenseman Picks

Roman Josi, NSH ($5,800 DK / $6,500 FD) - The pricing on Josi is just too good to pass up over on DK. Josi carries one of the best floors in all of NHL DFS and while he has gotten off to a slow start from a point perspective, the ice time and peripheral stats should help him hit value in most games. It is a tough matchup against Tampa but he should be seeing the ice quite a bit as he will have his hands full with the top Tampa line.
Morgan Rielly, TOR ($5,200 DK / $4,800 FD) - Another defenseman that could benefit in the matchup he is in is Morgan Rielly. Rielly will see plenty of ice time as he will be going up against the likes of McDavid and Draisaitl for most of the night. Edmonton is allowing opposing teams to score 3.7 goals per game and Rielly has been heating up offensively as he has recorded six points in his last three games played (all of them are assists).
Jordie Benn, VAN ($3,400 DK / $3,600 FD) - If you are looking for someone that is cheap and can rack up blocks, Jordie Benn is your guy. Benn is averaging three blocked shots per game and has an assist in two out of four games played. While he doesn't offer the highest upside due to the lack of scoring, Benn could be considered as a solid value option for cash games in what should be a high-paced game.

Other defensemen to consider: Fox, Ekblad, Makar, Ellis, Provorov, Morrissey, Lindell, Nurse, Girard, Faulk, Dobson, Larsson, Ekholm, Brodin, DeMelo, DeAngelo

NHL DFS Goalie Picks

Jordan Binnington, STL ($8,400 DK / $7,300 FD) - Binnington is having a solid start to the season as he is 4-1-1 with a 2.74 goals allowed average and a .913 save percentage. He will be a chalky option in cash game lineups as he is facing an Anaheim team that is scoring 1.8 goals per game so this looks to be one of the safer goalie options on the entire slate. His pricing on FD is insane and would be a lock for me in all formats over there.
Sergei Bobrovsky, FL ($7,900 DK / $7,000 FD) - Rostering Bobrovsky can be quite the experience, and sometimes it just doesn't go well. He is 2-0 on the season with a 3.35 goals allowed average and a .879 save percentage. What is encouraging for Bobrovsky is that Detroit is only averaging two goals scored per game so they aren't a team you truly have to worry about on the offensive end outside of their top line. If Chris Driedger gets the start, he would actually be a safer play as he has only allowed 1.92 goals per game this season despite being 1-0-1 on the year.
Carter Hart, PHI ($7,900 DK / $8,100 FD) - Hart will be playing at home in this game against the Islanders and this could be a get-right game for him. Hart has gotten off to a shaky start this year as he is 3-2-1 with a 3.61 goals allowed average and a .896 save percentage. The Islanders are coming off of a miserable performance Thursday night as they allowed six unanswered goals to the Caps in a 6-3 loss and New York is struggling to score goals outside of their top line as they are only averaging two goals scored per game.

Other goalies to consider: Halak, Mrazek

Note: If you do roster a goalie listed above, it is sometimes best to make a hedge lineup in tournaments and take the opposing offense against them incase he gives up a few goals while that opposing team carries lower ownership.

Favorite NHL DFS Line Stacks

EDM 1
- RNH/ McDavid/ Puljujarvi (Nurse, D-men add on)
  - While both top lines for Toronto and Edmonton are in play in this game, I tend to lean towards the top line for Edmonton. The McDavid line has been clicking on all cylinders ever since Puljujarvi joined McDavid and RNH on the top Oilers line. In 38 minutes of ice time, they're producing a 4.46 expected goals for per 60, 43.6 scoring chances for per 60, and 21.8 high danger chances per 60. They should see a decent amount of the Toronto first line and this line is allowing 27 scoring chances and 14.35 high danger chances per 60.
WPG 1
- Connor/ Scheifele/ Wheeler (Morrissey, D-men add on)
  - The top line for the Jets is a tad pricey and is one of the more expensive full line stacks on the slate but they carry as much upside as any other trio in the league. When at home, the Scheifele line will tend to match up with opponent's top lines and in their game against Vancouver, which means they will most likely skate with the Pettersson line. That Canucks line is sporting a 3.5 expected goals for per 60, allowing 33.21 scoring chances and 18 high-danger opportunities to opposing teams. The Scheifele line for Winnipeg is generating 14.45 high danger opportunities and28.9 scoring chances per 60 minutes so this could be a really good spot to target them if spending up for a stack.
FL 1
- Verhaeghe/ Barkov/ Duclair (Ekblad, D-men add on)
  - The Florida top line has looked great so far to start the season. This line of Barkov, Duclair, and Verhaeghe is producing a 4.25 expected goals for per 60 minutes, 39 scoring chances, and 22.1 high danger chances per 60 minutes to start the season. Detroit is allowing opponents to score 3.6 goals per game while also allowing 30 shots on goal per game so given the matchup and overall cost of this line, they should be one of the overall better line stacks on this slate.