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24Welcome, RotoBallers. Hockey season has now entered the postseason which is the most exciting time to watch and partake in NHL DFS! As always, I'll give you the stats and info you need to build the best lineups possible for your GPP and cash game NHL contests on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
If you are new to playing NHL DFS, there are several things to know that will help you get caught up to speed. The first thing to know is that stacking lines is important and correlating your plays can pay off. In hockey, if someone scores a goal, there's a good chance that some on his team will receive an assist on that goal, so you want to build lineups around players skating together.
In the image above, you'll see that Sidney Crosby is skating in-between Jake Guentzel and Bryan Rust and this line has skated together for most of the year. The idea behind staking forward lines is that if Crosby gets a goal, there is a higher percentage and chance that either Rust or Guentzel would get credited with an assist, therefore, resulting in more fantasy points.
The second thing is to make sure you look at the two sites and see the different ways to obtain points. On DraftKings, you get bonus points for 5+ shots or 3+ blocked shots so someone like Alex Ovechkin who is a volume shooter tends to be a better play on that site just because he can rack up additional points based on his style of play.
Today I'll be bringing you my NHL lineup picks, analysis, and advice for NHL DFS contests on DraftKings and FanDuel for Monday, May 24th, 2020 at 7:00 PM. Be sure to also check out our awesome NHL tools including our Lineup Optimizer, Research Station, Projections, and DFS Cheat Sheets! Feel free to follow me on Twitter @jorgepucks as I am happy to engage with readers and try to answer your questions. Good luck RotoBallers!
NHL DFS Analysis and Picks for 5/24
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- New York Islanders vs. Pittsburgh Penguins (-135) - 5.5U
- Toronto Maple Leafs (-145) vs. Montreal Canadiens - 5.5U
- Tampa Bay Lightning (-110) vs. Florida Panthers (-110) - 6U
- Edmonton Oilers (-130) vs. Winnipeg Jets - 5.5U
- Minnesota Wild vs. Vegas Golden Knights (-175) - 5.5U
NHL DFS Goalie Analysis Matrix
The matrix above takes the averages of four categories and creates a rating scale to help you decide which goalies to use, which goalies to target against, and conversely which teams could be viable from a stacking standpoint. It looks at four categories: Goals Allowed (GA), Shots Allowed (SA), Goals For (GF), Shots For (SF). The higher the overall rating in the total column indicates that it is a more dangerous matchup for that team's goalie while it might be beneficial to stack against him. If the total is low, that means he is in a good matchup from a fantasy perspective and should be considered for your goalie selection. I match and sync this every day to the actual opponents that they are facing every slate so this is always slate specific.
NHL DFS Power Play Matrix
The Power Play matrix is to help locate matchups that can be exploited should there be an odd-man advantage during the game. Just like the goalie matrix above, the teams are matched up based on their own power play percentage rank and their opponent's penalty kill percentage rank. When looking at this matrix, you will want to look for teams that succeed in the power play rank (lower the rank the better they are) while their opponent has a poor penalty kill rank (the higher the rank, the worse their penalty kill is).
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NHL DFS Core Plays
The Core plays below are the players that you should focus on incorporating into your cash game builds and tournament builds. When it comes to cash games, you want guys that offer high floors that rack up peripheral stats (shots, blocks, etc).
When it comes to tournaments, it is best to take a core play and see who their linemates are and build line stacks based on that. I will give a preferred play (varies on slate size) at each position and then other options at different price points so that you can have a variety of plays to choose from when building your cash builds or needing cornerstones for your tournament builds.
NHL DFS Center Picks
- Aleksander Barkov, FLA ($7,600 DK / $7,800 FD) - Despite the Lightning being up 3-1 in their series, Barkov has been on fire from an individual standpoint. Over his last 10 games played, Barkov has recorded at least one point in nine games while managing to record a point in five straight games against Tampa Bay.
- Chandler Stephenson, VGK ($4,400 DK / $4,800 FD) - Stephenson continues to center the top line for Vegas and has not recorded a point in three straight games. While he doesn't offer the biggest upside as a value play, he does get you exposure to a Vegas line that can score multiple goals on any given night.
Other centers to consider based on my preference:
- High Priced- McDavid, Matthews, Crosby, Point
- Mid-Tier- Carter, Bennett, RNH, Malkin, Karlsson
- Value- Hartman, Nelson, Pageau, Wennberg
NHL DFS Forward Picks
- Leon Draisaitl, EDM ($8,000 DK / $7,700 FD) - As I am writing this article, Draisaitl has managed to net two goals and an assist on Sunday night against the Jets. Draisaitl has been relatively quiet in the first two games of their playoffs series against Winnipeg as he has taken eight shots on goal and no points but with this individual breakout performance on Sunday, it could be an offensive spark that they needed despite now being down 3-0 in the series.
- Ondrej Palat, TBL ($4,700 DK / $5,800 FD) - Palat is a solid value play on both sites and would be one to consider from a cash game standpoint if trying to get exposure to Tampa on this slate. Palat has recorded nine points in 11 games this season against the Panthers and has managed to find the back of the net in two of his last three games.
Other wings to consider based on my preference:
- High Priced- Marner, Kucherov, Stone, Pacioretty, Kaprizov, Stamkos, Guentzel, Huberdeau
- Mid-Tier- Marchessault, wheeler, Hornqvist, Rust, Ehlers, Tuch, Puljujarvi
- Value- McCann, Eberle, Smith, Zuccarello, Kapanen, Zucker, Tippett, Bailey
NHL DFS Defenseman Picks
- Alec Martinez, VGK ($5,600 DK / $4,600 FD) - Martinez is an ideal candidate for a cash game defenseman, especially over on DK. He has recorded 35 peripheral stats over his last five games and is averaging over 10 double-digit DK points during that stretch. Martinez usually sees over 20 minutes of ice time per game which means he will have all kinds of opportunities to record shots on goal and blocked shots.
- Jonas Brodin, MIN ($4,200 DK / $4,000 FD) - If you're looking for a cheaper version of Alec Martinez, you could look at rostering Jonas Brodin. Brodin sees 20+ minutes of ice time per game and is averaging close to four peripheral stats per game over his last five games played. Brodin has managed to record a point in two of the four games played against Vegas so far during this playoff series so there is some point upside to rostering him as well.
Other defensemen to consider based on my preference:
- High Priced- Hedman, Pietrangelo, Letang
- Mid-Tier- Theodore, Barrie, Nurse, Rielly, Pulock, Pionk
- Value- Mayfield, Sergachev, Chiarot, Cernak, Brodie, Forbort
NHL DFS Goalie Picks
- Marc-Andre Fleury, VGK ($8,400 DK / $8,500 FD) - After dropping Game 1 at home, the Golden Knights have bounced back in a very big way as they have rattled off three straight wins with Fleury only allowing a total of four goals scored in the series so far. Fleury is coming off of a shutout performance on Saturday night where he recorded 35 saves en route to a 4-0 victory. With how well this Vegas defense is playing and with them also having home ice advantage for Monday night's game, Fleury comes into this game as the best overall option on the slate at the goalie position.
Other goalies to consider based on my preference:
- High Priced- Campbell, Jarry
- Mid-Tier- Vasilevskiy
- Value- Hellebuyck
Note: If you do roster a goalie listed above, it is sometimes best to make a hedge lineup in tournaments and take the opposing offense against them in case he gives up a few goals while that opposing team carries lower ownership. Also, make sure that the goalie listed above is starting and if not, make sure to pivot!
Favorite NHL DFS Line Stacks
- PIT 1
- Guentzel/ Crosby/ Rust (Letang, D-men add on)
- The top line for the Penguins looked very strong in both home games against the Islanders earlier in the series and we should expect a similar matchup for them tonight against New York. In just 31 minutes of ice time, this line generated a 58.46 corsi while recording two 5v5 goals while also having 26 scoring chances and eight high-danger opportunities. This line is generating a 3.23 expected goals for per 60 when at home in the playoffs and is generating a scoring chance rate of 48.8 per 60 and 15.02 high danger opportunities so look to Crosby, Guentzel, and Rust to dominate their line match tonight and hopefully light the lamp a few times.
- Guentzel/ Crosby/ Rust (Letang, D-men add on)
Other Stacks to consider in order of preference: TOR 1, EDM 1, FLA 1, TBL 1, FLA 2, PIT 3
Key Abbreviations:
xGF/60= expected goal for per 60 minutes of ice time
GF/60= goals for per 60 minutes of ice time
SC/60= Scoring Chances per 60 minutes of ice time
If you have any additional questions, make sure to reach out to me on Twitter or in our NHL room at the RotoBaller slack chat!
