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Welcome, RotoBallers. Hockey season is back and I am thrilled to be covering this sport over at RotoBaller! As always, I will do my best to give you the stats and info you need to build the best lineups possible for your GPP and cash game NHL contests on DraftKings and FanDuel.
If you are new to playing NHL DFS, there are several things to know that will help you get caught up to speed. The first thing to know is that stacking lines is important and correlating your plays can pay off. In hockey, if someone scores a goal, there's a good chance that some on his team will receive an assist on that goal, so you want to build lineups around players skating together. The second thing is to make sure you look at the two sites and see the different ways to obtain points. On DraftKings, you get bonus points for 5+ shots or 3+ blocked shots so someone like Alex Ovechkin who is a volume shooter tends to be a better play there just because he can rack up additional points based on his style of play.
Today I'll be bringing you my NHL lineup picks, analysis, and advice for NHL DFS contests on DraftKings and FanDuel for Thursday, May 20th, 2020 at 6:30 PM. Be sure to also check out our awesome NHL tools including our Lineup Optimizer, Research Station, Projections, and DFS Cheat Sheets! Feel free to follow me on Twitter @jorgepucks as I am happy to engage with readers and try to answer your questions. Good luck RotoBallers!
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NHL DFS Analysis and Picks for 5/20
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- Florida Panthers vs. Tampa Bay Lightning (-150) - 5.5O
- Pittsburgh Penguins (-105) vs. New York Islanders (-115) - 5O
- Montreal Canadiens vs. Toronto Maple Leafs (-200) - 5.5O
- Vegas Golden Knights (-115) vs. Minnesota Wild (-105) - 5.5U
NHL DFS Goalie Analysis Matrix
| Team | Rank GA | Rank SA | Rank GF | Rank SF | Total |
| Florida | 9 | 16 | 27 | 1 | 14 |
| Tampa Bay | 6 | 23 | 23 | 8 | 14.25 |
| Pittsburgh | 13 | 16 | 30 | 9 | 15 |
| New York Islanders | 2 | 22 | 11 | 20 | 15.75 |
| Montreal | 18 | 26 | 14 | 7 | 19 |
| Toronto | 8 | 25 | 26 | 6 | 13.5 |
| Vegas | 1 | 28 | 29 | 4 | 19.75 |
| Minnesota | 16 | 14 | 23 | 27 | 15.75 |
The matrix above takes the averages of four categories and creates a rating scale to help you decide which goalies to use, which goalies to target against, and conversely which teams could be viable from a stacking standpoint. It looks at four categories: Goals Allowed (GA), Shots Allowed (SA), Goals For (GF), Shots For (SF). The higher the overall rating in the total column indicates that it is a more dangerous matchup for that team's goalie while it might be beneficial to stack against him. If the total is low, that means he is in a good matchup from a fantasy perspective and should be considered for your goalie selection. I match and sync this every day to the actual opponents that they are facing every slate so this is always slate specific.
NHL DFS Power Play Matrix
| Matchup | PP Rank | Opp PK Rank |
| Florida | 15 | 4 |
| Tampa Bay | 9 | 17 |
| Pittsburgh | 4 | 6 |
| New York Islanders | 20 | 27 |
| Montreal | 18 | 22 |
| Toronto | 16 | 22 |
| Vegas | 22 | 12 |
| Minnesota | 23 | 1 |
The Power Play matrix is to help locate matchups that can be exploited should there be an odd-man advantage during the game. Just like the goalie matrix above, the teams are matched up based on their own power play percentage rank and their opponent's penalty kill percentage rank. When looking at this matrix, you will want to look for teams that succeed in the power play rank (lower the rank the better they are) while their opponent has a poor penalty kill rank (the higher the rank, the worse their penalty kill is).
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NHL DFS Core Plays
The Core plays below are the players that you should focus on incorporating into your cash game builds and tournament builds. When it comes to cash games, you want guys that offer high floors that rack up peripheral stats (shots, blocks, etc).
When it comes to tournaments, it is best to take a core play and see who their linemates are and build line stacks based on that. I will give 2-3 plays (varies on slate size) at each position at different pricing ranges so that you can have a variety of plays to choose from when building your cash builds or needing cornerstones for your tournament builds.
NHL DFS Center Picks
- Auston Matthews, TOR ($9,200 DK / $8,800 FD) - Matthews is well-rested and should be ready to go against the Canadiens on Thursday night for the opening game of their series. Matthews has dominated Montreal this season as he has scored seven goals while recording seven assists in 10 total games while also managing to take 45 total shots on goal.
Other centers to consider:
- High Priced- Barkov, Crosby, Point
- Mid-Tier- Malkin, Bennett, Karlsson, Carter, Stephenson, Eriksson Ek
- Value- Nelson, Gourde, Pageau, Cirelli, Hartman,Wennberg
NHL DFS Forward Picks
- Nikita Kucherov, TBL ($8,300 DK / $8,300 FD) - The pricing on Kucherov is starting to rise but with the Lightning now getting the home-ice matching advantage, he seems to be a lock type of player when it comes to all formats. Kuch has registered a point in back-to-back games and has recorded seven shots on goal so he continues to have the green light anytime he has possession of the puck.
Other wings to consider:
- High Priced- Marner, Pacioretty, Guentzel, Kaprizov, Stone, Huberdeau, Stamkos, Hornqvist, Marchessault
- Mid-Tier- Rust, Fiala, Hyman, Verhaeghe, McCann, Zuccarello, Palat
- Value- Smith, Eberle, Tuch, Kapanen, Coleman, Zucker, Tippett, Foligno, Palmieri, Gusev, Parise, NOsek
NHL DFS Defenseman Picks
- Kris Letang, PIT ($5,700 DK / $6,000 FD) - Letang has been very solid from a floor standpoint and would be a great defenseman candidate for your cash game builds. He has recorded 11 peripheral stats so far in this series against the Islanders and has fared well against New York this year as he has scored four goals and recorded five assists in 10 total games.
Other defensemen to consider:
- High Priced- Pietrangelo, Hedman
- Mid-Tier- Theodore, Martinez, Rielly, Spurgeon, Weber, Muzzin, Sergachev, Pulock
- Value- Dumba, Brodin, McDonagh, Forsling, Cernak, Yandle, Leddy, Suter, Matheson, Brodie, Hague
NHL DFS Goalie Picks
- Jack Campbell, TOR ($8,400 DK / $8,100 FD) - The Maple Leafs are the heaviest favorite on this four-game slate and there is no reason to think that Campbell can't get the job done against Montreal on home ice. Campbell was dominant during the regular season as he had a 17-3-2 record with a 2.15 goals allowed average and a .921 save percentage. Campbell was tough to beat at home as he went 7-1 and sported a 2.50 goals allowed average when defending the net on home ice while recording a shutout as well. One other thing to note is that Campbell went 4-1-1 against the Canadiens during the regular season with a 2.16 goals allowed average and a .918 save percentage so he look to be an ideal candidate to pick up the win and have a good quality outing.
Other goalies to consider:
- High Priced- Vasilevskiy
- Mid-Tier- Jarry
- Value- Talbot
Note: If you do roster a goalie listed above, it is sometimes best to make a hedge lineup in tournaments and take the opposing offense against them in case he gives up a few goals while that opposing team carries lower ownership. Also, make sure that the goalie listed above is starting and if not, make sure to pivot!
Favorite NHL DFS Line Stacks
- TOR 1
- Hyman/ Matthews/ Marner (Rielly, D-men add on)
- It looks like the Maple Leafs will slide Zach Hyman up to the top line for their first game of the playoffs and this could be a really good move for Toronto. This line has seen over 289 minutes of ice time together and they are sporting an expected goals for rate of 3.23 per 60 minutes of ice time. In addition, they're generating 36.72 scoring chances and 17.01 high danger chances for per 60 and will have the extra benefit of controlling the line matches since they will be skating on home ice. This line has scored 14 goals at 5v5 when on home ice injust 154 minutes so they certainly have the scoring upside needed to help you take down a tournament.
- Hyman/ Matthews/ Marner (Rielly, D-men add on)
Other Stacks to consider: TBL 1, PIT 2, MIN 2, VGK 2
Key Abbreviations:
xGF/60= expected goal for per 60 minutes of ice time
GF/60= goals for per 60 minutes of ice time
SC/60= Scoring Chances per 60 minutes of ice time
If you have any additional questions, make sure to reach out to me on Twitter or in our NHL room at the RotoBaller slack chat!
