Don't have an account?
Join the Best Live Fantasy Chat Community!

Lost password? [X]

Receive free daily analysis:

NFL    NBA    MLB

Already have an account? Log in here.

[X]

Forgot Password


[X]

NFL Survivor Pool Picks (Week 7) - Targets and Avoids


Another week, more upsets. The Cowboys, Chiefs and Chargers all went down knocking out about 15-20 percent of remaining entrants in survivor pools, including myself. The Baltimore and New England wins were never in doubt, but the Redskins and Packers just barely squeaked out wins.

If you've made it this far, you've done a job well done. While it has felt easier this year with some massive favorites, underdogs are on the prowl going 54-35-2 against the spread (60.7 percent). That just shows how close these NFL games are, and how well the dogs are playing. This week there is one enormous home favorite, two heavy favorites, and the rest are projected to be tight games.

If you are reading this article on Thursday or later, the lines below are correct as of Wednesday. The teams I like against the spread will be italicized, with my three best bets against the spread able to be found on the bottom of the column. Teams on bye this week are the Browns, Bucs, Panthers and Steelers.

Editor's Note: Get any rest-of-season NFL Premium Pass for 50% off. Our exclusive DFS Tools, Lineup Optimizer and Premium DFS Research through the Super Bowl. Sign Up Now!

 

Top Survivor Picks for Week 7

Bills -17 vs. Dolphins

This will be the only time you'll be able to use Buffalo. Their defense will throttle Miami. There is not much else needed to be said about this game.

Bills 24 - Dolphins 3

 

49ers -10 vs. Redskins

Washington ran the ball well last week (33 attempts for 145 yards), whereas they threw 25 times for 166 yards. I assume they'll take a similar approach against the Niners, but San Francisco is sixth in opponent rushing yards per game. I do think the Redskins will come through with a backdoor cover though.

49ers 20 - Redskins 10

 

Patriots -9.5 @ Jets

This game will be a close one with the rejuvenated Jets at home on Monday night. I expect a low-scoring game, which gives the Jets a decent shot.

Patriots 17 - Jets 13

 

Top Survivor Picks to Avoid

Packers -5.5 vs. Raiders

This line opened at seven and has been bet down to 5.5, which is surprising because the Packers are usually a public team especially when playing in Lambeau. But Green Bay is overrated and had no business beating the Lions on Monday night. Their offense is in the bottom half of yards per play (18th) -  and their defense, which looked really good early, is ranked 18th and they've allowed 6.5 yards the last three games (third most). They also are really struggling to keep the chains moving on third downs ranking 27th. It is important to note that Oakland's defense ranks in the bottom half of the league according to the stats I looked at. But, they are off a bye so they will be fresh.

The Raiders offense is fairly good ranking 13th in yard per play, eighth in third-down conversion percentage, and 13th in the red zone. They also are ninth in controlling the clock, meaning they'll keep Aaron Rodgers off the field.

Finally, Vegas is begging you to put the Packers in a teaser, which means they think Oakland has a legitimate shot to win.

Raiders 27 - Packers 24

 

Chiefs -3 @ Broncos

It's fairly obvious how to beat the Chiefs; run the ball and control the clock. The Broncos are 14th in rushing yards per game and 15th in yards per attempt (Indy and Houston were both top-five in yards per game). Denver is 20th in time of possession. Are those stats good enough to beat KC? I'd lean yes. Patrick Mahomes' ankle is still an issue, and the Broncos Defense is finally living up to their preseason hype allowing 13 points against in the last three games.

Chiefs 23 - Broncos 21

 

Jaguars -3.5 @ Bengals

Jacksonville may seem like a sneaky survivor play against the winless Bengals, but it's tough to back a team that averages 19.5 points per game (23rd in the league). The Bengals Defense is not good, but they rank seventh in red zone defense. That's huge against a Jaguars team that ranks 29th in red zone touchdown percentage. I think that makes the difference.

Bengals 17 - Jaguars 16

 

The Rest

Rams -3 @ Falcons - I still haven't given up on the Rams, and if there's one team to play when the offense is seemingly broken, it's Atlanta. They are 27th in opponent yards per play, 27th in opponent passing yards (331 yards allowed in the last three games), 32nd in opponent third-down conversion percentage, and 31st in red zone defense. The Rams will find their offensive mojo again.

Vikings -1 @ Lions - This will be a close one, and Detroit hasn't been able to close out close games. Ultimately Minnesota's offense (third in yards per play) will be too much for Detroit.

Colts -1 vs. Texans - Houston seems to be back on track after a huge win in Kansas City, but I don't trust them. The Colts are a really physical team and will be fresh off the bye.

Giants -3 vs. Cardinals - These teams are literally dead even. It's unknown if Saquon Barkley or Even Engram will be back - but either way, this is an early 1 PM start on the East Coast for a West Coast team.

Titans -2 vs. Chargers - This line opened at pick'em - and despite 68 percent of the bets coming on the Chargers, the line has shifted to Titans -2 which means the smart/sharp/wiseguy money is all on Tennessee.

Saints +3 @ Bears - New Orleans can win with scoring, or win ugly in a tight-defensive battle. The Saints have more play-makers on offense, and how can you trust Mitch Trubisky on offense? Plus, the Bears "vaunted" defense has allowed too many game-winning touchdown drives.

Seahawks -3.5 vs. Ravens - I'm scared of the hook here with the half point, but the Ravens will finally be tested Sunday afternoon and the league will finally see how bad their defense is. They rank 30th in opponent yards per play and Russell Wilson will expose them.

Eagles +3 @ Cowboys - The way to beat Philly is by throwing downfield like Kirk Cousins did to them on Sunday. Dak Prescott has not looked like he could do that of late.

 

Best Bets for Week 7

  • Raiders +5.5
  • Rams -3
  • Eagles +3

Last week: 2-1

Season total: 10-8

More Week 6 Lineup Prep




More Recent Articles

 

Bases Loaded Podcast - Relief Pitchers Preview

Mike Kurland (@Mike_Kurland) is joined by Jorge Montanez, Zach Braff and Mike Simione as they jump into their relief pitcher preview! Subscribe to the Bases Loaded podcast, part of RotoBaller Radio's Podcast Network. Like and Subscribe to the RotoBaller channel on Youtube to get all our latest podcasts and catch us on iTunes and BlogTalkRadio as well!... Read More


2020 Fantasy Baseball Sleepers - Jose Urquidy

It's been a tumultuous winter for the Houston Astros. Not only were they embroiled in a sign-stealing scandal (which has, naturally, progressed apace to unsubstantiated conspiracy theories about ever more sophisticated methods of cheating), but they watched staff ace Gerrit Cole sign a mammoth free-agent deal with the Yankees. Plenty of virtual ink has been... Read More


2020 Fantasy Baseball Sleepers - Mark Canha

Mark Canha had a solid 2019 campaign and is one player that probably deserves more attention heading into 2020 than he is currently receiving. He finished the season hitting .273/.396/.517 with 26 HR, 58 RBI, 80 R, and 67 BB in 410 at-bats. It was a very productive line for a guy that played in... Read More


Four Prospect Sleepers for 2020 Redraft Leagues

Recently, Rotoballer launched a list of the Top 50 MLB prospects for the coming year. The top of the list was populated by names such as Gavin Lux, Luis Robert, and Brendan McKay. These players, among others, feature a promising combination of talent and favorable playing time projections to suggest they’ll be the cream-of-the-crop among... Read More


ADP Cost Analysis – Robbie Ray vs Trevor Bauer

With fantasy baseball draft season in full swing, those of us who partake in this joyous game are now looking through as much draft data as possible in a bid to find players we love who have lower average draft positions (ADP) than we believe they should. All this to eke out as much draft... Read More


2020 Keeper Value Rankings - Second Base

Keeper Value Rankings are intended for Keeper Leagues in which a fantasy owner must forfeit a designated draft pick in order to keep a player into the upcoming season. These rankings are based on Keeper "Values". In the marketing world, Value can be defined as "the extent to which a good or service (player) is... Read More


2020 Fantasy Baseball Sleepers – C.J. Cron

As another fantasy baseball season approaches, we once again have the chance to discuss C.J. Cron as a fantasy sleeper. Cron will be playing for his third team in three seasons. It is tough to wrap one's head around the idea that a player of Cron's talent continues to be undervalued by professional and fantasy... Read More


2020 Starting Pitcher Rankings - H2H Points Leagues

Points leagues may seem like a slight variation from traditional 5x5 category scoring leagues but you must approach draft day with a very different strategy if you wish to truly compete. All preseason long, RotoBaller has you covered with the latest rankings for all fantasy baseball league types. Here we present our points league rankings... Read More


Second-Half Improvements: Buy Into These Starting Pitchers

The second half of the season is always put under a microscope for starting pitchers. Fantasy players have a love for the second half of the season, as the belief is that pitchers who take a step forward could carry over that success the next season and perhaps even build upon it. But, as we... Read More


How to Attack RP in SV+HLD Leagues

No position has seen as much evolution in recent seasons as the relief pitcher. Gone are the days where starters were expected to go seven innings as most teams have embraced the idea of "super-bullpening" and try to fit as many pitchers that can throw 95+ MPH into their bullpen as they can. Many fantasy... Read More


Using Sabermetrics for Fantasy Baseball: Pitch Info

One of the most fundamental questions in fantasy sports is if a player's current performance is sustainable. More than any other sport, baseball has a slew of statistical measures that can be dissected in numerous ways to analyze player performance. Pitch Info is a publicly-available pitch tracking system that provides a lot of different data to... Read More


2020 Fantasy Baseball Staff Rankings

Below you will find RotoBaller's 2020 fantasy baseball rankings, tiers and auction dollar values for the 2020 MLB season. Our Ranking Wizard displays our staff's rankings for various league formats, all in one easy place. Here's what you'll find: Mixed, Head-to-Head, Points, AL/NL Only, Two-Catcher Top 2020 prospects, Dynasty leagues, Keeper values Export the rankings easily... Read More


Mock Draft Review: Best Late-Round Targets

Last week, some members of the RotoBaller staff completed a 12-team mock draft for standard 5x5 format. After the draft, we each broke down our strategy and some of our favorite picks, which can be found here. However, I want to take a closer look at one portion of the draft in particular. Since we know that... Read More


Faster and Furious: Pitchers with Rising Velocity/Performance

Welcome fantasy baseball players! I’m sure that you, like me, are anxiously counting down the days until your drafts and Opening Day. While the fantasy season may not start for several weeks, there are plenty of things we can do to start preparing for a successful season. One of those things is to take a good... Read More


James Karinchak Is A Relief Pitcher To Know in 2020

One of the lesser-known players that intrigues me for the 2020 MLB season is Indians relief pitcher James Karinchak. The former Bryant Bulldog was drafted by Cleveland in the ninth round in the 2017 draft and went on to have one of the most outrageous statistical seasons in minor league baseball history. As someone who... Read More