NFL Draft Reaction - TE ADP Fallers

May 9, 2021

Antonio Losada takes a look at the ADP variation of multiple tight ends in the weeks before and after the last NFL Draft and assesses their situations and the reasons behind those moves.

We've been examining some of the top ADP risers following the outcomes of the 2021 NFL Draft, including a look at RB Risers, WR Risers, TE Risers, and QB Risers. We now shift to the other side of the equation with some declining values. We've already covered WR Fallers, so now it's time to move to tight ends.

Low or high ADP values, though, are not gospel. Each of us fantasy GMs have our strategies and value players differently depending on what we think is the most important for them to have in terms of abilities. No matter what, though, ADPs are good to know the "average value" of the "average GM" you'll be drafting against.

By now, with free agency and the draft finalized and just a few players left to be signed, it makes sense to look at how ADPs are varying during the last few days as we start to gear up for our fantasy draft season. In this series, I’ll highlight players at each skill position seeing significant fluctuation from just before the past NFL draft to right after it finished, using data from FFPC drafts that have taken place in that period. Today, it's time to look at some tight end fallers.

Tight End - ADP Fallers

Robert Tonyan, Green Bay Packers

The Green Bay Packers are a freaking headache for fantasy GMs out there. First of all, their no. 1 player and stud-QB Aaron Rodgers is feuding against the front office for the nth year in a row, but this time it looks like a cold war is coming with none of the two parts involved willing to concede. The Packers, if you remember, drafted a quarterback last year instead of bolstering the offense at skill-position slots such as WR and TE. And now, after another round of offseason moves, all Green Bay did was add rookie WR Amari Rodgers to their offense while losing RB Jamaal Williams to free agency. Yikes.

This doesn't mean that the Packers have lost any value when it comes to championship aspirations or fantasy upside IF Rodgers ends up playing this season and is on the field from Week 1. Will that happen, though? Hard (seriously) to know these days. Tonyan will remain as the Packers no. 1 TE entering 2021 with Marcedes Lewis as the secondary option.

Robert Tonyan, truth be told, had a season for the ages coming absolutely out of left field. Tonyan was targeted 59 times and converted 52 of those passes in receptions. That was a freaking ridiculous number, and a true outlier among all players with 55+ targets on the season, as nobody topped an 85% catch rate other than Tonyan. On top of that, Tonyan scored 11 (!) touchdowns on the year, also posting the lowest REC: TD ratio among receivers and tight ends with 55+ targets. Draft Tonyan, and you'll be getting a guy coming off a career year... with the chance of playing under QB2 Jordan Love come Week 1.

Evan Engram, New York Giants

Evan Engram was a stud until he wasn't. That stud belonged to the 2017 year, his rookie season, and the "until" refers to every year from 2018 to 2020. Ugh. That might be a little bit harsh, but the truth is that Engram is three years removed from finishing as a TE1 in the NFL (he was the fifth-best TE in 2017). In the last three seasons, Engram has played 11, eight, and 16 games but he's not topped 141 PPR points in any of those years. The Giants' quarterbacking has been rather mediocre of late, sure, but that's no real excuse to go from a TE5 finish to a TE15 in 2020.

Engram was tied for the third-best WR/TE of the Giants last season, posting the same PPR points as Darius Slayton and falling behind Sterling Shepard's WR43 season and 162.5 FP tally. Engram, though, is facing more than a single problem entering 2021. The Giants have added a true no. 1 WR in Kenny Golladay by paying him big-time money in free agency. They also added John Ross as a free agent, and then went on to draft WR Kadarius Toney with the 20th overall pick in last week's draft. I mean, if Daniel Jones can't make this work, then I don't even know...

Oh, before I forget about it: Saquon Barkley is back. That's it, that's all you need to know. Not only is New York ramping up the efforts in building an impressive (at least on paper) offense, but they are also getting their more than probably no. 1 offensive player back after he played one full game in 2020. Engram has shown flashes of talent in the past and is not the worst TE out there, but Jones' new toys combined with the return of Saquon don't bode well for Engram's upside.

Zach Ertz, Philadelphia Eagles

Ertz was targeted 23 times in the last four games of the 2020 season, all of them started by new Eagles QB1 Jalen Hurts. While that's not a bad outcome, the truth is that Ertz did pretty much nothing with those targets. Ertz went on to catch 10 of those 23 passes for a kinda-meh 126 yards, an average of 13.7 yards per catch... and no scores at all. That last bit of information is hardly surprising, though, as Ertz had his worst season ever in 2020 with just one touchdown over the year (11 GP), something that he had never done--Ertz's career-low in touchdowns was two back in his third season as a pro in 2015.

The ADP drop is far from notable at just six draft picks (half a round in 12-team leagues), but still a top-three one in the past 10 days at the time of this writing. Not only is Ertz potentially facing a decline after finishing in the TE1 realm in the 2015-2019 span, but he's also going to endure a "new" quarterback for the full season, is coming off an injury-ravaged year in which he could only play 11 games......and will face competition in old foes Jalen Reagor, Greg Ward, Travis Fulgham, Dallas Goedert... and newcomer WR DeVonta Smith, the 10th pick in last week's NFL draft. Ugh. Ertz has been a fantasy staple for the past half-decade, but his heyday might be over now that we're into the 2020s and most fantasy GMs are starting to realize that.

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