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Corey Johnson presents his expert NFL DFS prop picks for the Week 1 Monday Night Football games. Use these prop picks to win money on Monkey Knife Fight, our partner for all DFS prop picks games.
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For Monday Night Football this week, we have two games, rather than the normal one game. The first game will start at 715PM ET between the Saints and Texans. The second game will be at 1020PM ET between the Raiders and Broncos. Both games offer numerous favorable Props that we can attack! Let's dig in and see where the opportunities to make some money are.
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Houston Texans @ New Orleans Saints
Over/Under Contest
Recommended Prop Pick: Three of Four: Drew Brees over 289.5 Passing Yards, DeAndre Hopkins over 98 Receiving Yards, Alvin Kamara under 57.5 Rushing Yards, and Michael Thomas over 6.5 Receptions
These Three of Four contest are excellent, primarily in high implied total games such as this Texans and Saints matchup. The implied total is currently set right around 54 total points and New Orleans already has a reputation as being a fast track; there is a really good chance that this is the highest total game of the entire week.
The Saints certainly have the ability of running the ball but Brees has always preferred to move the ball through the air; Kamara and Thomas will be the primary targets which makes the UNDER for Kamara on 57.5 rushing yards, the OVER on Thomas's 6.5 receptions, and the OVER on Brees's 289.5 passing yards quite attractive.
Lastly, if the Saints are moving the ball effectively through the air, the Texans will be forced to follow as their backfield is struggling with the loss of Lamar Miller. Hopkins is an elite wide receiver who can thrive in a fast paced environment, Hopkins should have no problems getting to 100 receiving yard. And remember, we are shooting for four of four, but you only have to go three of four to make 2.27 times your bet!
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Houston Texans @ New Orleans Saints
Over/Under Contest
Recommended Prop Pick: Six of Six: Drew Brees over 289.5, Deshaun Watson over 272.5 passing yards, DeAndre Hopkins over 6.5 receptions, Michael Thomas over 86.5 yards, Alvin Kamara under 57.5 rushing yards, and Duke Johnson under 45.5 rushing yards.
First of all, it is really important to understand that this six of six prop is really high risk/high reward so be very careful not to destroy your bankroll with this one bet. In this bet, there are two exact props from above, which I kept the same (Brees and Kamara). The other four all fit the game flow that we expect out of this matchup: fast-pace and through the air. Quarterbacks and receivers hit their over and running backs hit their under for 34 times your bet.
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Denver Broncos @ Oakland Raiders
Over / Under Contest
Recommended Prop Pick: Joe Flacco under 250.5 passing yards and Derek Carr under 244.5 passing yards.
Unlike the other Monday Night Football game, this Broncos and Raiders game could be pretty ugly; the implied total is the second lowest of the entire week at just 43 points. The Broncos Defense has the potential of being one of the best in the league and without Antonio Brown, Carr is really going to struggle to get anywhere close to 244.5 passing yards.
On the other hand, the Raiders Defense is likely going to be well below average and very attackable this year. However, in a likely low-scoring game I think that most of the work is going to go to the Broncos backfield, rather than through the air with Flacco. In a game script like this, Flacco hits the under on 250.5 passing yards more times than not.
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