RADIO
We've reached the Armageddon of NFL bye weeks here in Week 9 with the Cleveland Browns, Dallas Cowboys, Denver Broncos, New York Giants, Pittsburgh Steelers, and San Francisco 49ers all not playing this week. Why the NFL has decided to have two teams on a bye some weeks and six in others makes no sense, as well as no teams being on a bye for Week 12. Make it make sense, Roger Goodell!
As we are basically at the halfway point of the 2022 NFL season, for DFS purposes have to remain cognizant of how much player values have changed throughout the season. We were able to get Saquon Barkley at some bargain prices for the first few weeks of the season, but that is no longer the case. Finding good value at Tight End for the main slate will be important as well with Travis Kelce playing on SNF and Mark Andrews playing on MNF. Last week was another good week as far as DFS values were concerned. Some of whom I suggested were: Tony Pollard (RB4), D'Onta Foreman (RB5), DJ Moore (WR5), and Garrett Wilson (WR15).
This article will run every week throughout the regular season. It won't include the obvious choices but instead players who appear to be undervalued in current DFS formats. If you didn't catch my Week 1 article that included some DFS tips and tricks, it can be found here. As the values currently sit, players will qualify as a value in DFS for this article if they are a quarterback in the 5k range, running backs who are 6k or less, wide receivers at 5.5k and under, and 4k or less for tight ends based on DraftKings salaries. When it comes to tournaments, stacking our quarterback with one of their pass catchers is a must and we should be looking for players with higher guaranteed floors (and consistency) to get us over the 50/50 hump in cash games. No matter which one you decide to play this week, here are some bargain players with potential in Week 9. Now let's get to them picks already!
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Quarterback NFL DFS Value Plays - Week 9
Aaron Rodgers, GB at DET | DK: $5,900, FD: $7,000
It's been a rough first half of the season for Aaron Rodgers, as well as Packers fans. After their star quarterback signed a new deal to remain in Green Bay, the front office sent Davante Adams to the Las Vegas Raiders and tried to make up for it by signing some older free agents and drafting two new rookies who haven't really done much. On a points-per-game basis for fantasy, Rodgers currently sits as the QB17 on the season at 14.5 PPG. Not great, Bob.
The good news, however? Rodgers gets the Lions this week, who is the perfect antidote for an ailing offense. Some of Rodgers' biggest games have come at the hands of the Lions over the years and currently, they are giving up the second-most fantasy points to quarterbacks this season at 22.3 per game! This Sunday's contest is a must-win for the Pack to keep their playoff hopes alive even though the offense has looked anything but the typical juggernaut we are used to.
A-Rodg has yet to throw for 3 TDs or 300 yards in a single game so far this season. To put that in perspective, from 2017-21 it was a feat he accomplished in 54% of the full games he played, often accomplishing both. If the Packers' offense can't get it right against the Lions this week, then it might signal the end of their season. I'm willing to roll the dice on Rodgers getting it together against one of the worst defensive units in the NFL.
Justin Fields, CHI vs MIA | DK: $5,300, FD: $7,400
I'm throwing out the first month of the season when it comes to the Bears. Head Coach Matt Eberflus and Offensive Coordinator Luke Getsy were adjusting to their new roles and had a difficult time figuring out how to use Fields. The Bears were on pace for some of the fewest passing yards and pass attempts since George Halas' teams in the 1930s, but Chicago has appeared to right the ship on offense.
Early in the year, Fields was a disaster for fantasy. For the first month of the season, he was the QB23, QB27, QB31, and QB26, which had fantasy managers all over panicking. However, since Week 5 the Bears have begun clicking on offense and Fields is thriving. Over the last month, he has finished as the QB13, QB8, QB5, and QB5! While it may be hard to get the first few games out of our heads, it's important to remember that isn't as relevant anymore for fantasy.
This Sunday against the Dolphins, Fields has another opportunity to shine. Miami is giving up the seventh-most fantasy points to quarterbacks this season at 20.2 per game. The Bears have a nice little pocket of teams coming up in their schedule over the next month as well with the Dolphins, Lions, Falcons, Jets, and Packers. As long as he continues to improve his game and his price on DKs stays below $6k expect him to be on this list every week.
Running Back NFL DFS Value Plays - Week 9
Travis Etienne Jr., JAC vs LV | DK: $6,300, FD: $7,600
With James Robinson now moved to the Jets, the lead running back duties in Jacksonville belong to Travis Etienne. He has gone over 100 yards rushing in each of the last two weeks while playing about 80 percent of the team's offensive snaps. While the Jaguars' offense has been struggling lately, they have lost a handful of close games but find themselves with a very winnable one this week against the equally struggling Las Vegas Raiders.
The Raiders' defense is giving up the sixth-most fantasy points to running backs this season at 23.1 per game! Given how well Etienne has performed we should continue to stay in the flames with him and ride this hot streak. It's safe to say this may be the last week Etienne will qualify as a bargain for DFS purposes, so let's capitalize on this closing window.
Etienne hasn't been able to get going as a receiver as much as many would prefer, but now that he is getting bellcow type of work in Jacksonville it doesn't matter. Etienne was the RB9 in Week 7 and the RB7 in Week 8. As long as he continues to stay healthy he is going to be a great asset for fantasy in the second half of the season, but for DFS purposes he is likely going to continue rising in price.
Kenneth Walker III, SEA at ARI | DK: $6,200, FD: $8,300
Hercules came back to earth last Sunday as Walker rushed 18 times for just 51 yards but did find the end zone once. The Seahawks were victorious 27-13 over the New York Giants but they weren't able to do much on the ground in the game. Despite the below-average game, Walker III is performing greatly this season and has entered the Rookie of the Year conversation as he's rushed 85 times for 461 yards (5.4 AVH) while catching 9 passes for 28 yards on the surprising 5-3 Seahawks who sit at the top of their division.
Arizona's defense is in the middle of the pack in fantasy points given up to running backs this season, but they did a decent job shutting down Geno Smith and the Seattle passing game in their last meeting that the Seahawks won 19-9. It figures to be a ground-and-pound type of contest with both teams fighting for every inch and likely the needed advantage for Seattle this week as they are the better team on the ground.
Since Walker has only been starting for the Seahawks for several weeks since the Rashaad Penny injury, we still haven't seen his ceiling. We've seen some incredible runs where he displayed great vision before squirting through a hole, breaking tackles, and scooting away from a defender down the sideline for a touchdown. As Seattle is trying to win the NFC West this season it is likely going to come on the broad shoulders of Kenneth Walker.
Deon Jackson, IND at NE | DK: $5,200, FD: $5,000
Jonathan Taylor has been hobbled and was held out of practice all week for the Colts including today, which means that Deon Jackson should be in line to start at running back on Sunday. Nyheim Hines was traded to the Indianapolis Colts earlier this week for Zack Moss and the bulk of this week's carries should go to Jackson with Taylor sidelined and Moss still having to learn the offense.
Jackson was undrafted out of Duke in 2021 and wasn't known around the league until starting in Weeks 5 and 6 for the Colts this season where he has rushed 30 times for 100 yards and a TD while showing some great ability as a receiver out of the backfield with 14 catches for 108 yards. The Colts play the Patriots' defense and rank second-best against opposing fantasy running backs at just 16.1 points per game.
While the matchup will be a difficult one, Jackson should be relied upon quite heavily with Sam Ehlinger in at quarterback. Since there isn't anyone to spell Jackson or take away valuable touches from him, he likely is going to be a solid value for fantasy this week based on sheer volume alone even if it may not look pretty during the game. At such a cheap price he feels like a great RB2 or Flex play in DFS this Sunday.
Wide Receiver NFL DFS Value Plays - Week 9
Christian Kirk, JAC vs LV | DK: $5,500, FD: $6,300
Kirk had a hot start to the season but has cooled off in recent weeks with just one touchdown in the last 5 contests with 60, 11, 24, 96, and 40 yards receiving. Nonetheless, he has established himself as the No. 1 target on the Jaguars' offense and his DFS price has fallen considerably for fantasy to make him a bargain. This week the Jaguars face a struggling Raiders defense that is giving up the most fantasy points to quarterbacks at 23.4 per game and is middle of the road to wide receivers at 27.4.
Wide receiver has easily been the most difficult of the four positions to pick from for DFS as wide receivers tend to have some of the largest range of outcomes. As far as DFS values go we are only looking at WRs who are $5,500 and under on DraftKings to qualify for this column. The good news for Kirk is that he has seen a total of 61 targets over 8 games this season and when it comes to wide receivers we usually want to be chasing volume.
Kirk is averaging 14.2 yards per catch which is even more impressive being that he's played 73.9 percent of his snaps from the slot so far this season (per PFF). While it does appear he might have come back to earth a little bit over the last month, Kirk is still on pace for 70-plus receptions and over 1,000 yards with 8 TDs on the season. This week against a Raiders defense that can't stop anyone it feels like a get-right game for Kirk and hopefully the rest of the Jaguars' offense
Rondale Moore, ARI vs SEA | DK: $5,200, FD: $5,900
While the Seattle defense has gotten considerably better throughout the season, Rondale has started to become a YAC and PPR machine. He got off to a slow start to the season as he pulled his hamstring during the preseason and wasn't able to get going until Week 5. While DeAndre Hopkins back playing as the alpha No. 1 WR on the Cardinals on the outside, things have opened up for Rondale with Marquise Brown sidelined.
Rondale isn't as good of a wide receiver for fantasy when he plays on the outside. At a height of just 5-7, it doesn't benefit his skill set whatsoever. With Hopkins back in the lineup the Cardinals can put Moore back in the slot where he belongs. Last week, Rondale really to hit his stride catching 7 of his 8 targets for 92 yards and a TD. He is probably going to be better for fantasy in full PPR formats versus half, but he feels like a great bargain this week in DFS.
Per wide receivers with a minimum of 15 targets, Moore is third in the NFL in YAC. He is a fast, explosive player who can do some magical things with the ball in his hands. Now that the Cardinals' offense is starting to click with Hopkins in the lineup, Rondale feels like another solid value for fantasy this Sunday.
Josh Palmer, LAC at ATL | DK: $5,100, FD: $6,200
It's no secret the Chargers have been banged up in recent weeks with Keenan Allen continuing to battle a hamstring injury as well as Mike Williams being out for several weeks as well. In steps Josh Palmer who faces an Atlanta Falcons secondary that is giving up the second-most fantasy points to wide receivers at 38.6 points per game. The Chargers are 3-point road favorites with an Over-Under of 49.5, so Vegas is expecting them to put up plenty of points in this one.
A second-year wideout from Tennessee who was drafted by the Chargers in the 3rd Round of the 2021 NFL Draft, many including quarterback Justin Herbert had some high hopes for Palmer heading into the season. Palmer has been wildly inconsistent, but in his last game against the Broncos in Week 6 he had 12 targets and he caught 9 of them for 57 yards. In a game where the Chargers will be without their top two wideouts, it seems inevitable for Palmer to be good solely by default.
The Chargers' defense hasn't been good this year at all as it has been decimated with its share of injuries. Since the Falcons should score plenty of points on the other side this one has the potential to be a very high-scoring affair. Given all of the above factors, we can feel good about Palmer at such a cheap price for Week 9.
Tight End NFL DFS Value Plays - Week 9
Robert Tonyan, GB at DET | DK: $3,800, FD: $5,000
The tight end position has been a difficult one so far this season. The strategy of spending big early or wait till late has been a good one as Kelce and Andrews have thrived this year, but there hasn't been much else to rave about from the tight end spot. This week is no exception as we would like to be as conservative as possible at the position so that we can use our resources to load up elsewhere.
The Lions have been one of the best defenses to play against for fantasy purposes this season. As the wounded 3-5 Green Bay Packers come to town in a must-win, get-right game for their offense, Robert Tonyan has a chance to have himself a day. The Lions' defense is allowing the fifth-most fantasy points to tight ends this season at 12.8 per game.
Tonyan has been largely inconsistent this season, but he's had a total of 18 targets over the Packers' last three games. With the Packers's offense hobbling and Randall Cobb and Christian Watson as well potentially sidelined for this contest, Rodgers may need to get the tight ends involved. Tonyan at such a cheap price where we can hopefully get a 5 for 50 with a touchdown would be a very solid outcome.
Evan Engram, JAC vs LV | DK: $3,300, FD: $5,200
Engram has been a decent option for fantasy this season as he's earned a total of 45 targets with 32 receptions for 330 yards. The only thing holding him back is that he's had just 1 TD so far. Could some positive TD regression be coming for Engram the rest of the way? The Las Vegas Raiders defense is third-worst against fantasy tight ends this season giving up an average of 13.6 points per game!
Evan Engram is an athletic tight end who has the ability to make big plays. He has also been a larger feature of the Jaguars' offense in recent weeks as in the last two he has played 85 and 93 percent of the team's offensive snaps. The Jaguars are -1.5 point underdogs at home this week with an Over-Under of 48 points. Given that both teams desperately need a win could we see a high-scoring affair in this one? At a low price for a tight end, Engram feels like a decent dart throw in the hopes he can score a touchdown.
Thank you for reading my weekly article. Please send me a message on Twitter if you have any more DFS or Start/Sit questions. Best of luck this week!
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