NFL DFS Lineup Sleepers for DraftKings, FanDuel - Week 13 Value Picks Include Trevor Lawrence, David Montgomery, Garrett Wilson, Hayden Hurst

December 3, 2022

Kyle's NFL DFS sleepers for DraftKings, FanDuel and Week 13 (2022). His value picks and lineup sleepers for building winning daily fantasy football lineups.

We are nearing the final third of the NFL regular season and it has been an interesting one, to say the least. None of us saw the defending Super Bowl champs collapsing like the Rams have done (although injuries played a part) and none of us would have predicted that Geno Smith would have been a Top 7 fantasy QB on top of the Seahawks having a winning record. A big part of what makes fantasy so enjoyable year to year is it shows us just how little we know.  This week the Carolina Panthers and Arizona Cardinals are on a bye in Week 13, but there will be six teams on a bye in Week 14. Why the NFL decided to do it this way makes no sense, but that's the NFL in a nutshell, isn't it? The decision-makers don't care because they know we will all be back on our couches on Sunday tuning in to the weekly games regardless.

Last week wasn't as good as weeks past in finding values, but Garrett Wilson was an absolute gem of a find. As mentioned in a previous article, with Zach Wilson out of the way the talented rookie wide receiver has nowhere to go but up. Wilson is a total stud of a receiver and would have been the hands-down NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year had the Jets made a switch at QB earlier in the season. The good news for DFS purposes is that he remains extremely cheap for another week. Remember, you don't need a player in this article to be the RB1 or WR1 on the week, the main thing is just to find value in the market so we can use our funds to spend elsewhere. The goal is to receive the highest output (fantasy points) for the lowest input (player DFS salary). Some of whom were suggested in the previous week's article: Rachaad White (RB15), Jeff Wilson Jr. (RB24), Garrett Wilson (WR2), and David Njoku (TE8).

This article will run every week throughout the regular season. It won't include the obvious choices but instead players who appear to be undervalued in current DFS formats. If you didn't catch my Week 1 article that included some DFS tips and tricks, it can be found here. As the values currently sit, players will qualify as a value in DFS for this article if they are a quarterback in the 5k range, running backs who are 6k or less, wide receivers at 5.5k and under, and 4k or less for tight ends based on DraftKings salaries. When it comes to tournaments, stacking our quarterback with one of their pass catchers is a must and we should be looking for players with higher guaranteed floors (and consistency) to get us over the 50/50 hump in cash games. No matter which one you decide to play this week, here are some bargain players with potential in Week 13. Now let's get to those picks already!

Quarterback NFL DFS Value Plays - Week 13

Trevor Lawrence, JAC at DET | DK: $5,900, FD: $7,500

After many were doubtful of him coming off of a less-than-stellar rookie campaign, Trevor Lawrence appears to be finding his groove under new head coach Doug Pederson. In the last three weeks, Lawrence has finished as the QB12, QB8, and QB5. While he has only gone over 300 yards passing in just one game this season, Lawrence has just 6 INTs on the year and has been completing more of his passes at a higher rate. Last week against the Ravens, Lawrence was 29 of 37 for 321 yards and 3 TDs, by far his best performance of the season. Now can he stay in the flames against the Detroit Lions this week?

It's no secret that the Lions' defense has been one of the worst in the league this season and they are giving up the most fantasy points per game to opposing QBs at 24.6 per game! Now that we are into December we are at a point where the weather may impact games more than it might have in September and we must factor that into our rankings weekly. The good news is that the Lions and Jaguars will be playing indoors at Ford Field on Sunday.

This contest feels like it could be a shootout between both parties who haven't been able to stop opposing offenses very much. The Lions' offense has been getting healthier in recent weeks with D'Andre Swift and D.J. Chark both coming back and the Jaguars' offense will have to do their part to keep up in this one. The belief among many around the league is that Trevor Lawrence is turning a corner. While he isn't an elite runner at the QB position, he can make plays with his legs for fantasy purposes. Lawrence feels like a good bet in what should be another barn burner.

Jared Goff, DET vs JAC | DK: $5,300, FD: $6,800

The NFL's version of Dr. Jekyl and Mr. Hyde, Jared Goff has been pretty good at home while being terrible on the road. The good news for DFS purposes is that for the next two weeks he will be at home, including what ought to be a high-scoring affair against the Jacksonville Jaguars on Sunday. The Jags' defense is giving up the eighth-most fantasy points to opposing QBs on the season at 19.6 per game!

Goff has been getting some of his weapons back in recent weeks with Amon-Ra St. Brown, D.J. Chark, and for the first time in months, D'Andre Swift was not listed on the injury report. It's no secret that Goff has been wildly inconsistent at times, but he does have two games this season where he threw 4 TD passes, both of them at home. If you'd like to bargain shop at QB this week to save your resources elsewhere, it might be worth playing either starting QB in this game as it is expected to feature plenty of scoring.

Running Back NFL DFS Value Plays - Week 13

David Montgomery, CHI vs GB| DK: $6,200, FD: $7,000

It's MONTY SZN this week as the Bears host their rival Packers. With Khalil Herbert still out of the lineup, Monty has no real competition for touches and is a lock for 20+ opportunities in this one. He has an elite matchup here against a Packers team that has been steamrolled by opposing rushing offenses and we all watched them last week in primetime yield over 300 yards rushing to the Eagles.

The Bears don't have the same type of offensive line as Philly, but they do have an advantage up front and Montgomery exploited that matchup back in Week 2 when he went over 100 yards and had his best performance of the season. His involvement in the passing game adds to his floor, too, especially on DK with full PPR scoring. He's caught three balls in both of the last two games and should continue to be a three-down back for Chicago this week. He's a cash game lock for me.

Brian Robinson Jr., WAS @ NYG| DK: $5,300, FD: $6,600

Robinson is coming off his best game of the season as he ran for 105 yards against the Falcons while catching two passes for 20 yards and a score. Antonio Gibson's status is in jeopardy for Sunday, which means we could see Robinson get the vast majority of touches for a Washington team that wants to run the ball and impose its will on opposing defenses.

The Giants have allowed some big games to opposing backs and their defensive front is their biggest weakness on that side of the ball. Robinson has a top-5 matchup of any back on the slate this week and his price is very fair on both sites.

Brian Robinson said his friend has a “big hat” company. “If you want a big hat, let me know.” pic.twitter.com/KXm3GCJWO1

— Sam Fortier (@Sam4TR) November 27, 2022

Robinson normally handles the between-the-tackles touches while Gibson is used on the perimeter and in the passing game, but if Gibson does miss then we should see Robinson used on all three downs. Plus he wears really cool oversized hats!

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Wide Receiver NFL DFS Value Plays - Week 13

Garrett Wilson, NYJ at MIN| DK: $5,300, FD: $6,600

Wilson was a top play last week when he caught 5 passes for 95 yards and two touchdowns. He was targeted 8 times by the new Jets QB, Mike White, and displayed some excellent route running against a bad Bears' secondary which led to him being wide-open a few times. His price didn't adjust much despite his big breakout and now the Jets head to Minnesota to face a secondary that has allowed the most passing yards to opponents this season.

Wilson will most definitely be a chalky play this week, but I wouldn't be building a cash lineup without him. Mike White isn't Joe Montana, but he's good enough to keep this offense moving down the field and find open receivers, and Wilson is certainly talented enough to get open quite often.

Zay Jones, JAX at DET| DK: $4,900, FD: $6,400

Like Wilson, Jones had a huge bust-out game last week as he caught a season-high 11 passes and recorded his most receiving yards with 145. He is still officially questionable but seems to be trending in the right direction and I expect him to play.

As we already established, the Jags have an excellent matchup this week against Detroit and both Jones and Christian Kirk are really appealing plays at their price points. Jones makes a lot of sense for cash games since he's so cheap and the 24 targets combined over the last two weeks is simply something you don't see from a receiver this cheap. As long as he's in the lineup for Jacksonville, he's probably going into a bunch of my DFS lineups, too.

Tight End NFL DFS Value Plays - Week 13

Hayden Hurst, CIN vs. KC| DK: $3,500, FD: $5,300

Hurst had a really solid performance last week, catching six of nine targets for 57 yards. He hasn't found the end zone too often this season, which is one reason why his points per game isn't all that high, but his large number of catches each week has made him a valuable DFS commodity, especially because his price continues to stay below 4k.

This game with the Chiefs has a ton of appealing options and could easily be the highest-scoring game on the slate. I want as much as exposure to that game as possible and I like the idea of grabbing cheap pieces like Hurst and Skyy Moore rather than paying up for Mahomes, Higgins, or Kelce in cash formats.

Harrison Bryant, CLE @ HOU| DK: $2,700, FD: $4,700

Bryant should be the TE1 for Cleveland now that Njoku is ruled out and he's dirt cheap. The return of Deshaun Watson could elevate this Cleveland passing attack and targeting some Browns pass catchers is a good way to get different as many will look towards Nick Chubb and the running game.

Bryant is firmly in play as a punt for cash games with the salary savings he offers and I like his chances of giving us 7-10 DK points.

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