Next Gen Stats Review: 2023 Running Backs

March 3, 2024

Corbin Young provides key fantasy football updates for running backs from the 2023 season, using Next Gen data to help fantasy owners make the best lineup and waiver wire decisions.

Many know Next Gen Stats for the fastest ball carriers in the NFL, which tracks a player's top speed in miles per hour (mph) on a given play. DK Metcalf had a 73-yard touchdown score that registered 22.23 mph, with Chase Brown (22.05) and Tyreek Hill (22.01) making a reception as the only three players with plays over 22 mph. Unsurprisingly, Hill had three, and De'Von Achane registered two of the fastest ball-carrier plays inside the top 10 last season.

What's even cooler involves the Next Gen Stats for rushers, passers, and receivers. We'll focus on the advanced rushing stats for this article, and cover the other categories in the future. Two of the most relevant rushing metrics on Next Gen Stats involve rushing yards over expected per attempt and the rate of eight or more defenders in the box. Those two metrics separately and together give us a starting point to examine a player and their situation.

It helps to figure out which players rushed more or less efficiently based on how many rushing yards they gained compared to what was expected in that situation. We'll explain each metric as defined by Next Gen Stats while providing context to each metric and hypothesizing ideas that come out from the data.

Rushing Yards Over Expected Per Attempt (RYOE/Att)

Rushing yards over expected per attempt (RYOE/Att) looks at the number of yards per carry gained than expected. That might indicate a talented running back who can break and miss tackles or an efficient player. It's probably an indicator of both. Unsurprisingly, De'Von Achane ranked first in RYOE/Att, with over double that of Christian McCaffrey, as seen below.

McCaffrey's efficiency is unreal, especially since he faced eight defenders in the box over 36 percent of the time. That's the highest rate in the NFL ahead of Derrick Henry, Gus Edwards, Kareem Hunt, Khalil Herbert, and Tyler Allgeier. Jaylen Warren fits a similar mold to Achane, where he produced efficiently on limited carries. Warren finished with the highest broken plus missed tackle rate at 30 percent last season among running backs with 50 carries. That tracks with the excitement many had for him in the Steelers offense. 

Two of the more surprising names inside the top 10 in RYOE/Att involve Zack Moss and James Conner since they're not known for being relatively efficient. Conner ranked sixth in broken plus missed tackle rate, with Moss at 16th, as they often fought for extra yards than expected. Another data point that provides context involves 70 percent of Conner's yards coming after contact (No. 15) compared to Moss at 60 percent (No. 48).

Among the lowest or negative RYOE/Att, we have a mix of inefficient players or ones that might fall into the bust category. Seven out of 22 running backs averaged negative RYOE/Att with more than five rushing touchdowns. Those players include Kareem Hunt, Rachaad White, Josh Jacobs, Travis Etienne, Tony Pollard, and Kenneth Walker. That suggests most inefficient running backs struggle to score touchdowns, which makes sense. 

However, where Etienne, Pollard, and White stood out related to volume. Jacobs also fell into that bucket before the injury. That's evident in Jacobs ranking fourth in expected points per game, while White ranked ninth and Pollard and Etienne tied for 10th. Given Etienne's 11 rushing scores and White's six rushing touchdowns, they finished with positive fantasy points over expected per game. 

Eight or More Defenders in the Box

This metric from Next Gen Stats is how it sounds, where it calculates how often a rusher faces eight-plus defenders in the box. Without knowing the context of the situation, we can guess a couple of things. One is that teams might look to pass when they stack the box. Another guess is that it could be in a high-leverage situation of third or fourth down or a short-yardage opportunity. 

Nine teams passed the ball under 90 percent of the time with eight or more defenders in the box without considering the down and distance in the situation. That aligns with the guess on how teams attack opposing defenses. We'll look at the players with the highest and lowest rates to better understand their rushing advanced metrics. 

When opposing defenses stack the box with eight defenders, it's typically more difficult for teams to run the ball. We can also assume opposing defenses guessed there's a low likelihood of the running back catching the ball. As mentioned earlier, McCaffrey had the highest rate of eight defenders in the box. However, McCaffrey's elite receiving role set him apart from the group below, with the highest rate of eight defenders. That's evidenced by McCaffrey's 8.2 receiving expected points per game (No. 2) behind Kamara.

Besides McCaffrey (17.6), only Henry (7.5) and Aaron Jones (7.7) had a target share north of seven percent. Below that, we had Khalil Herbert (6.5), Conner (6.1), and Devin Singletary (6.7) posting a target share above six percent. Though we're focusing on rushing advanced metrics from Next Gen Stats, the receiving role provides context. However, the data we don't have relates to the down and distance situations since one would expect a higher rate of eight defenders if there's a short-yardage situation. 

When we flip the spreadsheet on its head and look at the lowest rate of eight defenders in the box, Kyren Williams led all running backs with 4.82 percent. Joshua Kelley and Miles Sanders had the second- and third-lowest rates. However, they also finished as two of the more inefficient rushers in RYOE/Att. 

The other running backs that round out the top 12 with the lowest rates of eight-plus defenders present a mixed group of players that garner a healthy receiving role. Six of the rushers with the lowest rate of eight defenders had a target share of eight percent or higher, four of which had a double-digit share. Though they didn't post high target shares, Achane and Jonathan Taylor possess a receiving role in their respective offenses. 

However, we again don't have context on the situations because these running backs could have been in third-down situations, where teams typically pass the ball. On first and second downs, we had eight teams with a pass rate of 55 percent or higher. Meanwhile, zero teams have a pass rate under 60 percent on third and fourth downs. 

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