NBA DFS Cap Management, Part 2: Matchup-based Approach

Last week, we discussed two methods to help manage salary caps for Daily Fantasy basketball; the Well-Rounded and Stud/Dud approaches. Both methods rely on the amount of games slated for the night. The Well-Rounded caters to heavier slates, selecting the majority of players all in the same price range of $6,000-$7,000. While the Stud/Dud method comes in handy when there are only a few games on the night's card, splitting your lineup into the big money guys that can break out, and affordable sleepers that you think will hit and exceed projection.

Today's strategy piece focuses around a matchup-based approach.

It's definitely easier to be attracted to a matchup that is lopsided, on paper at least, to get caught up in the likelihood of certain players having an easier time producing. The Spurs versus the 76ers. The Warriors hosting the Lakers. The Cavaliers visiting the Suns. All of them appear to be mouthwatering, undoubtable blowouts, and most of the time, they will be. But they're more appealing to fans of the Spurs, Warriors, and Cavaliers, more so than to Daily Fantasy players in general

You have to question how many minutes Kawhi Leonard would play against the Lakers. Is he going to see a full, usual 35-40 minutes? Or will he be lounging on the bench in the fourth quarter with a towel draped over his head, wearing his warm-up uniform, discussing tonight's dinner with Tim Duncan? You have to wonder if Stephen Curry's fresh Nikes will see the court late with ten minutes left in regulation, or if he'll be waving to his mother or planning which finger he'll wear his next championship ring on. Would Lebron James reach expectation against an Eric Bledsoe-less Phoenix team or will second string small forward Richard Jefferson see a boost in minutes towards the end of the game?

The 14-year journeyman helps bring me to my next point. It might be wiser to stray away from the aforementioned big names and keep an eye on and select their established backups, or other backups on their respective teams. This will free up cap space, allowing your lineup the luxury of owning players in likely tighter, more competitive contests. Even though they might not see a bulk of minutes, they'll likely see just enough to become valuable for their price. For example, passing up on Russell Westbrook and instead starting backup Cameron Payne against the Denver Nuggets. Payne is $3,600 on DraftKings, $7,000 cheaper than Westbrook, who could prove to be a steal if he reaches 20 fantasy points.

If you're spending money, despite having no real value, you want bang for each buck; you want to use a player who sees full minutes. The matchups I pay more attention to are those consisting of two good teams playing each other and two bad teams playing each other (anything that spells competitive). Despite the recent and continuous results, a contest between the Cavaliers and the Warriors is the dream DFS matchup, competitive and fast-paced, involving a plethora of solid players to choose from. As is the case with a matchup between the New Orleans Pelicans and the Minnesota Timberwolves; two teams at the bottom of the Western Conference that play similar basketball. They both don't play much defense, inviting plenty of scoring and stacked fantasy lines from Anthony Davis, Ryan Anderson, Andrew Wiggins, etc.

The Sacramento Kings have been the go-to for both scenarios. I'd like to consider them a good team, with all their talent, but they simply can't stop an opposing team from scoring. The Kings relinquish the most points a night in the NBA, while scoring the third most points a game. The same applies for the Houston Rockets; a team that gives up and scores the fifth most points in the NBA. You can count on both teams to consistently put the ball in the hoop, and then stepping aside to let it rain buckets on them as well. This will likely always result in a shoot-out. The bench players on both teams are as valuable as the Harden's and the Cousins'. Fast-paced games also result in tired players. So guys like Marco Belinelli and Marcus Thornton should be considered as they'll always see plenty of court time and be involved in the heavy offensive attack of both teams, while making room to splurge on more expensive players.

As I've said before, the rest is up to them. All we can do is draft, and watch.