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Dan Fornek analyzes tight ends that are must-have draft picks in 2021 fantasy football leagues. These TE options can hold down the position all season and are great values at current ADP.
In fantasy football, understanding the importance of the tight end position can provide an enormous edge when it comes to fantasy scoring. Since 2018, there have been a total of 11 tight ends that have exceeded 200 fantasy points a year. Three of them belong to Travis Kelce. Two of them belong to Darren Waller, George Kittle, and Zach Ertz. Other than that, it’s a smattering of random names that had fantasy success in that given season.
In 2020, the divide was even greater. After Kelce and Waller, only four tight ends exceeded 150 fantasy points on the season. Only 11 tight ends total were able to average double-digit points per week (minimum of 13 games played). There are two schools of thought when it comes to drafting the position in PPR leagues: either target the top guys early or just avoid the position completely. From a personal standpoint, I like to aggressively target my tight ends because of the scoring advantage they can provide.
Ultimately, there are two things you want to target when it comes to drafting the tight end position. Ideally, the player you select will be somebody who has an excellent chance at finishing in the top two on their team in targets. Like the wide receiver position, teams with strong passing attacks and bad defenses are ideal for weekly shoot-out upside. Secondly, you want to try and target tight ends that are split out wide as much (if not more) than they are attached at the line of scrimmage. Tight ends playing in the slot or outside can’t pass protect on passing plays, which elevates their routes run. Below, you will find my “must-have tight ends” for the 2021 season.
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Early-Round Options
Travis Kelce, Kansas City Chiefs: Rd 1, ADP: 8.52
Most fantasy analysts (not you zero-RB purists) have come to a consensus that the first five picks of a draft will be running backs heading into the 2021 season. However, after those five (Christian McCaffrey, Dalvin Cook, Alvin Kamara, Ezekiel Elliot, Derrick Henry), all bets are off. Fantasy gamers need to be open to the fact that Travis Kelce is a very legitimate pick starting at the 1.06 this season.
Kelce just finished his fifth consecutive season as the TE1 in PPR leagues and registered a ridiculous 312.8 points in 15 games played. Kelce finished as the sixth-highest scoring non-quarterback in fantasy last season. That total would have made him the RB4 or WR4 if he played those positions. His 20.6 fantasy points per game also ranked sixth in 2020. Kelce is durable, playing in at least 15 games in every season since 2015, and has led Kansas City in targets each season Patrick Mahomes has been under center. Mahomes is known for his prolific arm strength and connection with Tyreek Hill, but his ability to extend plays allows him to frequently target Travis Kelce when things break down.
Kelce meets both requirements for a premium tight end target in fantasy drafts: he is the primary target in an explosive offense and he can flex out to the perimeter. Don’t be afraid to hit the draft button if he is on the board in the late first of fantasy drafts this year.
Darren Waller, Las Vegas Raiders: Rd 2, ADP 22.5
Like Kelce, Darren Waller provides an exceptionally high receiving floor at the tight end position. Waller has been a top-3 tight end in PPR leagues the last two seasons, finishing with at least 221 points in PPR scoring during that stretch. Waller’s 251.9 fantasy points were good for 13th among non-QB’s last year and would have finished as the RB5 and WR10.
Fantasy players were worried about Waller’s target share heading into 2020 with the additions of first-round pick Henry Ruggs, third-round pick Bryan Edwards, and free-agent acquisition Nelson Agholor. Despite that, Waller paced Las Vegas in targets yet again, grabbing 107 of his 145 targets for 1,196 yards and nine touchdowns.
Like Kelce, grabbing Waller gives you wide receiver production at a position that lacks top-end talent later in drafts. The bonus to targeting Waller is the fact that you can grab a running back (or wide receiver if that’s your style) in the first round and still get a player that has massive upside. Waller is routinely available in the late second round and provides a high floor with a gigantic ceiling, even if the Raiders’ pass-catchers take a step this season.
Given the youth in Las Vegas’ wide receiver room and his familiarity with Derek Carr, Waller is poised to have a third straight campaign as a top tight end in fantasy football.
Mid-Round Pivots
Let’s assume that you decide to load up on running backs and wide receivers in the first three or four rounds. Nobody would blame you. However, there are still tight ends available on the board in those early rounds that are worth a shot and meet the criteria we look for at the position.
Kyle Pitts, Atlanta Falcons: Rd 5, ADP 51
Yes, the dangers of rookie tight ends are well documented in the fantasy space. When the most prolific rookie tight end season belongs to Mike Ditka in 1961, the concerns are valid. However, you should be willing to roll the dice on Kyle Pitts because he’s an athletic marvel with ridiculous college production AND finds himself in a passing attack where he can thrive.
Pitts, the rookie out of Florida, is coming off a junior season at Florida where he caught 43 targets for 770 yards and 12 touchdowns in just eight games (at age 20 no less). Following that, he measured at his Pro Day at 6’6 and 245 pounds and ran a 4.49 40-yard dash. Then he was drafted by the Atlanta Falcons with the FOURTH OVERALL PICK, giving them the freedom to trade Julio Jones.
Kyle Pitts now finds himself with top-five draft capital on a team that has a terrible defense and the ability to move him all over the offensive formation. Matt Ryan has attempted at least 600 passes each of the past three seasons. While former Tennessee Titans offensive coordinator (and current Falcons head coach) Arthur Smith is known for his ground-based offense, there is no Derrick Henry on the roster and he has shown the ability to get his playmakers the ball (see A.J. Brown).
Kyle Pitts likely won’t finish as the Falcons’ number one targeted receiver this season (that honor belongs to Calvin Ridley), but he has very little competition in the form of Russell Gage and Olamide Zaccheaus to be the WR2. With Hayden Hurst available to take on the in-line blocking role, Pitts should see a healthy amount of snaps in the slot or out wide. If you find yourself in the fifth round of your draft, he’s worth a pick to unlock the upside of your fantasy team this season.
T.J. Hockenson, Detroit Lions: Rd 5, ADP 61
Like Pitts, Hockenson finds himself on a team with very little target competition. Hockenson finished as the TE5 last season in PPR leagues, averaging 11.0 fantasy points per game. In 16 games, Hockenson was targeted 101 times, catching 67 passes for 723 yards and six touchdowns.
Heading into his third season, the former Iowa Hawkeye will be competing with D’Andre Swift, Tyrell Williams, Quintez Cephus, and rookie Amon-Ra St. Brown for targets. That isn’t exactly a murder’s row of target competition. Beyond that, the Lions moved on from Matthew Stafford this past offseason, acquiring Jared Goff from the L.A. Rams. Goff doesn’t have the arm talent of Stafford, which leads him to target his tight ends in the quick passing game. The combination of Tyler Higbee and Gerald Everett saw 149 targets in 2019 and 120 targets in 2020 with Goff at the helm, and that was with Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp as wide receivers.
Combine that with a lackluster defense, and Hockenson should be poised to take a leap in the passing game and assert himself as a top-five scoring tight end this season.
Mark Andrews, Baltimore Ravens: Rd 6, ADP 64
At first glance, the inclusion of Mark Andrews on this list doesn’t make a lot of sense. He is a tight end on a run-heavy offense with the most run-oriented quarterback in the NFL. However, Andrews once again finds himself in a draftable position because of the lack of weapons in Baltimore.
The Ravens drafted Rashod Bateman in the first round of the 2021 draft, but he will likely miss the first month recovering from groin surgery. Marquise Brown missed a month of the offseason with a hamstring injury. That leaves Sammy Watkins as the primary wide receiver, surrounded by young question marks like Miles Boykin, Devin Duvernay, Tylan Wallace, and Deon Cain. Meanwhile, Andrews has finished top-five in points per game at the tight end position each of the last two seasons.
Until the Ravens can get Bateman and Brown healthy, Andrews will likely function as Lamar Jackson’s first read and should continue to be the primary target in the red zone. That makes him very appealing in the sixth round of fantasy drafts this year.
Late-Round Dart Throws
If you decide to fade the tight end position early in drafts (or take players in the later rounds) these next targets represent tight ends that find themselves in a position to secure a top-10 finish in 2021. While they may be better served as TE2’s in your fantasy draft, they could easily develop into a weekly starter as the season progresses.
Jonnu Smith, New England Patriots: Rd 11, ADP 138
Jonnu Smith has been a name fantasy managers have targeted as a breakout tight end for years now and it just hasn’t happened. Smith had his best season in Tennessee last season, catching 41 of 65 targets for 448 yards and eight touchdowns in 14 games. Those numbers were good for TE16 last year, behind names like Dalton Schultz, Jimmy Graham, and Eric Ebron.
Smith entered free agency and was made a primary signing by the New England Patriots, inking a deal that made him the third highest-paid tight end in the NFL behind George Kittle and Travis Kelce according to spotrac.com However, fantasy gamers have hesitated to buy in to Smith because New England also gave a huge deal to Hunter Henry (7th highest-paid tight end in the league) and added Nelson Agholor and Kendrick Bourne as free agent wide receivers.
Jonnu Smith adds excellent versatility to a Patriots’ offense that is starting rookie Mac Jones. He can line up in the backfield, split out wide, and also get the ball on jet motions. That versatility will come in handy with an innovative offensive coordinator (Josh McDaniels) in red-zone situations. The Patriots have a cast of wide receivers that are solid but unremarkable, giving Smith a chance to assert himself as the lead receiving option this season, giving him the upside fantasy gamers have been waiting for.
Cole Kmet, Chicago Bears: Rd 14, ADP 171
At first glance, Cole Kmet’s rookie season was unremarkable. The Notre Dame product finished with 28 receptions on 44 targets for 243 yards and two touchdowns last season despite being a second-round pick and competing with Jimmy Graham. However, a closer glance reveals that Kmet developed nicely for the Bears and gradually became a fundamental part of their offense.
From Weeks 11-17, Kmet was on the field for a minimum of 78% of the offensive snaps in Chicago. During that time, he was targeted at least six times in four of seven games. While his statistical numbers aren’t great given that target share (149 yards and a touchdown), it showed that he had acclimated to the NFL, which is difficult for rookie tight ends. Kmet should see that role grow in his second season.
The combination of Andy Dalton and Justin Fields should rely on the second-year tight end in the passing game. Allen Robinson is the unquestioned WR1 in Chicago and most expect Darnell Mooney to take a leap in his second season. However, there is a very real possibility that Kmet emerges as a reliable short-yardage and red-zone target, which is enough to justify taking him as a flier in the late rounds if you punt the tight end position.
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