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Corey Johnson's NFL DFS prop picks for the Browns vs 49ers Monday Night Football contests. Use these Week 7 recommendations to win on Monkey Knife Fight.
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Week 7 of Monday Night Football features a matchup between the Patriots and Jets. This may not end up being an insanely entertaining game but MKF has some really user-favored props to attack! This game has an implied total of 43.5 points and a spread of 9.5 points, favoring the Patriots.
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Pick 1: Touchdown Dance
Recommended Prop Pick: James White, Robby Anderson, and Julian Edelman to Score 1.5+ Total Touchdowns
With a 9.5 point spread favoring the Patriots, White and Edelman should have multiple chances to score throughout the game, particular early while the game will likely be closer in score. White is an elite pass-catching running back and Brady looks for him early and often. White has eight, six, and nine catches in the last three games. Although White has yet to find the end zone this season, Monday night will give him the perfect opportunity to do so, as the Jets Defense has given up an average of 275 receiving yards per game this season and have not been great in the red zone.
With Josh Gordon ruled out and barely any experience at tight end, Brady will have to look Edelman's way throughout the game. Edelman only has two touchdowns this season but he has an excellent chance of scoring multiple touchdowns with such little offensive support. As for Anderson, if the Patriots go up early, as they are expected, Anderson will have to be targeted numerous times by Darnold. Anderson is by far Darnold's favorite target, and with Darnold healthy, Anderson will be able to put up a huge game and possibly a touchdown.
I recommend going with the safe 1.5+ touchdowns for 1.5x your buy-in but feel free to decrease your bet and go with the 2.5 or even 3.5 total touchdowns!
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Pick 2: Over/Under Fantasy Point Contest
Recommended Prop Pick
Julian Edelman OVER 17.5 Fantasy Points and Sam Darnold OVER 14.5 Fantasy Points
As mentioned above, I (and Vegas) think that the Patriots will get an early lead and Darnold will be forced to move the ball through the air in a comeback attempt. As a result, Darnold should be able to put up a fairly decent game in terms of fantasy points. He will likely throw a couple of intercepts to the elite Patriot defensive unit but all we need is for Darnold to throw (and/or rush) for two total touchdowns and he'll break that 14.5 point threshold more often than not.
As for Edelman, the Patriots are beat up on the offensive side of the ball and Brady will likely be looking Edelman's way numerous times. 10 catches with a touchdown or two for Edelman seems like an extremely reasonable game-- he should be able to destroy that 17.5 fantasy point threshold in the PPR format that MKF offers.
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Pick 3: Reception Collection Contest
Recommended Prop Pick
James White, Robby Anderson, and Julian Edelman to Total 22.5+ Receptions
Look familiar? Same players from the first prop pick but receptions instead of touchdowns for this prop! As much as I have preached to always lean towards the less risky bets (slow and steady profit), this 22.5 receptions for 5x your buy-in is just too good to pass up on. As mentioned, the Patriots are banged up on the offensive side, so Edelman and White will be the top two options for Brady who loves the short, quick passes. In all honesty, I could see Edelman and White getting close to that 22.5 total receptions by themselves.
Also, as mentioned above, Anderson is Darnold's favorite target and in a game where they will likely be down on the scoreboard early, Anderson should see 10+ targets easily. If he can collect six to seven of those, Edelman and White will just need to combine for 16-17 receptions.
I really love this prop and will likely be a little more aggressive with it than normal but as always, be smart! It is by no means a "lock" to hit but I sure feel really good about it.
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