RADIO
Michael Florio further explains his fantasy football draft strategy of avoiding low-ceiling players by naming high-upside wide receivers to target in the middle to late rounds of your drafts and 'safe' WRs to avoid.
If you've read my recent articles or watched the RotoBaller Youtube channel, you already know my new draft strategy for 2020. My plan is to get a safe base in the early rounds and then strictly target players that have upside. The reason is twofold: if those upside fliers don’t work out, I can drop them and keep taking fliers off the waiver wire until something sticks. And, those high upside players elevate your lineup more in a weekly basis than those ‘safe’ floor players.
Those ‘safe’ floor players that you draft in the middle or later rounds and then hold onto all year in case a player in your lineup gets hurt or to use them as a bye week replacement. But having to slide these players in for one of your starters is already making your team worse. Suddenly, your lineup’s upside is capped, and you need teams to not have a big week against you in order for you to win. At the same time, while you are using a draft pick on those players and then holding them all season. That is both a valuable draft pick that could have been used on a player with difference-making upside. The bench spots you use to stash them could be used to take shots off the waiver wire. These “safe” players may win you a week, but not a championship. Now that you know that, it is time to figure out the players that fit this strategy best.
But knowing the strategy you want to implement is just half the battle. The other half is knowing the players that best fit that strategy. That is why I am going to give you upside WRs to target and ‘safe’ ones to avoid in the middle and later rounds. You can read about QBs and RBs as well.
Editor's Note: Identify fantasy football draft busts, overvalued ADPs, and key players to avoid so you can draft with confidence this season.
High-Upside WRs in Round 6 or Later
Marquise Brown, Baltimore Ravens
Hollywood is going to be a lot of fun this year and I want him on my fantasy teams. Brown was never fully healthy at any point last year. Brown had screws put into his foot while in college that forced him to miss the combine and much of the summer with the Ravens. He had a choice to make at the start of the 2019 season, to have the screw removed from his foot or to play through it. He chose to play through it, stating that he had no burst and couldn’t push off his big toe. He claims that he was never running at full speed last year.
It also led to other injuries. He said by the time the season ended his foot was mangled. Now he has the screw out, has his full burst and speed back, and can participate with his teammates this season. Remember what a (not even healthy) Brown did to open up the season? He ran just eight routes in Week 1 but still had four catches for 147 yards and two scored. He had 159 air yards and 217 in the following two weeks. He was never really the same after those early weeks, especially as injuries set in. But we know he has blazing speed and can stretch the fields with the best of them.
He also will hardly ever get doubled as teams have to stack boxes against Lamar Jackson and that strong Ravens run game. They also have to worry about Mark Andrews. Brown is going to have some monstrous weeks. Think of him as the new DeSean Jackson. He goes off the board as the WR30 in the middle to late seventh round. The upside is a lot higher.
WR Fantasy Point Per Route Run Leaders
Michael Thomas, 0.64
AJ Brown, 0.58
Tyreek Hill, 0.55
Davante Adams, 0.51
Cooper Kupp, 0.50
Stefon Diggs, 0.50
Mike Evans, 0.50
Julio Jones, 0.50
DeAndre Hopkins, 0.49
Marquise Brown, 0.49 ?Elite company
— Michael Florio (@MichaelFFlorio) May 20, 2020
Will Fuller V, Houston Texans
Fuller just can’t stay healthy. That is always the first sentiment you hear when you bring up Fuller’s name, and it’s true. But hear me out here, what if… he does stay healthy? There are only a few players that can match the upside a player brings to your lineup whenever they step on the field. I mean, Fuller scored 53.7 PPR points in a game last season, which is the third-most ever by a WR. Not just in 2019, but ever. That upside he brings each week is a huge reason I am buying into Fuller this season, but it’s not the only one.
I also believe Fuller’s chances of hitting on a weekly basis are much higher this season than in the past because there is no DeAndre Hopkins anymore. Nuk would hog the targets in Houston, but now Fuller’s biggest comp is Brandin Cooks. Nothing against Cooks, but he isn’t Hopkins.
More targets for Fuller is a scary proposition. In his 11 career games with eight-or-more targets he has averaged 21.34 fantasy PPG on 97.3 receiving yards per game. He averaged 156 air yards per game in those weeks. Whenever Fuller is healthy he is going to be someone you want to get into your lineup. Due to his health concerns, all he costs is an eighth-round pick as the WR34. Well worth the gamble.
Marvin Jones Jr., Detroit Lions
Marvin Jones continues to get overlooked in fantasy football. If you read the QB article you know I am high on Matt Stafford. It is because they allowed him to be more aggressive and take advantage of his weapons in Kenny Golladay and Jones. But the difference is, Golladay is going off the board as the WR8 in the third round on average. Jones on the other hand only costs a late ninth-round pick, as the WR39.
In Weeks 1-9, with Stafford, Jones was the WR14 in fantasy. He had 42 catches for 535 yards and six TDs on 57 targets. Compare that to Kenny G, who had 62 targets, 35 catches, 640 yards and 7 TD. Golladay was the WR11 in that span. Jones did have a four TD game with Stafford, but he also had three games of 22+ fantasy points, including dropping a 43 burger in a week.
He was more up and down than Golladay, but you are getting similar production, at such a discounted rate. I will probably not have much of Golladay this season, but I will be gobbling up the better value in Jones. Tt his price, Jones is pure profit in the making.
Mecole Hardman, Kansas City Chiefs
This pick gets me feeling all tingly inside. Think about this – Hardman had 41 targets (an average of 2.6 per game) and he still finished with 538 rec yards and six touchdowns. Hardman averaged 1.88 yards per route ran, which ranked 32nd among all WRs with 40+ targets. We know he is a burner with game-changing speed that can take any target the distance. We also know he was viewed as raw coming out of college and was not fully utilized as a rookie.
This season, he has a chance to become a mainstay in the offense behind Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce. He will have to beat out Sammy Watkins, but that speed, in single coverage with Patty Mahomes arm… off. Watch out! And the best part? He’s going off the board in the 11th round as the WR47.
Breshad Perriman, New York Jets
Here is a player that I am definitely higher on than most. He showed down the stretch last season that he can play like a top wide out. In Weeks 13 through 17 last year, he averaged 21.2 fantasy PPG. In those five games, he averaged 101.2 receiving yards per game and scored five touchdowns. Now that was with Jameis Winston and the Bucs, which is a lot different than the Adam Gase led offense. Perriman, I believe was brought in to be the immediate Robbie Anderson replacement.
Jamison Crowder will continue to man the slot and I think Denzel Mims will play in three-wide receiver sets and is viewed as the Jets WR of the future. But this season, I am expecting Perriman to be the Jets' top target. For what it is worth, Anderson has the most targets (163), receiving yards (1,341) and touchdowns (11) from Darnold in the young QBs career. I expected Perriman to be valued as a borderline WR3 when he first signed with the Jets, but he isn’t going anywhere close to that. He is going off the board as the WR58 in round 14 of FFPC drafts. There is really no risk and all upside at that price.
Antonio Brown, Free Agent
If we are talking pure upside, there is perhaps no player worth gambling on more than AB. He is currently going off the board as the WR73 in the 17th round of FFPC drafts. But truth be told, you can often get him as late as round 19 or 20 in drafts.
The downside is he does not play a snap. The upside is a team takes a chance on him. We know he would shoot up boards if a team signed him, and my guess is he would go off the board as a WR2. It is pure upside at that point.
Quick Hits
All of these WRs go in round nine or later based on FFPC ADP.
Diontae Johnson is a popular breakout pick by many and I am onboard. He led all rookies last year in catches despite having a who’s who of bad QBs slinging him the rock. He showed the ability to get open and create separation despite playing through a hernia last year. There is a lot to like here especially with Big Ben back.
Brandin Cooks is the way to hedge the Fuller bet. He has injury concerns as well, but like Fuller is a field stretcher and should be in for an uptick in volume. If Fuller misses time, Cooks has WR1 type upside.
Darius Slayton went from unheard of to in most fantasy players lineups in a matter of weeks last season. Slayton averaged 14.26 fantasy PPG and scored seven TDs in his final nine games. He is also the Giants' best outside weapon and deep threat. He is the Giants wide receiver I want most this season.
CeeDee Lamb was viewed as the number 1 WR by many In this class and no worse than second by basically everyone. I get it, he fell into an unfortunate situation. But I think people are overreacting in the wrong direction now. Last season the Cowboys had Amari Cooper finish as the WR10, with Michael Gallup as the WR22 and Randall Cobb as the WR43. I think Lamb is more talented at this point of their careers than Cobb and think that the Cowboys offense can be one of the best in the NFL this year. Lamb goes off the board as the WR41, which I think you can argue that is his floor, rather than his ceiling.
Anthony Miller does not get the love he deserves. Whether he has Mitch Trubisky or Nick Foles throwing him the ball, both love throwing to the slot. Both did so nearly 40 percent and finished in the top five in their last full seasons (2018 for Foles). Miller will see a lot of time in the slot (so will ARob at times) and there really is no competition for targets outside of ARob and Tarik Cohen. Miller was the WR8 from Weeks 11-15. He has breakout upside and all it costs is a 12th round pick as WR52.
Jalen Reagor has speed for days and could quickly find his way into a larger than expected target and air yard share. The Eagles other wideouts are DeSean Jackson, Alshon Jeffery, J.J. Arcega-Whiteside, Marquise Goodwin and Greg Ward. We saw what happened last year with that group. Reagor was drafted in the first because he has blazing speed and can create a ton of separation. He will also be learning from DJax. He is worth the upside flier as WR50 off the board.
Lastly, I got to talk about Preston Williams. Look, I am not saying DeVante Parker and Mike Gesicki's second-half breakouts aren’t real. But through the first nine weeks it looked like Williams was the Dolphins WR1. Now all you have to pay for him is a late 12th round pick as the WR53.
‘Safe’ WRs that will Hold You Back
Julian Edelman was once a safe WR2 that you knew would put up the numbers each week to justify being in your lineup. He was like clockwork with Tom Brady. In every season since 2013 Edelman has averaged between nine and 10 targets per game and between six and seven catches per game. He averaged between 65 and 70 rec yards per game in all but one of those seasons and his yards per catch were always between 10 and 12 per catch. He never averaged over 20 fantasy PPG, but he only once dipped below 15, and that was 14.39 in 2016.
Edelman was super consistent both season-to-season and week-to-week. But, those days are likely behind him. Edelman is now 34 years old. He no longer has Brady and instead will have an unproven QB in Jarrett Stidham throwing him the ball. Perhaps he falls from being a super safe WR2, to being a safe WR3. But that just means the floor and ceiling are lower each week. At that point, I think you would be better spent chasing players that have much higher ceilings. There is no reason to feel better this season about Edelman or the Patriots passing game compared to years past. It was a fun ride, but it’s over.
Jamison Crowder was a player I was targeting in my drafts last year. This year, thanks to my philosophical change, I will now be avoiding him. It is nothing against Crowder, who can be a safe player and help fill a void in your lineup at times. But, to me, Crowder is one of those classic – can win you a week, but not a league types. He’s averaged less than 13 PPR PPG in every NFL season. He’s topped 20 fantasy points in eight of 72 career games.
It is worth noting that four of those did come last season with the Jets – but the Jets receivers room is more crowded than last year. The Jets now have Perriman, Mims, Chris Herndon, Ryan Griffin and Lev Bell out the backfield. It is also worth noting that Crowder was held to single-digits in eight of his 16 games last season, and scored less than six fantasy points six times. The floor is so low and the ceiling is simply not high enough to make up for it. I will be taking shots on players with substantial more upside in the 10th round.
Sterling Shepard is the Giants receiver I am least interested in. It’s weird to say, since Shep set a lot of career highs last season. He had a career-high in targets per game (8.3), catcher per game (5.7), air yards per game (84) and fantasy PPG (14.18). He played seven games with Golden Tate, in which Tate dominated slot usage. Tate averaged 32.7 slot routes per game, compared to just 11.7 for Shepard. That is a big issue for Shep, who was much more efficient out of the slot. He averaged 1.8 fantasy point per target from the slot, compared to just 1.4 out wide. He averaged 0.43 fantasy point per route ran and 1.98 yards per route ran from the slot. That dropped to 0.29 fantasy point per route ran and 1.16 yards per route ran when not lining up out wide.
Plus, Darius Slayton came on strong and proved to be the Giants best receiver on the outside and down the field. They will also have Evan Engram returning. We really have no sample size of the four being active, but using the clues we have seen, all points to Shepard likely being lowest on the totem pole.
More Fantasy Football Analysis
