X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

Late-Round Tight Ends Who Will Outperform Their ADP

Tight end is always a tough position to call. It has its studs but then after that, there are a lot of question marks. Antonio Losada takes a look at three tight ends that can be found late in drafts who offer a nice ROI.

Show me a tight end, and I'll show you a dice. And most probably, one with way more than six faces. Fantasy football is not new. We are not new to fantasy football neither. Everybody goes by the strategy of drafting RB/WR, RB/WR, RB/WR (ad infinitum), QB, TE, rest of the bunch. There are owners who prefer to pick a QB early. There are others who bank on multiple elite WR and get a group of average RB in the middle rounds. And then, between all different gamblers, are the vibrant minds of those who choose to pick a tight end between the second and third rounds (or even in the first one, the crazy people!)

While top tier tight ends tend to be sure things, the rest of them can be considered high-risk fliers. Nobody truly knows who is going to overperform. Each and every year different running backs or wide receivers go and put on a show in an unexpected way, sure, but there are too many players from which we can expect a certain level of performance within preset boundaries. But with tight ends, randomness is overboard.

Even with that, I'm here to defy the odds. I'm here to give you three tight ends' names that will undoubtedly, surely, and definitely give you a ROI better than anyone at the position. Bear with me.

Editor's Note: Discover RotoBaller’s top Fantasy Football Sleepers to gain an edge in your drafts. Our free who to draft tool and expert picks spotlight undervalued players, breakout candidates, and late-round gems for all league formats.

 

Greg Olsen, Carolina Panthers

ADP 12.5 - TE17

When I was preparing to write this article I found something that caught my eye. Olsen is an NFL veteran, and lately a fragile one. In both 2017 and 2018, he only played in seven and nine games respectively. I have always valued him quite high (injuries or not), and he ranked 9th in DVOA when on the field last season. What is more impressive is that he was the 14th-best TE by DYAR, which instead of a rate stat is a counting one. Even missing seven games he was able to perform to a level most TE can only dream of!

So where am I going with this? Well, if Greg Olsen can overcome the injuries that have followed him for two years now and stay healthy for a full season, he should be right at the top of your league leaderboards. More often than not, ADP doesn't lie. If he's being drafted as late as the 13th round, it is for something. Injuries are there. There is also Cam Newton and his wobbly shoulder. This would be a high-risk move indeed.

Olsen finished the year with only a 12.6% usage, but Newton has always used him a safe option. He scored four touchdowns in a down season, surpassed by only eight other tight ends, who were targeted at least 10 more times than Olsen. He could double up his numbers next year. He could easily end the season with 80 targets for around 55 receptions and more than 700 yards to go with seven touchdowns. For a tight end picked in the 13th round and ranked 12th-best at the position (around 110 expected PPR points) that's a steal (if he doubles his 2018 mark he'd end at around 160 PPR points).

 

Mark Andrews, Baltimore Ravens

ADP 13.8 - TE20

Not only is Andrews a tight end from a team that will feature a scrambling demon at the quarterback position,  a nice new running back in Mark Ingram, and that as a unit was the most run-heavy team during the second half of the last season. He's also a second-year tight end that could go either path in his development after a great rookie season.

There are a few reasons to believe in him beating his ADP expectations. Evan Engram posted 722 yards in his rookie season, 577 in his second. George Kittle 515 and then 1377 in 2018. Hunter Henry logged 478 and then 579. Normally, although second-year TE production is a little bit of a crapshoot, the ones who produce over the bar as rookies tend to sustain the production and mostly improve it during their second season and going forward.

Andrews finished his rookie campaign beating Hayden Hurst (Baltimore's first-round selection) by a mile with 552 yards on 50 targets and 34 receptions for three touchdowns. That amounted to a staggering 11.04 Yds/Tgt, only behind OJ Howard (TEs with min. 20 receptions). All in all, he finished the season as the TE17 in PPR points. If he can improve even a little on his rookie production he will become a way-under-the-radar value pick given how little attention he's receiving.

 

T.J. Hockenson, Detroit Lions

ADP 14.11 - TE22

There is a chance you find Hockenson available for free at the end of your league's draft. He's currently at the verge of dropping to a consensus Round-15 ADP spot. The risk is obvious, and the ADP shows. Even as a rookie tight end, and if the projections hold, he's expected to rack up to 45 receptions for 500 yards to go with four touchdowns. For a TE22, that is not a bad return at all, much less considering how cheaply you can acquire him.

By drafting Hockenson early not only did Detroit show their plans, but they also vastly improved at the position. Hockenson has speed and proper hands, and even with the addition of Jesse James from Pittsburgh, he should take over as the starting tight end sooner rather than later. The fact that Detroit was the team to target tight ends with the least frequency of all of the league doesn't mean this will repeat itself this season, but it surely will keep your rival owners skeptical of picking Hockenson. Don't be fooled by this.

Hockenson comes boasting a 75% catch rate at Iowa. He barely misses the ball when thrown his way, and has the ability to gain more than a few yards after the catch. Even if he's paired with James on 12 personnel, the most probable outcome is that he's used as the target with James as a pure blocker. Hockenson is also a sure-thing in short-pass attempts, which can boost his value in PPR leagues.

More ADP Values and Sleepers




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Austin Riley

Leaves Game Early on Friday With Abdominal Tightness
Kon Knueppel

Struggles in Summer League Win
Rafael Devers

Dealing With Back Inflammation
Walter Clayton Jr.

Plays Well on Friday Night
Cody Williams

Scores 21 Points in Summer League Loss
Kyle Filipowski

Leads the Way on Friday Night
Teoscar Hernández

Teoscar Hernandez Returning on Friday
Sauce Gardner

Wants to be Highest-Paid Cornerback
Rhamondre Stevenson

Heading into an Important Season
Minnesota Vikings

Josh Metellus, Vikings Have Mutual Interest in Extension
Tua Tagovailoa

2025 Could be Tua Tagovailoa's Last Season in Miami
Rashawn Slater

has "Full Confidence" a Deal Will Get Done
Byron Buxton

Returns on Friday
Isaiah Jackson

Signs Three-Year Extension
Jake Meyers

Placed on 10-Day Injured List With Calf Strain
Brandon Lowe

Placed on 10-Day Injured List With Oblique Tightness
Kodai Senga

Reinstated to Start on Friday
Alex Bregman

Officially Activated and Starting on Friday
Marvin Bagley III

Joining the Wizards
Herbert Jones

Signing Extension with Pelicans
Jacob Toppin

Returning to Hawks
Chicago Bears

Bears Extend General Manager Ryan Poles
Dalton Knecht

Avoids Serious Injury
MarShawn Lloyd

in a "Much Better Spot" Heading Into Training Camp
Javon Small

Signs Two-Way Deal
Dustin Hopkins

Browns Still Counting on Dustin Hopkins
Demarcus Robinson

Sentenced to Three Years of Probation
Jalen Nailor

In Line for WR3 Role in Minnesota
Andrew Thomas

Could Miss Start of 2025 Season
Alex Bregman

Expected to Return on Friday
Julio Rodríguez

Julio Rodriguez Won't Suit Up for Midsummer Classic
Trey Smith

Chiefs, Trey Smith Expected to Work Out Long-Term Extension
Bernhard Raimann

a Candidate for an Extension This Summer
C.J. Stroud

Could Sign Multi-Year Deal Before 2026 Season
Kyle Juszczyk

Says Christian McCaffrey Looks Healthy, Explosive
Kyren Williams

Showing Improved Explosiveness
Christian Barmore

"Dominant" this Spring
Ryan Reaves

Traded to Sharks
Vladislav Kolyachonok

Moves to Dallas
Matt Dumba

Lands in Pittsburgh
Mackie Samoskevich

Re-Signs with Panthers on One-Year Deal
Josh Manson

Inks Two-Year Extension with Avalanche
EDM

Isaac Howard Signs Three-Year, Entry-Level Contract With Oilers
Pete Crow-Armstrong

Homers Twice, Drives in Three
Brice Matthews

Joining Astros
MLB

White Sox-Guardians Postponed on Thursday
Brandon Aiyuk

Likely to Begin Season on PUP List, but Not Ruled Out for Week 1
Jameson Williams

Not in the Team's Long-Term Plans?
Tallison Teixeira

Set For His First UFC Main Event
Micah Parsons

Plans to be Present for Start of Training Camp
Derrick Lewis

Set To Headline UFC Nashville
Ikem Ekwonu

Next Up for Extension in Carolina?
Gabriel Bonfim

Looks For His Third UFC Win
Stephen Thompson

Returns At UFC Nashville
Steve Garcia

Looks To Extend His Win Streak
Calvin Kattar

In Dire Need Of Victory
Morgan Charrière

Morgan Charriere A Favorite At UFC Nashville
Nate Landwehr

Aims To Bounce Back
MMA

Austen Lane Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Vitor Petrino

Set For His Heavyweight Debut
Tuco Tokkos

Set To Open Up UFC Nashville Main Card
Junior Tafa

Set For Light-Heavyweight Bout
Alex Bregman

Will Return to Red Sox This Weekend
Chris Sale

Braves Won't Consider Trading Chris Sale
Clarke Schmidt

to Undergo Season-Ending Elbow Surgery on Friday
Jalen Williams

Signs Contract Extension With Thunder
Alijah Martin

Agrees to Two-Way Deal With Raptors
Tristan Vukcevic

Set to Return to Washington
Byron Buxton

Sitting Thursday
Anfernee Simons

Celtics Are "Actively Trying to Trade" Anfernee Simons
NBA

Alex Ducas Heading to Australia
Dominick Barlow

Inks Two-Way Deal With 76ers
Jordan McLaughlin

Spurs Re-Sign Jordan McLaughlin to One-Year Deal
Dylan Harper

Out Thursday, Expected to Play Saturday
Ronald Acuña Jr.

Ronald Acuna Jr. Homers Twice on Wednesday
Mike Trout

Homers Twice in Win Over Rangers
Jazz Chisholm Jr.

Leads Yankees to Victory
Salvador Perez

Crushes Two Homers in Win
VJ Edgecombe

Diagnosed with a Sprained Thumb
Devin Booker

Agrees to Extension with Phoenix
Walter Clayton Jr.

Leads Jazz to Summer League Win
Gary Woodland

Looking to Find Rhythm at Scottish Open
Aaron Rai

Brings Consistent Play to Scottish Open
Maverick McNealy

a Solid Value Play at Scottish Open
Aldrich Potgieter

Making Scottish Open Debut
Tom Kim

Looks to Rebound at Scottish Open
Brian Harman

a Safe Option at Scottish Open
Luke Clanton

a Sneaky Value Play at Scottish Open
Sam Burns

Looking to Stay Hot at Scottish Open
Nicolai Hojgaard

May Feel More at Home in Europe
Harry Hall

Showing Fine Form Heading to Scotland
Ryan Fox

Playing Well Since Early Spring Struggles
Max Greyserman

has Solid History at the Genesis Scottish Open
Harris English

Aims High for Scotland Next
Corey Conners

Primed for the Genesis Scottish Open
Daniel Brown

Attempts the Scottish Swing Again
Jacob Bridgeman

Needs Putter to Work at Genesis Scottish Open
Scottie Scheffler

Headlines Field at Genesis Scottish Open
Rory McIlroy

a Smart Play for Scottish Open
Adam Scott

Looking to Build on History at The Renaissance Club
NASCAR

Sepp Straka Not Likely to Find Momentum at Scottish Open
Justin Rose

Hopes Month Hiatus Helps Him Bounce Back at Scottish Open
NHL

Tyler Johnson Retires After 13 NHL Seasons
Jack McBain

Inks New Five-Year Deal with Mammoth
Cam York

Re-Signs with Flyers for Five Years
Jake Knapp

Fits the Mold for Success at The Renaissance Club
Ty Gibbs

Finishes Second at Chicago and Advances in In-Season Challenge
Alex Bowman

Defeats Bubba Wallace in In-Season Challenge, but Not Without Controversy
Alex Bowman

Bubba Wallace Wrecked by Alex Bowman Again, Putting Playoffs in Doubt
Michael McDowell

Throttle Failure Ends Michael McDowell's Chances to Win at Chicago
Austin Hill

Earns First NASCAR Cup Series Top Ten at Chicago
Tyler Reddick

Scores a Strong Third-Place Run at Chicago
Kyle Busch

Matches his Best Career Finish At Chicago on Sunday
Denny Hamlin

Fights his Way to a Top-5 Finish at Chicago
William Byron

has his Worst Weekend of the Season at Chicago
Sonny Milano

on Track to Be Ready for Training Camp
Jakub Dobes

Signs Two-Year Deal with Canadiens
NHL

Hendrix Lapierre Signs One-Year Deal with Capitals
Carson Hocevar

Should DFS Players Consider Carson Hocevar for Chicago Lineups?
Tye Kartye

Kraken Re-Sign Tye Kartye for Two Years
Ross Chastain

May be A Decent DFS Option for Chicago Lineups
Dmitri Voronkov

Signs Two-Year, $8.35 Million Extension with Blue Jackets
Ryan Preece

Should DFS Players Roster Ryan Preece at Chicago?
Austin Dillon

Is Too Great of A Risk to Add to Chicago Lineups
Zane Smith

Is A Value Play Worth Rostering At Chicago
Austin Hill

is A Favorable Value Option for Chicago DFS Lineups
Ty Dillon

Is Ty Dillon A Decent Driver to Add For NASCAR DFS At Chicago?
William Byron

Qualifying Crash Makes William Byron a Likely DFS Must-Have
Alex Bowman

Should Finish Well, but Probably Costs Too Much for Serious DFS Consideration
Joey Logano

Has Been Relatively Mediocre on Road Courses Lately
Ryan Blaney

Doesn't Really Fit Neatly into Optimal DFS Lineups
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF