Later-Round RBs with Upside and Safer RBs to Avoid

June 8, 2020

Michael Florio further explains his fantasy football draft strategy of avoiding low-ceiling players by naming high-upside RBs to target in the middle to late rounds of your drafts and 'safe' RBs to avoid.

I have a new fantasy football strategy that I will be using this season. My strategy this season is to build a safe base in the early rounds and then target upside players as those are the ones that win championships. This is not simply saying to be reckless at your drafts, but more so to take calculated risks. I broke down the strategy here, but that is just the first part! This article will take you to the next step of putting this plan into place – knowing who to go after in drafts.

But you can’t know who to target without knowing the crux of the strategy. So, here is a CliffsNotes version: Those “safe” floor players that you draft in the middle or later rounds and then hold onto all year in case a player in your lineup gets hurt or to use them as a bye week replacement. Having to slide these players in for one of your starters is already making your team worse. Suddenly, your lineup’s upside is capped, and you need teams to not have a big week against you in order for you to win. At the same time, you are using a draft pick on those players and then holding them all season. That is both a valuable draft pick that could have been used on a player with difference-making upside. The bench spots you use to stash them could be used to take shots on upside players off the waiver wire. These “safe” players may win you a week, but not a championship.

Now that you know the main idea of the strategy, it is time to figure out the players that fit best. That is exactly what I will be doing here. I will be talking about RBs with an ADP of round six or later and those that fit the ‘upside’ portion of the strategy. I will also identify RBs in that range that I view as ‘safe’.

High-Upside Running Backs in Round Six or Later

Kareem Hunt, Cleveland Browns

Hunt comes with as much upside as anyone going in the sixth round or later. He missed the first eight games of the 2019 season, but when he returned, the Cleveland offense looked very different. Hunt not only took some touches from Nick Chubb; he was just as an effective fantasy player. In those final eight weeks, Chubb averaged 12.98 PPR PPG, while Hunt averaged 12.68. Chubb still dominated the carries, seeing 18 per game to Hunt’s 5.4.

That being said, Hunt was the far superior receiving back. In the eight games they played together Hunt had 44 targets, 37 catches, 285 yards, and a score. Chubb over that span had 17 targets, 11 catches, and 117 yards. On the season Chubb had just 49 targets, 36 catches, and 278 yards. So Chubb had fewer catches, yards, and touchdowns on five more targets through 16 games, compared to Hunt’s eight. In those final eight weeks, Hunt was RB17 (Chubb was RB15). On the year, he was RB25. He is a Chubb injury from seeing all the work on a team that projects to run the ball a lot. That means, he is an injury away from being a top-10 back? Top five? The upside is immense. Hunt is a great target at RB30 in FFPC drafts.

Derrius Guice, Washington

Guice had a ton of hype coming into the league, but unfortunately he has not been able to stay on the field. We did see Guice on the NFL field for the first time last season and he was effective before more injuries derailed his season again. He averaged 11.48 fantasy PPG on just 9.8 touches per game. He averaged 5.8 yards per carry. He averaged 1.17 fantasy points per touch, which ranked 10th among all RBs with a minimum of 40 touches.

His competition for touches is a 35-year-old Adrian Peterson, Bryce Love, and Antonio Gibson, both of whom will be making their NFL debuts this season, and Peyton Barber and J.D. McKissic, who are just guys. If Guice can stay healthy he has the talent and opportunity to be a league-winning RB. Better yet, he only costs you a mid-seventh round pick as the RB34 in FFPC leagues.

Tevin Coleman, San Francisco 49ers

Coleman was a back that I wasn’t that excited to draft last year. And I bet there are many that were and now are viewing him as an afterthought. I mean, this is Raheem Mostert’s backfield now, right? I am not so sure. Theoretically, yes, Mostert is coming in as the lead back. But with the 49ers, that doesn’t mean a whole lot.

Last season the Niners had five different RBs finish a week as their top-scoring fantasy RB. It was a revolving door all year, and it stopped on Mostert at the end. Only three times last year did a Niners back play over 60 percent of the snaps. Last season, Coleman and Matt Breida tied for the team lead, having four games each with 15+ touches. Mostert did so three times. Coleman was the only Niners back with multiple 20-touch games, as he did so twice, Mostert did so just once.

As you can see, Kyle Shanahan and the Niners have no issues rotating their backs. Shanahan also has no issues getting production out of his backs. I want whoever is starting here. The only difference is you have to use a fifth-round pick on Mostert, as the RB24. For Coleman the cost is just a ninth-round pick at RB42. I also am fine taking late-round fliers on Jerick McKinnon and JaMycal Hasty, the backs behind Coleman and Mostert on the depth chart.

Matt Breida, Miami Dolphins

Breida was one of those revolving door RBs in San Fran last season. Now, he will be playing for a team whose 37-year-old QB led the team in rushing last year. That may seem like a negative move to some. But I am really excited about the opportunity Breida could receive. He will have to compete with Jordan Howard for touches. I expect Howard to be the early-down hammer and Breida to be used as a change of pace runner and dominate work in the passing game.

Over the last two seasons, Breida has averaged 0.83 fantasy points per touch compared to Howard’s 0.83. Breida has elite breakaway speed too. In fact, he has reached the highest max speed of any ball carriers in each of the last two seasons. With an improved offensive line in Miami and with a team that should still be playing from behind. I think Breida has the ceiling to outlive his ADP of RB39 in the ninth round.

Other RBs to Watch

There are a lot of RBs that I think can be used a lot more than we think. These RBs all have a chance to quickly outproduce their ADP, with some potentially being actual difference makers. All of these RBs go in round 14 or later, with the lone exception being Zack Moss. Moss will compete with Devin Singletary. The belief is that Moss will operate in the Frank Gore role, meaning he will be the short yard and early-down back. There’s also been talk of him competing with Singletary for early-down work. He’s worth a gamble in the 11th round.

Joshua Kelley can be the thunder to Austin Ekeler’s lightning. I expect he will be used to split carries with Ekeler, while Ekeler dominates passing game work. Additionally, he could find his way into a goal-line role. Going in the 15th round, he is easily worth taking a flier on.

Anthony McFarland Jr.showed throughout college that he could both force missed tackles and pick up yards after contact. He is playing behind James Conner, who has been very injury-riddled in recent seasons. He is one injury away from becoming the Steelers lead back.

Antonio Gibson is an experimental back, but going in round 14, he is a worthy experiment in fantasy. If Guice cannot stay healthy, there will be lots of work to go around and the big-bodied Gibson could be in for a larger role than we expected, especially near the goal line.

Chris Thompson may get overlooked by some, but he is very much so on my radar. Thompson was brought in to be the passing downs back for new Jags OC Jay Gruden. Thompson has had 35 catches in each of the last five seasons with Gruden. It’s worth noting that Thompson has played 16 games just once in that span, and has not played in more than 11 the last three. Yet, he still saw that volume. He is super cheap as well.

No QB throws to RBs more than Philip Rivers. And Nyheim Hines remains the top passing down back there. I expect Jonathan Taylor to have a big season and even be more used in the passing game than many expect. But, Hines should still be the third-down back and used in the two-minute drill.

Ryquell Armstead may not be useful as long as Leonard Fournette and Thompson remain healthy, but there is a chance Fournette is dealt. If so, Armstead becomes the cheapest lead back on the market. It is worth a late-round flier.

There are also the elite handcuffs. These are the backs that do not have a lead role, but if the back in front of them goes down they can quickly blossom into an RB1. There are not many of them, but my favorites are: Tony Pollard, Latavius Murray, Alexander Mattison, Chase Edmonds, Darrynton Evans, Giovani Bernard, and Duke Johnson. These backs are not worth stashing all season, but they are worthy of late-round shots in best ball and be ready to jump on them off the waiver wire.

‘Safe’ RBs to Avoid

Sony Michel/James White, New England Patriots

The Patriots backs may be the cover boys for being a ‘safe’ RB. Last season Sony Michel topped 20 fantasy points twice and never scored 25. He topped 10 seven times. You may be looking at that and thinking that Michel is consistent or has a safe floor. But know that other than the two games he topped 20 fantasy points, he never reached 14 in another game all year.

James White exploded for 37.7 fantasy points in a game last season and did not top 20 in another week all year. He only three times topped 15 fantasy points. Plus, both the Patriots backs no longer have Tom Brady, and instead will have unproven second-year QB Jarrett Stidham controlling the offense. Brady threw to RBs the second most in the NFL last year so that greatly hurts White. Both of these backs may be able to give you around 10 fantasy points per week, but you shouldn’t expect more. And that is why it is best to let someone else draft them. They are going back-to-back as the RB37 and 38 in the eighth round, meaning that you are likely drafting them as bench options. Rather than holding onto these two all season and hoping for 10-15 fantasy points those couple of weeks you may need to use them and take upside shots.

Marlon Mack, Indianapolis Colts

Mack was an underrated fantasy asset last year but this season I want no part of him. Last year Mack averaged 12.95 fantasy PPG on 18.6 touches per game. Despite touching the ball nearly 20 times per game, Mack never finished as a top-five RB and finished just one week as a top-10 fantasy back. He scored 20+ fantasy points just once and that was in a backfield where he was the lead dawg.

The Colts traded up in the second round to select Jonathan Taylor, who is expected to be involved immediately. In fact, I think Taylor runs away with the job. But even if he doesn’t, Mack has to split time with Taylor and have Nyheim Hines steal passing down work. There wasn’t a whole lot of upside, but at least there was a safe floor last year. Now, there are the same upside concerns and that safe floor is no longer there since his floor is being vanquished to the bench. Hard pass for me.

Tarik Cohen, Chicago Bears

Cohen finished as a top-15 scoring RB just once last year. He topped 10 fantasy points but never reached 20 at any point during the season. Cohen scored single-digit fantasy points eight times last year. Three times he scored less than five. The issue I have with Cohen is so much of his production depends on game script. Of those eight games where he was held to single-digit fantasy points, he had five targets or less in seven of them. In the other game he had six targets. In the eight games where he had 10+ fantasy points, he had seven or more targets in six of them.

When the Bears are trailing and have to pass more, Cohen gets more involved. But, those performances are harder to gauge than you many expect. Additionally, even if you can successfully pick the games where Cohen will be used more, if we are talking of a floor of 10 points, and a ceiling of less than 20… is it worth holding him all year? I don’t think so.

Devonta Freeman, FA

Freeman is still being drafted and I understand why. He is a big name and a formerly great fantasy option. He finished 2015 as the RB1. But that was now five seasons ago. He does not have a team and is reportedly asking for a lot of money. There is a chance he does not suit up this season. There is a chance he signs somewhere as a backup. I get that he does not cost anything more than a later round pick, but often times fantasy players become enamored by a name. To me, you can better use a pick on some of the upside RBs listed above.

If you have any questions, make sure to reach out on Twitter, @MichaelFFlorio.

More Fantasy Football Analysis