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Kyle Bishop's 10 Bold Predictions for 2019

Kyle Bishop continues RotoBaller's 2019 Bold Predictions series with 10 outside-the-box calls for the 2019 fantasy baseball season.

2018 was a season to forget for yours truly, both in terms of fantasy performance and hit rate on bold predictions. In the first three years as a participant in this feature, I connected on three per article, with a few others in the realm of respectable. Last year? An 0-fer, and most of them were impressively lousy.

Does that mean I plan to be any less audacious as a result? Hardly. That would defeat the purpose of the exercise. Besides, regression is inevitable! Right? Right?!

We're just gonna have to wait and see. But the wait to actually hear those predictions? It ends right...about...meow.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

Domingo German is a top-40 starting pitcher.

German wasn't even supposed to open the season in the majors, but now that both Luis Severino and CC Sabathia are expected to open the season on the injured list, he's a flier worth taking late in drafts. The 26-year-old posted an ugly 5.57 ERA in 14 starts as a rookie last season but boasted a SIERA nearly two runs lower at 3.68.

Powering that metric was an impressive 18.4 K-BB%, which would've ranked 16th among starters if he had thrown enough innings to qualify. He'll need to do a better job of limiting the long ball, but German has elite whiff-inducing ability (his 15 percent swinging strike rate was top-10 among all pitchers with at least 80 innings) and now has the opportunity to show it off.

 

Adam Frazier is a top-12 second baseman.

I've been snagging a bunch of shares of Frazier, now that he's finally going to play every day. He's amassed nearly 1,000 plate appearances over three seasons as a backup with the Pirates and produced a .280 average thanks to an above-average contact ability.

He's got enough pop and speed to get to double digits in both HR and SB and is the team's most logical candidate to hit leadoff.

 

Hunter Renfroe hits 40 home runs.

I've been lowkey touting Renfroe as the next Khris Davis since last summer, so I ain't gonna stop now. His overall numbers from last season are depressed by a slow start and lack of playing time (more on that in a bit), but over his final 220 plate appearances, Renfroe popped 18 bombs.

The surge was keyed by an improved barrel rate paired with a drop in strikeouts. The Padres' outfield remains crowded, and Renfroe might have to split time with Franmil Reyes for a bit (both deserve to start), but how long do you really expect Wil Myers to stay healthy out there?

 

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is not a top-12 third baseman.

Speaking of staying healthy, of course Vladito had to get hurt right before this article got published. I'm keeping this one in, though, because the majority of the reactions I've seen to the news so far don't suggest that the extremely expectant acquisition cost is likely to drop much.

The hype is real, and we all understand that the kid's raw talent is undeniable. But oblique strains can really waylay a season, and even if it doesn't linger, this injury could be all the excuse Toronto needs to delay his debut even further. Health aside, we've yet to see Guerrero play a single second in the majors, and third base is absolutely stacked. That's a lot of risk to take on with a fourth-round pick, and the bet here is that it backfires.

 

Blake Snell’s ERA more than doubles.

Basically, anyone would agree that Snell isn't going to repeat his incredible Cy Young campaign (21 wins, 1.89 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 221 strikeouts). Anytime you see an ERA that begins with a 1, regression is a safe assumption, no matter how talented the pitcher. The question, then, is how far you revise that figure upward. Most projections are pegging Snell for an ERA around 3.00.

This prediction puts him within shouting distance of 4.00. Where last season represented 99th-percentile luck on batted balls (.241 BABIP) and stranding runners (88.0 LOB%), this season will tend toward the opposite extreme, leading to Snell's still sometimes spotty control (9.1 BB%, 57.4 F-Strike%) being more of an obstacle.

 

Billy Hamilton and Adalberto Mondesi combine for 120 stolen bases…and a .280 OBP.

The Royals are going to be bad, and they're going to run wild. It didn't feel bold enough to predict 60 steals for either the Hamburglar or The Artist Formerly Known As Raul, or that Mondesi (the player with the single widest range of outcomes in the game) would flop.

So I threw all of those predictions into one Frankenstein's monster. Kansas City has few alternatives to either player, so barring injury, they should continue to play every day even if they hit as terribly as I expect.

 

Madison Bumgarner finishes outside the top-60 starting pitchers.

Trevor Bauer's near-Cy Young season may have broken my streak of correctly predicting a big starting pitcher bust in this space, but to paraphrase Meat Loaf, three outta four ain't bad. This year will see MadBum follow in the footsteps of Felix Hernandez --the once-reliable stud who falls off a cliff earlier than expected.

After averaging 220 innings from 2014-16, the lefty has totaled just 230 frames since. He's seen his K-BB% tumble from 22 percent to 12 percent over the last three seasons and lost several inches of drop on his formerly fearsome curve. Additionally, the Giants are going to be terrible again.

 

Kirby Yates leads the league in saves.

The addition of a splitter to his repertoire helped Yates get his vulnerability to the long ball under control last season, and it led to a career year. With Brad Hand dealt away to Cleveland at last season's deadline, Yates assumed the closer role and hasn't looked back.

He is one of just a handful of ninth-inning arms with a firm grasp on the gig, and his 29.5 K-BB% ranks fifth among all relievers with at least 110 innings over the past two seasons.

 

The best hitter named Justin isn’t Justin Upton, Justin Turner, or Justin Smoak – it’s Justin Bour.

With a 428 ADP, Justin Bour isn't even being picked in the majority of fantasy drafts this spring. Am I really saying he'll be better than a perennial top-20 outfielder, a guy who's hit .318/.411/.524 the last two years, or another guy who is top-20 in homers over that same span? You bet I am, pal.

Bour had a .902 OPS, 25 homers, and 83 RBI in just 108 games with Miami in 2017 before injuries cut his season short. His poor showing last season has turned him into a complete fantasy afterthought, but as of now, he's projected to bat cleanup for the Angels, behind Upton and Mike Trout.

 

Kenta Maeda is the Dodgers’ most valuable starting pitcher.

There's a ton of talent in LA's rotation, but virtually all of it carries significant question marks. Clayton Kershaw's body may be betraying him yet again. Rich Hill is 39 and 80% blister. Hyun-Jin Ryu has made 39 starts over the past four seasons. Ross Stripling and Walker Buehler have to prove they can repeat 2018 performances, with larger workloads.

Enter Maeda, who has pitched great despite being bounced between the rotation and bullpen the past two seasons. The Dodgers still have depth, but this year they won't have enough to keep giving Maeda the short end of the stick. He'll get to 30 starts, and they'll be mostly good to great.

More 2019 Fantasy Baseball Advice




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REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Aaron Jones Sr.

Injures Hamstring During Sunday Night Football
Darren Waller

Not Expected to Play in Week 3
Garrett Crochet

Punches Out 12 in Win
Cole Ragans

to Return on Wednesday
Jameson Williams

Records Long Touchdown in Week 2, Still Limited to Downfield Role?
George Kirby

Strikes Out 14 in Win
Jayden Daniels

Considered "Day-to-Day" with Knee Injury
Carlos Estévez

Carlos Estevez Exits with Back Tightness
Jonathan Taylor

Tops 200 Yards From Scrimmage in Week 2 Win
Joe Burrow

Could Miss Three Months if he Requires Toe Surgery
Davante Adams

Headlines Rams Receiving Corps Sunday
Wan'Dale Robinson

Explodes for 142 Yards, Touchdown in Overtime Thriller
Joe Flacco

Browns Not Considering Benching Joe Flacco After Week 2
Quentin Grimes

Still Not Close to a New Contract Agreement
Lamar Jackson

Throws for Four Touchdowns in Week 2 Win
James Cook

Scores Two Touchdowns in Rout of Jets
Joel Embiid

"Looking Slender, Spry and in Positive Spirits"
Rome Odunze

Scores Twice in Loss
Ja'Marr Chase

Snags 14 Receptions, Finds End Zone in Week 2
Russell Wilson

Throws for 450 Yards, Three Touchdowns in Loss
Jared Goff

Throws Five Touchdowns
Amon-Ra St. Brown

Scores Three Touchdowns
Joe Burrow

Suffers Turf Toe and Torn Ligaments in Win
Malik Nabers

Explodes for Two Touchdowns in Overtime Thriller
Joe Burrow

Seen with Boot and Crutches Postgame
Ty Gibbs

Has Arguably his Best Career Drive, but Only Finishes 10th
Chase Elliott

Despite Crashing Out at Bristol, Chase Elliott Advances to Round of 12
Austin Dillon

Misses Round of 12 After Extremely Mediocre Bristol Run
Shane Van Gisbergen

Shane van Gisbergen Fails to Advance to Round of 12
Josh Berry

Finishes Last in All Three Round of 16 Races to Fail to Advance
Justin Fields

Diagnosed With Concussion Sunday
Tyrod Taylor

Justin Fields Evaluated for Concussion, Tyrod Taylor Enters Game
Luis Arraez

Takes a Seat on Sunday With Head Injury
Adolis García

Adolis Garcia Activated, Starting on Sunday
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Ryan Williams Explodes In Return To Field
CFB

Drew Allar Plays Mediocre Game In Blowout Win
CFB

LaNorris Sellers Exits Game In Blowout Loss
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DJ Lagway Tosses Five Interceptions In Loss
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Garrett Nussmeier Plays Game Manager in Saturday's Win
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CJ Carr Remains Poised In Narrow Loss
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John Mateer Leads Oklahoma In Rout
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Arch Manning Struggles Against UTEP
CFB

Jeremiah Smith Impresses In Win
Bryan Woo

Records Career-High 13 Strikeouts
Max Muncy

Exits Early on Saturday
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Sam Leavitt Shines As Arizona State Rebounds From Week 2 Loss
Salvador Perez

Reaches 300 Home Runs, 1,000 RBI
Jose Altuve

Exits Early With Foot Discomfort
Trey Yesavage

Heading to Big Leagues
Will Smith

Placed on 10-Day Injured List
Ivan Demidov

Turning Heads in Rookie Camp
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Calvin de Haan Signs With Swedish Team
Samuel Girard

Skates With Non-Contact Jersey
Mackenzie Blackwood

Dealing With Injury Ahead of Training Camp
Spencer Knight

Signs Three-Year Extension With Blackhawks
Chris Buescher

May have Another Solid Run at Bristol
Corey Perry

Out 6-8 Weeks Following Surgery
Kyle Busch

Should DFS Managers Roster Kyle Busch at Bristol?
Ricky Stenhouse Jr

Is Ricky Stenhouse Jr. Too Risky to Consider Rostering at Bristol?
Michael McDowell

Could be A Solid Value Option For Bristol DFS Lineups
Chase Elliott

Probably Won't Factor in for Bristol Win
NASCAR

Bubba Wallace Not as Strong at Bristol as Other Short Tracks
Alex Bowman

Needs to Win to Make Round of 12
Ross Chastain

has Never Led at Bristol but Has Been Pretty Consistent
Austin Dillon

Richmond Speed Unlikely to Carry Over to Bristol
Josh Berry

Might Run Well at Bristol, but Almost Certainly Won't Win to Advance
Justin Haley

Bristol One of Justin Haley's Few Recent Bright Spots
Ryan Preece

Seems Slower on Concrete Than on Asphalt
NASCAR

Legacy Motor Club's Short-Track Speed Will Likely Hold John H. Nemechek Back
Erik Jones

Definitely Faster This Year, but Short Tracks Still a Liability
Daniel Suarez

Despite Poor Qualifying Run, Daniel Suarez Might Not Be a Great Choice
Noah Gragson

Unlikely to Be Fast at Bristol but Still Might Be Worth Considering for DFS
Tarik Skubal

Avoids Serious Injury, Expected to Make Next Start
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Austin Simmons Listed As Game-Time Decision Against Arkansas
CFB

Nico Iamaleava Struggles In Fourth Straight Loss
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen

Dealing With a "Tweak"
BUF

Alexandar Georgiev Joins Sabres on One-Year Deal
Corey Perry

Injured During Pre-Camp Skate
Tanner Bibee

Fans 10 in Two-Hit Shutout
Zach Neto

Dealing With Wrist Soreness
Masyn Winn

Shut Down for Rest of Season
Tarik Skubal

to Undergo Imaging on Saturday
Tyler Soderstrom

Scratched on Friday With Groin Tightness
Tarik Skubal

Exits with Side Tightness
CFB

Antonio Williams Out Against Georgia Tech
Ketel Marte

Scratched From Friday's Lineup
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CJ Bailey Flashes Again in Win Over Wake Forest
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Jaxson Moi a Game-Time Decision for Tennessee on Saturday
Jean Silva

A Favorite At Noche UFC 3
Kyle Tucker

"Unlikely" to Return When Eligible on Tuesday
Diego Lopes

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Rob Font

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David Martinez

Set For Noche UFC 3 Co-Main Event
Rafa Garcia

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Jared Gordon

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
Dustin Stoltzfus

Looks To Return To The Win Column
Kelvin Gastelum

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Diego Ferreira

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
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Looks To Extend His Win Streak
Quang Le

Set For Noche UFC 3 Main Card Opener
Santiago Luna

Set For His Debut At Noche UFC 3
Malcolm Brogdon

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David Sanders Jr. Won't Play Against Georgia
Landry Shamet

Staying with the Knicks
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Dylan Edwards Slated to Return on Friday
Adam Lowry

Aims for Early-Season Return
Charles Oliveira

Not Eyeing Retirement
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Ryan Williams Expected to Play Against Wisconsin
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Billy Edwards Jr. Unlikely to Play on Saturday
P.J. Washington

Officially Signs Contract Extension
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David Sanders Jr. Questionable to Make Debut Against Georgia
Lauri Markkanen

Big at Both Ends as Finland Books Place in EuroBasket Semis
Luka Dončić

Luka Doncic Notches 39 Points in Losing Effort
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Cam Reddish Expected to Move to Europe
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Trey Lyles Joins Real Madrid
Charles Bassey

Signs Exhibit 10 Deal With Hawks
Sacramento Kings

Terence Davis Waived by Kings
Matthew Knies

Ready for Bigger Role With Maple Leafs
Jack Eichel

Unbothered by Lack of Extension
Sidney Crosby

Not Thinking About Leaving Pittsburgh
SJ

Michael Misa Signs Entry-Level Contract With Sharks
Rutger McGroarty

Nursing an Injury
Cameron Champ

the Ultimate Wild Card at Procore
Cameron Young

Looks to Extend Momentum in Napa
Davis Thompson

Searching for a Spark at Procore
Sahith Theegala

Looking to Reignite Form at Procore
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Aims for Another Strong Showing at Procore
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Brings Ball-Striking Upside to Napa
Seamus Power

Looking to Overcome Poor Course History at Procore
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Hoping to Find Form in Napa
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Reportedly on the Trade Block
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Helps Greece Reach Semis at EuroBasket
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Finishes Tied For 15 at Wyndham Championship
Bud Cauley

Finishes Tied for 33rd at BMW Championship
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Finishes Tied for Seventh at Tour Championship
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Finishes Tied for 25th at Tour Championship
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Finishes Tied for 19th at Tour Championship
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Ben Griffin

Finishes Tied for 10th at Tour Championship
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Finishes Tied for Second at Tour Championship
Gary Woodland

Could Hang Around at Procore Championship
Karl Vilips

Ready for Napa Valley This Weekend
Taylor Montgomery

Heating Up at the Right Time
Jackson Koivun

May Be a Little Rusty at Procore Championship
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Looking to Rise Up at Napa Valley
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Re-Signs With Bulls for Four Years
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Joins Informal Skate
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Back at 100 Percent
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Cleared for Action
Mathew Barzal

Good to Go for Season Opener
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Signs Seven-Year Extension
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Talen Horton-Tucker Joins Reigning EuroLeague Champions
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on Knicks' Radar
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