Key Mid-Round Fantasy Baseball Draft Targets - Expert Picks Using EDV (Expected Draft Values)

March 23, 2025

Nick Mariano's key middle-round fantasy baseball sleepers, draft targets for 2025. He uses Expected Draft Values (EDV) to identify his favorite mid-round picks.

Baseball's floodgates are getting ready to open and we're here to help you command the waves with another year of the FSWA-award-nominated Expected Draft Values (EDV) series, where we look at historical data to identify overvalued and undervalued players of all types. This aims to help you strategize your draft plan by highlighting skill specializations such as power, speed, power+speed, batting average+power, and more.

The middle rounds see many drafters sitting with a comfortable foundation but it's easy to feel good after five rounds. These mid-round picks will help us separate from the pack and forge an empire. We will incorporate ADP, utilize our Expected Draft Values (EDV), and identify strong buys with my Cutter Projections against their ADP's expected return.

Due to factors such as name recognition, last year's surface stats, your fantasy platform's default rank, or viral social posts, ADPs often fall short of perfect science. We'll now show you great spots to strike as we analyze top picks using Expected Draft Values. Our goal is to identify players who will return a substantially positive value based on their aggregate ADP, their Expected Draft Value (i.e., the average stat line typically produced at that ADP), and their projection.

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How Expected Draft Values (EDV) Help You Win

Expected Draft Values (EDV) try to provide concrete answers to those who say, "Player X is a great value at that ADP."

We've taken historical data and come up with a metric that reliably shows stat lines along the ADP totem pole, with players falling into seven cohorts:

1) HR+BA+SB
2) HR+BA
3) SB+HR
4) SB+BA
5) HR
6) SB
7) BA

We know players don't fall neatly into one bucket of production, but we can read between the lines and apply the appropriate context. What does it take to be a good speed threat around pick 95? An average-speed asset near pick 110? EDV is not a definitive practice, just as projections are imperfect, but it'll sharpen your draft tools. And yes, runs and RBI returns are incorporated as well.

You can read more about EDV in this Intro To Expected Draft Values article, which was nominated for FSWA's Best Research Article award.

Summary of Top Mid-Round EDV Targets

Key Mid-Round EDV Players to Target

Brenton Doyle (ADP: 69) – EDV Cohort & Score: HR+SB, +24

Doyle broke out last year with 23 home runs, 30 stolen bases, and a .260 batting average over 149 games. He’d shown tools as a rookie in 2023 (10 HRs, 22 SBs), but a .203 average and 35 percent strikeout rate tanked his fantasy appeal.

He trimmed the K rate by 10 percentage points and tapped into more power with Coors at his back. His HR home/road splits were about even, but his average was over 100 points higher at altitude. You know the deal by now. EDV only needs 38 HR+SB at this point and CUTTER projects him for over 50, with ATC at 48.

Seiya Suzuki (ADP: 74) – EDV Cohort & Score: HR+SB, +30

Suzuki’s age-30 season could be massive. He’s yet to play in over 140 games but has hit over .280 in back-to-back seasons with growing exit velocities and 16 SBs last year after only six in ‘23. Focusing on the batter's box as the designated hitter could pay dividends.

2025 is the year Seiya Suzuki truly breaks out.

He was stellar in 2024, but there’s still more to come.

With him set to be the primary DH, here’s how he hit in that role last season:

59 G
.298/.385/.461
140 wRC+

We may see his full potential in ‘25.pic.twitter.com/g3dphgK1fJ

— The Wrigley Wire (@TheWrigleyWire) March 17, 2025

If Suzuki gets over 150 games then CUTTER has 26 HRs, 17 SBs, and a .277 average with 171 R+RBI, with every aspect beating the EDV demands. Having Kyle Tucker around only helps!

Lawrence Butler (ADP: 77) – EDV Cohort & Score: HR+SB, +30

Butler slogged through a .582 OPS in 42 games back in 2023 (4 HRs, 0 SBs) and opened 2024 with similar struggles through June in part-time duty. A switch flipped in July with a more compact and controlled swing, leading to a .302 average (.943 OPS) with 20 HRs and 14 SBs with massive improvements against non-fastballs.

Still 24 and growing, CUTTER projects Butler for 31 HRs and 23 SBs against the 24/14 EDV mark. A glowing buy if you believe!

Yanier Diaz (ADP: 84) – EDV Cohort & Score: BA, +25

Only seven qualified hitters bested Diaz’s .299 batting average last season and none of them were catchers. EDV is position-agnostic but we can apply context and greater appreciate his standing in an era of lesser AVGs.

Some think the 16 HRs simply aren’t enough but recall he hit 23 HRs in just 104 games in ‘23. CUTTER projects 19 HRs, 155 R+RBI, and a .290 average, making him one of the best C values on the board.

Mark Vientos (ADP: 92) – EDV Cohort & Score: HR, +22

Vientos overcame a 30 percent strikeout rate by improving his barrel rate and overall launch angle sweet spot rate to crush 27 HRs in only 111 games.

He’s far from an established player but that kind of potential with Juan Soto joining the team helps form the CUTTER projections of 34 HRs and 178 R+RBI. EDV says power bats here need only hit 32 longballs with 158 R+RBI.

Mike Trout (ADP: 88) - EDV Cohort & Score: HR+SB, +43

Christian Yelich (ADP: 97) – EDV Cohort & Score: BA+HR+SB, +39

Just a couple of 33-year-olds who were once headliner first-round picks! Believers will love this discount.

Even under duress, Yelich hit .315 with 11 HRs while going 21-for-22 on steal attempts in 73 games. Not even half of a season, yet the speed was playing, and his .294 xBA was its highest since 2019. Yelich underwent a microdiscectomy to clear out his back that manager Pat Murphy said has been ailing him for the “last four or five years.”

He’s already homered three times in 25 spring at-bats and looks comfortable, but there’s no projecting wear and tear on a surgically repaired back. CUTTER projects 142 games with 20 HRs and 30 SBs next to a .280 AVG, requiring only 37 HR+SB and 134 R+RBI to meet value.

Trout hasn’t played over 140 games since 2016, failing to top 40 in two of the last four seasons. Last season saw him tear his left meniscus twice. They debated moving him into a corner outfield slot before 2022 but the star made a case to stay in CF…until this year. Yet even just 29 games provided 10 HRs and six steals – the latter matching his combined total from the previous four seasons.

He only played 119 games in ‘22 yet bashed 40 HRs. EDV needs him to hit about .250 with 36 HR+SB and roughly 150 R+RBI. That’s about what most projection systems have him hitting in 100 games. What if you get 130 or more with the move to RF? Those with safe foundations should consider this isolated risk.

Matt McLain (ADP: 122) – EDV Cohort & Score: HR+SB, +41

Once again, injury risk is tougher on utilizing projections but can still illustrate a buy/sell opportunity. McLain had cartilage and labrum damage in his left shoulder that required surgery, but the cushy home park and rookie production hint at a massive ceiling. What if he's stronger than before?

Matt McLain's Max EV in 2023 was 109.9 mph.

He hit one 112.1 mph today. pic.twitter.com/taC4IsfJ7U

— Eric Cross (@EricCrossMLB) March 18, 2025

The 25-year-old hit .290 with 16 HRs and 14 SBs in just 89 games in ‘23 after logging a 1.154 OPS in 40 Triple-A games. There may be early rust but anything approaching a 20/20 season with an average above .235 would be a good buy past pick 100, let alone near 122.

Steven Kwan (ADP: 124) – EDV Cohort & Score: BA+SB, +51

What comes to mind when considering Kwan? Probably some speed, a good average, and minimal power. But his first 95 games resulted in 13 HRs, nine steals, and a .325/.383/.480  triple slash.

His power faded down the stretch and an eventual IL stint for mid-back inflammation has been floated as the culprit. His full-season line became less remarkable as a result, but hitting around .290 with even 27 HR+SB would make value at pick 124.

Dylan Crews (ADP: 127) – EDV Cohort & Score: SB, +49

This writer can’t help but wonder where Crews would be going if James Wood wasn’t getting D.C.’s ascending star spotlight. The 23-year-old hit 13 HRs with 25 SBs and a .270 average over 100 Triple-A contests before being promoted.

Despite a poor .218 AVG with a woeful .253 BABIP (regularly over .310 in the minors), he still parlayed 132 plate appearances into 12 stolen bases and three home runs. If most of that SB aggression holds then his supporters are in for a roaring 2025 campaign. Better batted-ball luck should provide more SB opportunities. Let’s see what 2023’s No. 2 overall draft pick can do!

Jasson Dominguez (ADP: 129) – EDV Cohort & Score: HR+SB, +29

Dominguez is another polarizing youngster whom projections split the difference with. Some of you may feel like he’s approaching 30 with how long his name has been in the headlines but he just turned 22! I know, the power he's flashed looks more mature.

#Yankees in Clearwater this afternoon:

- Jasson Domínguez had three hits, all 105+ mph exit velo
- Cody Bellinger, Ben Rice, Jazz Chisholm & Pablo Reyes all homered. Rice's HR was 110.3 mph off the bat.
- Marcus Stroman threw three scoreless innings with 3 K, 1 H, 2 BB

— Max Goodman (@MaxTGoodman) March 19, 2025

Learning left field could be a hurdle, but Dominguez’s heavily-documented pedigree and performance in the minors could blow this ADP out of the water. As with most of these guys, you probably don't want a ton of them as your bedrock but gathering calculated upside with EDV-endorsed picks can vault you to the top!

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