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Steve Janik recommends betting picks for the KBO slate on 6/9/2020. He breaks down each team's roster and suggests the top picks on moneylines, totals, and runlines.
On Sunday, we finally tailed NC to a RL win for the first time in what feels like the entire season. Then KT decided to sit their DH who had been hitting .380 on the year, so not only were they without several starters due to injury, they only had one or two regular producers in the lineup, which flubbed that team total. It wasn't one of my better weeks, but I still went 8-8 from a record perspective. And now a new week brings new opportunities!
- Sunday, June 7: 1-1
- 2020 KBO Season: 51-23 (69%)
I can't stress it enough that if you're reading my analysis to make the best decision for you and not just blindly tail. If you don't feel comfortable with one of my picks, why would you take it? For new and old readers, just assume that every pick is one unit. Not only is this league volatile, but the game of baseball is incredibly volatile. Bankroll management is key.
Today, I'll be bringing you my KBO analysis, advice, and best bets for games on Tuesday, June 9th starting at 4:00 am EST. If you haven’t already, check out www.mykbostats.com; it’s is a fantastic one-stop-shop for us in America to get our KBO fix. You can also check out our KBO DFS lineup picks article after this one. Also, feel free to hit me up on Twitter @RotoStevieJ to talk shop or chew me out if a pick loses.
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Hanwha Eagles at Lotte Giants (-177)
O/U: 9.5
Probable Pitchers
Hanwha: Warwick Saupold (2-3, 3.07 ERA)
Lotte: Adrian Sampson (0-2, 9.39 ERA)
What a mess this Hanwha team is right now. 14-straight losses forced their manager to resign, and on Monday they demoted 10 players off the active roster and replaced them with 10 guys from the Future's League (link tweet). To pour it on, Jared Hoying (foot) is day-to-day so the lineup in this one should be interesting.
It's too bad Warwick Saupold can't get much help behind him. The steadiest arm the Eagles have, Sapuold hasn't really elevated himself to the complete game shutout he threw on Opening Day against SK. He hasn't allowed more than four runs in a start yet but has been touched up for 21 hits across his last two outings. The 11 K% will likely improve and he's only allowed one home run in five starts. If anyone can keep Hanwha competitive on a per-game basis, it's Saupold.
Lotte was able to sweep a beaten up KT Wiz team to close out last week and now they get the worst team in the entire league. The offense wasn't great but got the job done against KT, outscoring them 12-6 in three games. Dae-Ho Lee drove in four himself, while the rest of the lineup provided back up. They average around 4.5 runs per game and hit .264 as hosts.
Adrian Sampson has had a very rough go-at-it since joining the Giants May 28. He's been under inning/pitch counts so far but it hasn't mattered as he's allowed eight runs over 7.2 innings and walked or given up a hit to 16 of the 39 batters he faced. He'll get a nice matchup to pace himself against the new-look Eagles team. He wasn't too good in America, but he's surely better than he's put out so far.
This might seem like a no brainer but the under is the play here. The first three times these teams played, a total never went above nine and now Hanwha is essentially a new team, while Lotte doesn't exactly have a pushover matchup against Saupold. I'm not going to overthink this one. **I got this one early, so some books have a lot of juice tied to the under 9.5 now but I like this down to 9**
Pick: Under 9.5 (-116, Fanduel Sportsbook)
Kia Tigers (-150) at KT Wiz
O/U: 10.5
Probable Pitchers
Kia: Hyeon-jong Yang (4-2, 4.22 ERA)
KT: Hyeong-jun So (4-1, 5.34 ERA)
The Kia Tigers followed up a sweep of the Lotte Giants by getting swept on the road at Doosan. Scoring 18 runs at home against Lotte compared to the six they scored on the road at Doosan, tells a small story. The Tigers average almost three runs less on that road than they do at home. However, they did just trade for third baseman Ji-hyuk Ryu from Doosan to start Tuesday, and the 26-year-old was hitting .417 with a homer in 24 at-bats before coming over. He'll compliment guys like Preston Tucker and Sun-bin Kim quite well. The Tigers hit are hitting right-handers at a .351 clip this year, second only behind NC.
Hyun-jong Yang is a 32-year-old lefty who has been running through KBO lineups since 2007. After going 16-8 with a 2.29 ERA last year, he's off to another strong start. His 1.25 WHIP is inflated because of a road start against this Wiz team May 28 where he allowed six runs on 11 hits but did not give up a home run. That is sandwiched between two starts where he allowed no runs and one run, so he does have potential to dominate still.
KT gets back star outfielder Baek-ho Kang from injury Tuesday. The Wiz will welcome the 20-year-old back with open arms following being sweep at the hands of Lotte, marking their seventh loss in 10 games. It's no surprise that their bats have gone a little quiet over the last few days, averaging just 4.5 runs in the past six, compared to the six they average to start the season. Mel Rojas Jr. was tearing the cover the ball before the Lotte series, but now that he'll have some backup, this offense should go back to being feared, especially at home where they put up 6.8 runs a game.
The Wiz will bring Hyeong-jun So to the rubber Tuesday, and he 18-year-old has had a bumpy start but composed himself against Doosan his last time out, shutting them out over seven innings. He hasn't struck out more than two batters in any of his five starts and his 1.43 WHIP isn't great. Four of his starts have come at home and opponents are hitting .299 against him there. There's clearly potential here, but at 18, it's tough to gauge which side of him we'll see.
I'm not quite ready to back the Wiz straight up yet until their pitching proves it's safe, but I like this lineup a lot (when healthy). Yang gives Kia the clear pitching advantage here but he's a little more susceptible on the road. KT is deadly at home with a matchup against a lefty, but Kia's track record against righty's also speaks for itself here.
Pick: Over 10.5 (-105, FoxBet)
SK Wyverns at LG Twins (-315)
O/U: 9.5
Probable Pitchers
SK: Geun-wook Lee (1-1, 4.63 ERA)
LG: Casey Kelly (2-1, 6.12 ERA)
The SK Wyverns took the recent Samsung series at home but now they go back to traveling, which is where they've struggled thus far going 3-11 straight up. They're hitting just .245 and average 4.4 runs as visitors which is slightly better than their home numbers, but still in the bottom half of the league. Dong-min Han is still out for the foreseeable future, and while Jamie Romak has been better, his consistency is troublesome. Guys like Tae-hyeok Nam and Eui-yoon Jung havent been very good run producers despite hitting in the top half of the lineup.
Righty Geun-wook Lee will make his third career start with the other two coming earlier this season. The 25-year-old naturally got shelled by NC his last time out but did hold Doosan to one run over 5.1 innings May 28. He's given up 10 hits through his two starts, but allowed just one his two prior relief appearances. His .286 BABIP against is a little low but he'll get a tough test facing a lefty-heavy LG lineup.
The Twins have just two wins in their last six games, dropping series' against Samsung and Kiwoom. They still find themselves in third place but this SK series is a good spot for LG. You can't talk about this lineup without mentioning Roberto Ramos' 12 home runs and 27 RBI. The lefty is absolutely mashing the ball and he won't be in the KBO for very long at this pace. Veteran Hyun-soo Kim continues to produce, meanwhile Eun-seong Chae should return to the starting lineup after dealing with a minor injury. The Twins hit .297 at home and average 5.6 runs per game as hosts.
Casey Kelly has had a tough start when you look at his numbers. However, he's been pretty boom or bust over his five starts. In three outings, he's allowed four or more runs, but in the other two he's shutout Hanwha and Kiwoom. His last effort he gave up eight to Samsung here at home, but that was the most he had ever given up in any of his 33 previous KBO starts. His ERA is through the roof, but his 3.47 FIP says otherwise. He might not punch out 10 a game like he did against the Eagles, but he'll keep the ball in the yard.
This is a wonderful spot for LG to get a series started off on the right foot. Kelly is yearning for some consistency and this team has seen it from him in the past. He should have no issues getting backup at the plate too, thanks to a favorable matchup for a left-handed heavy batting order going against a young, inexperienced righty.
Pick: LG -1.5 (-140, Fanduel Sportsbook)
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