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Outfielder Josh Naylor is a fantasy baseball sleeper and undervalued draft target for the 2021 MLB season. Mike Kurland examines Naylor's fantasy value at his current ADP.
People often forget that Josh Naylor was a first-round pick. He hasn't even been bad in the minors. His plate discipline has been a strength all throughout. He only struck out over 16.8% once as a minor leaguer and that was in his first run at Double-A. He posted a 20.6% strikeout rate that season.
Fast forward to his first cup of coffee in 2019 and we saw a 22.9% strikeout rate in his first taste of the MLB. He followed that up with just a 11.5% strikeout rate in 2020. Essentially, he has a period of adapting and once he does, the contact comes with it.
However, starting in 2018 it wasn't just empty batting average or empty plate discipline as he added some power to his game. He put up 17 home runs that year in Double-A. Naylor followed that up with 18 home runs over two stops in 2019 but just one in 2020. Unfortunately, the power is not a sure thing but the plate discipline seems to be and as of now he is currently expected to hit atop the Indians lineup.
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Opening Up
The plate discipline should lead to better outcomes in terms of batting average. His expected batting average (of xBA) was .278. This was 31 points higher than the actual batting average of .247. So right there we can tell he got unlucky. Also what played to his misfortune is the .274 BABIP. The BABIP has only been under .300 one time at any level prior to 2020 and that was in A+ in 2016. Essentially, he is due for positive regression.
The contact rates even in 2019 were above average and they improved and the 93.4% Z-Contact% is elite. It is up there with the best of them. The sample is small but given the profile, even if he regressed to 2019, it is better than league average. This came with elite SwStr% of 6.6%. The swing-and-miss will not be a factor here. Naylor even sustains this high contact rate while chasing at an above-average rate. With the O-Swing sitting at about 34%.
Even though the contact rates are very encouring, there is something else that really caught my eye when it came to Josh Naylor. The most intriguing part of the move to the Indians is with the trade came a change in mechanics.
Getting the hips opened up more should help the power production. Not to mention, everything trended up towards the end of the season. This could in part be attributed to this change in mechanics. Everything from wOBA, xwOBA and SLG% to Sweet Spot% and hard-hit rate all showed positive trends.
Here are a few examples:
You get the idea. They all seem to be trending in the right direction.
2021 Outlook
With an ADP of 439.02 since January 1, 2021, this feels like a little risk and high reward pick in deeper mixed leagues or AL Only formats. He should be someone on the watch list in your shallower leagues as well. Although the ceiling is not high, the floor has the potential to be and those players often get overlooked.
He will give you some power but the strength is the potential to provide good batting average late in drafts and someone who isn't empty batting average late is a plus. The Indians have little reason not to give him full run this year and see what they have in him. The playing time is there, as well as an interesting skill set and maybe there is some power yet to be tapped into. Only time will tell, but the fact that there is a path to all of this suggests he is worth taking shot on.
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