Jauan Jennings Fantasy Football Outlook - Was His Big Game Legit or a Fluke?

September 25, 2024

Should I start Jauan Jennings for fantasy football Week 4? He had a huge week, was it legit or a fluke? Read Jauan Jennings' 2024 fantasy football outlook.

San Francisco 49ers wide receiver Jauan Jennings (yes, him) had the biggest week of any receiver in football so far this year in Week 3 against the Los Angeles Rams. Jennings put up astronomically high numbers, catching 11 of 12 targets for 175 yards and three touchdowns.

Jennings scored 46.50 PPR fantasy points. It was a stellar effort and quite a shocking display of dominance. Jennings wasn't someone anyone thought would put up a performance like this, but he somehow completely outshined fellow 49ers wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk in what was thought to be Aiyuk's "get-right game."

Jennings had an amazing day, but will he repeat these performances? What's his fantasy outlook like for the rest of the season? Is he legitimately that good or was his game a fluke? Let's dive in.

Why Did Jauan Jennings Have a Huge Game? 

There are two major reasons, but the biggest one is that the Rams defense is horrible. It's difficult to put into words how bad it's been. The Rams are allowing 9.4 yards per pass attempt. Every time an opposing QB throws the ball, they're averaging nearly a first down. It's historically bad.

No team since 2003 has allowed more than nine yards per pass attempt for a season. It may never happen again, but the Rams have been shredded through the air by everyone.

Cardinals WR Marvin Harrison Jr. caught one pass for four yards in Week 1, then put up 4/130/2 against the Rams. Lions WR Jameson Williams also dominated them.

Marvin Harrison Jr. - All 8 targets from Week 2 vs the LA Rams pic.twitter.com/d7Xj1CaDO2

— Kyle Lindemann (@LuckIsMadeFF) September 16, 2024

We are witnessing an unprecedented stretch of complete ineptitude by the Rams pass defense. The tape shows ridiculously busted coverages everywhere on the field. The Rams defense as a whole is putrid, and it's a miracle they're able to win games at all.

Here is a look at defensive passing yards allowed vs. rushing yards allowed.

The #Steelers are an elite defense.

The #Colts and #Rams, on the other hand, cannot stop anything. The #Ravens can stop the run, but not the pass.#NFL pic.twitter.com/sHrN3wBDTi

— Brad Congelio 🏈📊🧑‍💻 (@BradCongelio) September 23, 2024

While the community tends to heap lavish praise on players who have dominant performances, when multiple players have the biggest games of their careers in stark contrast to their historical production, the defense has to bear much of the responsibility. It's difficult to evaluate player skill based on performances like these.

Will Jauan Jennings Continue to Dominate? 

It's unlikely. One-hit wonder games do happen, and they tend to come against the worst defenses, naturally. The 49ers were without WR Deebo Samuel Sr. and TE George Kittle against the Rams, and Aiyuk hasn't hit his stride after missing much of training camp and practice.

Jennings deserves credit for his performance, but there's not much reason to believe he's a superstar who's been lying dormant for three years, and that his first 100-yard receiving game is the new norm. The 49ers didn't make a huge mistake in their evaluations. Samuel and Aiyuk are still better receivers than Jennings.

The 49ers wasting this Jauan Jennings masterclass is criminal pic.twitter.com/Ew4Bl2qgKb

— Wigar 🚬 (@CigarCurry) September 24, 2024

The tape lines up with the statistics on the Rams' horrific pass defense efficiency. Jennings catches passes on busted coverage after busted coverage, often being left wide open on basic routes and facing little resistance. Jennings and QB Brock Purdy enjoyed a nice game of backyard football against a pee wee squad posing as an NFL defense.

Jennings did make some nice plays. The Rams DBs' ability to contest catches was sorely lacking, though. It's not like Jennings is a bad player, but it would be a mistake to think he's a breakout superstar set for a WR1 season.

What Will The Rest of Jauan Jennings' Season Look Like? 

Jennings could be an acceptable starter in fantasy while Deebo, Kittle, and RB Christian McCaffrey remain sidelined. However, when even one of them is on the field, Jennings' path to relevance is much tougher.

McCaffrey and Kittle are likely Hall of Famers who demand significant targets, and Samuel has been a focal point of the 49ers offense for years. San Francisco is also a run-heavy team under Kyle Shanahan, and even with McCaffrey missing time, RB Jordan Mason has 71 touches over the first three games.

Or maybe it's because the 49ers use heavy personnel and tight splits more than anyone else, and that adds numbers to the box. This resulted in an 18-yard run. But, sure, let's just say the guy who threw for over 4200 yards and 9.7 YPA is why teams stack the box. Rams ran… https://t.co/ni2Za4kdR0 pic.twitter.com/Ck9ENmxlid

— JonnydelsFA (@jonnydels) September 24, 2024

Though Purdy threw for 4,280 yards in 2023, that number is misleading. The 49ers are not a pass-first team. Purdy ranked 20th in pass attempts in the NFL last year, and the 49ers ranked third in run play percentage. It helps that Purdy is second in yards per pass attempt this year, though.

That being said, there is simply not enough volume to go around. Jennings will still be behind Samuel, Aiyuk, Kittle, and McCaffrey (if he even plays this season) in target priority in the 49ers offense. Jennings likely will return to being irrelevant soon.

Brian Baldinger on Jauan Jennings:

"He's always been dependable. It always seemed like he was that third or fourth option, which everybody needs. But maybe, you can watch that game and go, maybe they paid the wrong guy. Maybe that's the guy that should be their go to guy, just… pic.twitter.com/sLKDGWJ5qP

— Coach Yac 🗣 (@Coach_Yac) September 24, 2024

It can be tough for managers to not get swept up in the hype, but every season we see breakout performances that aren't repeated, and it's a regular occurrence to see players have huge games when opportunity smiles, then slide back into irrelevance quickly. Remember Blake Jarwin? Exactly.

Jennings' performance would be more interesting if he had higher draft capital or less target competition. But Lions WR Jameson Williams torched the Rams just two weeks ago only to put up the monster (not really) stat line of one catch for nine yards and zero touchdowns against the Arizona Cardinals in Week 3.

Should I Pick Up Or Start Jauan Jennings In Week 4? 

All in all, it's hard to trust a third-string receiver -- who's normally fifth in target priority -- on a team with an elite offensive coordinator -- whose only target competition was a rusty receiver who missed most of training camp -- in a game against the worst pass defense of all time -- to be completely overlooked by a top-tier NFL team.

He's not better than Samuel, Aiyuk, Kittle, or even McCaffrey in the passing game. Aiyuk's performance is an aberration and he should return to his elite play given time (unless he's given up after getting his contract? Seems unlikely). Jennings is a fine pickup for now, but a "too good to be true" fantasy team savior.

Target him with your waiver-wire pickups if you're barren at receiver and in a position where you need at least one win, if waivers are barren in your league, or in a deep league. Kittle's return and Aiyuk's return to elite play may leave Jennings without much to show, though.

He's worth a speculative start if you have holes in your roster.

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