James Cook - 2023 Fantasy Football Breakout Candidate

August 11, 2023

Fantasy football analysis for running back James Cook. Is the second-year Buffalo Bills RB a 2023 fantasy football breakout candidate? Jackson Sparks provide an outlook and analysis.

Buffalo Bills running back James Cook was selected at the end of the second round in the 2022 NFL Draft. He immediately became an exciting prospect in fantasy football given his draft capital, receiving skills, and landing spot. However, the former Georgia Bulldog wasn't a productive fantasy running back as a rookie while playing second-fiddle to Devin Singletary.

With Singletary now gone and Cook entering his sophomore campaign, he could be set for a breakout season in 2023. Finding value at running back after the early rounds is key to fantasy football success, so he's worth analyzing as a potential sleeper.

How did Cook perform in 2022, what is his 2023 fantasy outlook, and when should you take him in preseason drafts? Let's get into it.

James Cook's 2022 Rookie Season Review

Needless to say, Cook's NFL career started as poorly as it possibly could. On his first carry in the 2022 season opener, he lost a fumble -- and then proceeded to log zero touches after the second quarter. His first game yielded negative 1.8 fantasy points.

However, the Buffalo coaching staff seemingly didn't hold it against him and gave him 11 attempts the following week. Still, he wasn't a fantasy-viable RB option, even in deep leagues. He would remain just off the fantasy radar for most of the season but began to show signs of life in Week 11 against the Cleveland Browns, rushing 11 times for 86 yards. It marked his first weekly finish inside the top 30 PPR running backs but he followed it up with a four-touch, 16-yard game.

Cook posted his first top-15 finish in Week 13 with 14 carries for 64 yards and six receptions for 41 yards. However, there was such a low percentage of fantasy managers that trusted him enough to use him in their lineups by that point.

The highlight of his rookie campaign came in Week 16 against the lowly Chicago Bears as Cook totaled 108 yards and a touchdown on just 11 carries and one reception. Again, very few fantasy managers likely benefited from his boom week because of his previous usage.

Ultimately, Cook showed signs of excellence and was an efficient runner at 5.8 yards per clip, but he never carved out a consistent role in the high-powered Bills' offense led by Josh Allen.

James Cook's Advanced Stats and Metrics

Glancing at Cook's overall stats will only help us so much, but diving into his advanced stats and metrics via PlayerProfiler.com will give us a better picture of his rookie campaign and what could potentially come in 2023. As shown below, Cook ranked outside the top 40 RBs in most opportunity and productivity metrics and he didn't qualify for advanced receiving metrics.

James Cook Advanced Stats and Metrics

However, his 5.3 true yards per carry (2nd among RBs), 6.3 yards per touch (3rd), and 12.1% breakaway run rate (1st) metrics jump off the screen. He also performed above the mean in juke rate, breakaway runs, yards created per touch, and fantasy points per opportunity, which are all juicy indicators for fantasy success.

James Cook Advanced Stats and Metrics

It's important not to overreact to some of his impressive metrics given the small sample size; he had just 112 total touches. The key is he was an effective offensive weapon when called upon, which is something to work with heading into 2023.

James Cook 2023 Fantasy Outlook

Cooks' role should be significantly expanded in 2023. However, with Damien Harris and Latavius Murray on the roster, he's not going to be a bell cow back with a ton of red zone and goal-line carries. However, he should command the vast majority of two-minute offense and third-down snaps, especially after Nyheim Hines suffered a season-ending knee injury in camp. Cook should also get a share of the early down rushing attempts, but his college profile was built on his receiving skills and he should get the opportunity to flash them in 2023.

All that said, Cook won't be a mega-breakout candidate with top-five positional upside, but he could catch enough passes and produce enough explosive plays to be a mid-range RB2. Devin Singletary, who most analysts would likely agree is merely a replacement-level NFL running back, posted an RB23 overall season in PPR leagues last season. He logged 178 carries, caught 32 of his 58 targets, and scored six touchdowns on the year.

If Cook maintained his efficiency from last year, Singletary's workload would yield him 1,032 rushing yards, four rushing touchdowns, 36 receptions, 309 receiving yards, and about one receiving score. That output would yield 200.1 PPR fantasy points -- good for last year's RB20 finish. However, we can assume his rushing efficiency will decline with more attempts, but he should make up for that with increased passing game usage. Buffalo continues to be without a real volume WR2 and Dalton Kincaid is likely to take time to develop, so Cook could have one of the highest target shares among RBs.

Ultimately, his floor should be in the high-end RB3 range, but a high touchdown-rate season could put him around the RB13-15 range. It's worth noting he could see one of the lowest shares of carries inside the 10-yard-line among notable fantasy RBs, so he'll have to be ultra-efficient and explosive.

When Should He be Drafted for 2023 Fantasy Football?

Based on multiple sources of ADP data, Cook is going off the board between the RB28 and RB35 spots. At this point in the draft, targeting running backs with pass-catching chops in great offenses is the key to hitting on mid-round RBs. All the "can't-miss" fantasy RBs are already off the board by this point, so players with real paths to upside should be the focus.

Cook should be firmly drafted before the likes of A.J. Dillon, Antonio Gibson, Samaje Perine, and perhaps even Rachaad White. While those are all attractive zero-RB targets, their upsides are limited by offenses that are likely to struggle in 2023. There are a handful of offenses that we "know" are going to be elite -- and the Bills unit that scored 27.7 points per game in 2022 is one of them. Cook should play a major role in that success this year.

In standard and half-PPR leagues, the decision to draft Cook becomes more dicey due to his limited early-down role. But in the modern NFL without many high-touch running backs, he has a real path to becoming a "set it and forget" fantasy RB as soon as this year.

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