How NFL Free Agency will Impact 2023 Fantasy Football

February 18, 2023

Michael F. Florio breaks down the 2023 free agent classes at QB, RB, WR, and TE. He goes over the impact free agency will likely have on fantasy football draft strategies.

Free agency along with trades shook up the NFL as we had never seen before the last offseason. I am not sure we will reach that level of chaos, but this offseason will certainly provide fireworks. And it all gets started on March 15.

We may see some trades made before then and we will certainly see some afterward. There are sure to be players that everyone says get overpaid – it is very well likely that it will be at receiver again, just like everyone said with Christian Kirk. He proved to be worth the money, but that will not stop people from making the same claims about someone else a year later. Receiver, as of now, is the weakest of the four main fantasy positions (QB, RB, WR, TE). There is talent to be had at quarterback and tight end, while the running back class is absolutely stacked.

Plus, the free agency class may not be complete just yet. There are plenty of players that will be cut as cap casualties as teams try to free up some money. And no, these are not just ham and eggers or anything like that. There will be some big names, some names that have been early-round picks in fantasy for years, that get cut. It is going to shake up the entire NFL! I will include those that I think are cut candidates after the free agent class at each position.

Quarterback

Free Agents: Derek Carr, Lamar Jackson, Geno Smith, Daniel Jones, Jimmy Garoppolo, Jacoby Brissett, Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold

Secondary Option Free Agents: Taylor Heinicke, Andy Dalton, Teddy Bridgewater, Gardner Minshew, Mike White, Cooper Rush, Drew Lock, Joe Flacco

Potential Cap Casualties: Jameis Winston, Ryan Tannehill, Matt Ryan, Carson Wentz, Marcus Mariota, Mitch Trubisky

There is a load of talent available on the market for QBs this season. The issue is the top ones are all expected to return to their team. Lamar Jackson will almost certainly be hit with the franchise tag and potentially traded before he is allowed to just walk, but him changing teams is very much still in play.

Seattle and Geno Smith both seem inclined to keep that relationship going. Daniel Jones is less of a lock, but his remaining with the Giants is still the most likely of possible outcomes. Then things get interesting. Derek Carr and Jimmy Garoppolo are certain to be on new teams next season.

Then there is a long list of veterans that are available and that list is sure to grow. Many will end up settling for backup jobs, but we could see teams sign multiple of these names and let them battle it out in camp. Add in that Aaron Rodgers remains a huge trade candidate and we care about another QB jumble this offseason.

Running Backs

Free Agents: Tony Pollard, Josh Jacobs, Saquon Barkley, Miles Sanders, David Montgomery, Kareem Hunt, Devin Singletary, Damien Harris, Jamaal Williams, Jerick McKinnon, Rashaad Penny, James Robinson, Jeff Wilson Jr., Raheem Mostert, D’Onta Foreman

Secondary Option Free Agents: Alexander Mattison, JaMycal Hasty, Latavius Murray, Samaje Perine, D’Ernest Johnson, Mark Ingram II, Rex Burkhead, Boston Scott, Kenyan Drake, Dontrell Hilliard, Ronald Jones, Darrel Williams

Potential Cap Casualties: Dalvin Cook, Aaron Jones, Joe Mixon, Leonard Fournette, Gus Edwards

This year's free-agent running back class is amazing. It is the best one I can remember from my time as a football fan. Not only are there multiple high-end RB1s hitting the market, but there is so much depth. Josh Jacobs and Saquon Barkley were top five running backs last season – both are also franchise tag candidates if they don’t work out a deal with their current teams.

But there are a number of backs that could see themselves changing teams and potentially landing a starting gig. Tony Pollard seems like a lock unless the Cowboys franchise him – and if they do, do they let Ezekiel Elliott walk? There are already starting backs like Miles Sanders and David Montgomery – but both could find themselves in worse situations next season. There’s a bunch of backs that have been reliable fantasy options such as Devin Singletary, Damien Harris, and Kareem Hunt, who have shown they could handle a backfield to himself, and last year’s rushing touchdown leader Jamaal Williams.

And I haven’t even mentioned the many sleepers – you know the backs that we wish would get a starting role one day. There is simply so much talent available at the position. On top of that, there is a deep draft class at the position that is about to enter the league. What I am trying to say is the position is going to look very different next year than it did last year.

Especially if any of those cap casualty names above are cut. With so much talent available, we are going to see teams bring in multiple backs. Some backfields will be easier to figure out than others, but it seems to me that there are going to be many that will be tough to figure out. If that is the case, it will lead to there being a bunch of value in the middle to late rounds of drafts and on the waiver wire.

It is very early to start thinking of fantasy drafts next season, but let's be real, you already have. But either be ready to draft one of the few elite backs that come without questions in the first round, or be ready to load up on other positions early and backs in the middle and late rounds.

Wide Receiver

Free Agents: D.J. Chark, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Allen Lazard, Jakobi Meyers, Jarvis Landry, Nelson Agholor, Mecole Hardman, Parris Campbell, Darius Slayton, Marvin Jones, Julio Jones, Sterling Shepard

Secondary Option Free Agents: Trent Sherfield, Richie James, N’Keal Harry, T.Y. Hilton, Sammy Watkins, Randall Cobb, Marquise Goodwin

Potential Cap Casualties: DeAndre Hopkins (likely traded), Keenan Allen, Michael Thomas (likely traded), Tyler Boyd, Adam Thielen, Robert Woods, Kenny Golladay

As great as the running back class is, the wide receiver group of free agents is… well, lacking. The top receivers of the class are D.J. Chark, JuJu Smith-Schuster, and Jakobi Meyers. All three seem likely to get more money than many would expect, and this year's Christian Kirk – the player that everyone is going to say was a big overpay – will come from that trio.

However, there could be an influx of veteran talent added as cap casualties or available on the trade market. Either way, there is a strong chance we see at least a couple of those veterans changing teams. While there are not a lot of big names currently available on the free agent market, there may be some that end up getting an offense and QB bump, which would increase fantasy value.

There mostly is depth picks available. Oh, and if you were hoping for a loaded draft class like we have had for seemingly years now, nope. There is talent available there, but not like in past years. That too will lead to receiver-needy teams being willing to pay a little more – although it may be in the trade market – which would only increase the chances of DeAndre Hopkins, Keenan Allen, and Michael Thomas, the high-end available talent, getting moved.

As you can see, there will not nearly be as big of a jumble at receiver as at running back. That is why my early read continues to be the play, take receivers in the early rounds next year. Receivers and a top eight QB early with lots of running backs in the middle and later rounds. Of course, things can change after free agency and the draft, but that is how I am attacking my early drafts.

Tight Ends

Free Agents: Dalton Schultz, Evan Engram, Hayden Hurst, Mike Gesicki, Austin Hooper, Robert Tonyan, Irv Smith Jr.

Secondary Option Free Agents: Tyler Kroft, Anthony Firkser, Dan Arnold, Foster Moreau, O.J. Howard, Jordan Akins, Maxx Williams

Potential Cap Casualties: If you have a good one, you are not cutting them

Dalton Schultz and Evan Engram are by far the best available talent. Both are franchise tag candidates. The Cowboys are the best fantasy landing spot for Schultz, as he already has a proven role and great chemistry with the QB. There is certainly a case to be made that Jacksonville is the best landing spot for Engram, but with Calvin Ridley set to join the fray next season, it will be harder for him to duplicate his 2022 campaign.

There are other tight ends that we know have fantasy potential – such as Mike Gesicki, Hayden Hurst, and Irv Smith Jr., but the landing spot matters so much with tight ends. We have seen tight ends that were not usable in fantasy change teams and become relevant. We have also seen productive tight ends change teams and fall off the map.

In the right landing spot, any of those guys could join the low-end TE1 picture in early drafts. The top six or seven tight ends will not be impacted by free agency, but after that, it is sure to shake things up a bit. It may not make an immediate impact but there are also a couple of projected first-round tight ends in the NFL Draft.

Free agency is going to be a really fun week that greatly impacts the fantasy landscape.

Make sure to follow Michael on Twitter, @MichaelFFlorio.

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