Hitter Fantasy Baseball Breakouts - Risers to Watch and Waiver Wire Outlooks (Week 17)

July 19, 2025

Jarod's hitter fantasy baseball breakouts, sleepers, and risers to watch for Week 17 of 2025. His list includes waiver wire outlooks and underachieving hitters so far.

Welcome back to my Fantasy Baseball Breakout Hitters article for Week 17 of the 2025 MLB season. The focus of this article is to highlight players who could be on the verge of a breakout, citing current active hitting streaks along with recent leaders in batting average and isolated power (ISO). You will also find expected batting average (xwOBA) underachievers and overachievers.

In this week's edition, we'll dive into players like Roman Anthony, Byron Buxton, and Nick Kurtz. You'll not only find out who is hot at the plate but also which hitters deserve better results based on their expected stats or who might be on the verge of a cold spell.

Last week, Cody Bellinger and Ceddanne Rafaela were two notable callouts who continued to hit. So, let's take a closer look at our breakout watch to help your fantasy baseball teams heading into Week 17. You might find a potential waiver wire target or some worthy DFS plays!

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Hit Streak Leaders

Data through 7/16

I outlined Chandler Simpson in last week's article when his hit streak stood at 13, now here he is with the longest hit streak in the majors at 16 games, and you know if he's getting on base, then he's also stealing bases.

The speedster is still only 36 percent rostered despite hitting over .300 and providing an advantage in the stolen base category.

J.P. Crawford (14 games)

J.P. Crawford is having a resurgent year, and as such, he too has found his way into this article on multiple occasions. He doesn't provide the stolen base value that Simpson does, but hitting atop the Seattle lineup has provided plenty of runs scored in lieu of steals.

During his current 14-game hit streak, the left-handed hitter has gone 20-for-58 (.345) with four doubles and a home run, along with seven RBI and seven runs scored.

For the season, the 30-year-old is hitting .290 with seven home runs and a strong .391 OBP, yet the veteran is even less rostered than Simpson at just 20 percent.

Roman Anthony (nine games)

After going 5-for-44 (.114) in his first 15 games, Roman Anthony has finally begun to heat up, now 23-for-62 (.371) over his last 16 games with seven doubles, a home run, eight RBI, 14 runs scored, and a stolen base.

It's a 9-game hitting streak for Roman Anthony!

He's the youngest @RedSox hitter with a 9-game hit streak since 1965 (Tony Conigliaro). pic.twitter.com/ByTpJdK0wC

— MLB Stats (@MLBStats) July 13, 2025

The 21-year-old is hitting out of the No. 2 or No. 3 spot in the order for a Red Sox team that is suddenly hot, winners of 10 straight and 13 of their last 15. With an average exit velocity of 93.8, max EV of 112.3, an 11.4 percent barrel rate, and a 55.7 percent hard-hit rate, plenty more power should come.

There must still be some non-believers out there, though, as the left-handed slugger is still available in over 40 percent of leagues, so make sure yours isn't one of them.

Highest Batting Average Last Seven Days

Data through 7/16, minimum 13 at-bats

Byron Buxton (.692 BA)

Byron Buxton is having a great season, although it comes with nervous excitement, right? With his injury history, it just feels like an injury that will torpedo this season is an inevitability. Hopefully, that doesn't happen, and we can see what a full season of games looks like from the veteran for the first time since 2017.

The 31-year-old is 12-for-22 (.545) over his last six games, including hitting for the cycle on July 12. But although he's hot now, his 72.2 percent contact rate can result in cold streaks as well, and this recent hot stretch was preceded by a 2-for-24 (.083) six-game stretch.

You're playing him every day in season-long leagues, and you won't find him on waiver wires, but you might give him extra looks in DFS while he's hot.

Dominic Canzone (.538 BA)

Dominic Canzone was outlined in my Week 14 article after he came up and whacked a few home runs, which was something he was doing quite well in the minors prior to his call-up, with 13 homers in 45 games at Triple-A.

SEA - Dominic Canzone 2-run HR (1)

📏 Distance: 450 ft
💨 EV: 115.9 mph
📐 LA: 25°
⚾️ 95.7 mph four-seam fastball (ARI - RHP Jeff Brigham)
🏟️ Would be out in 30/30 MLB parks

SEA (4) @ ARI (4)
🔺 9th#TridentsUp pic.twitter.com/gkT5ahvFVO

— MLB Home Runs🚀 (@MLBHRs_) June 10, 2025

His last home run came eight games ago, but just before the break, the left-handed hitter logged three games of three hits or more in his last six, going 11-for-22 (.500) with a pair of doubles in those six games.

Right now, he's batting seventh, and there aren't many RBI or run-scoring opportunities to come by, but if he stays hot, then maybe that could change. If it does, he'll surely be more appealing in season-long leagues, so keep an eye out for that as he's available in nearly all leagues.

Highest ISO Last Seven Days

Data through 7/16, minimum 13 at-bats

Nick Kurtz (.714 ISO)

Nick Kurtz was torching minor league pitching before he was called up in late April, but he went homerless in his first 16 games in the majors. The left-handed slugger has gone nuclear in the 42 games since, though, blasting 17 home runs in 154 at-bats. Extrapolated out, that's a 60-ish home run pace!

NICK KURTZ WITH HIS FIRST CAREER GRAND SLAM ‼️ pic.twitter.com/UdHdSqQTEe

— Athletics (@Athletics) July 9, 2025

Granted, he has an elevated 33.2 percent strikeout rate for the season, but he's also drawing walks at an above-average rate of 10.6 percent, and he's just 22 years old.

All told, it adds up to a .257 batting average, a .892 OPS, a .376 wOBA, and a 139 wRC+. The 6-foot-5 slugger belted three homers in four games just before the break, and hopefully, he can keep it up as he comes out of it. The Wake Forest product is available in 40 percent of leagues for the taking.

Most Steals Last Seven Days

Data through 7/16

Ivan Herrera (two SBs)

Ivan Herrera popped up on this list, but look at the games played column (G) for each player... Herrera only played one game prior to the All-Star break after he finally returned from the injured list. Yet he stole two bases, which is the eye-opening thing.

First of all, he's a catcher, isn't he? Well, manager Oli Marmol recently intimated that Herrera may not catch again this season, and as such, the 5-foot-11 backstop was the designated hitter in that contest in which he stole two bases.

If that is where he remains, perhaps he could run more since he won't be taking a beating behind the plate, making him even more valuable since he's eligible at catcher for fantasy, and there aren't many running catchers.

Herrera was supposedly even getting practice reps in the outfield during his rehab assignment, so perhaps there is a position change in the works, and positional versatility is another fantasy-friendly trait.

The 25-year-old has missed two months in two separate injured list stints this season, but he's performed well in his limited sample, slashing .320/.394/.529 with a .398 wOBA and 161 wRC+ in 43 games played.

3 HR
6 RBI

What a day for Iván Herrera! pic.twitter.com/fjBxsKaFNt

— MLB (@MLB) April 2, 2025

The Panamanian is the 11th-ranked fantasy catcher despite the missed time, so imagine where he'd be if healthy, and he's available in 45 percent of leagues, potentially with an added ability to steal a few bases.

xwOBA Underachiever

Data through 7/16

This section looks at hitters with the most significant discrepancy between wOBA and xwOBA in hopes of finding a hitter who may not be hitting well now, but could begin to get on a roll, which could either make them a worthwhile waiver addition or more frequent DFS play.

Luis Garcia Jr. (.302 vs. .361)

I outlined Luis Garcia Jr. in another article, which will be featured here on the site. If you'd like to read the full breakdown, please check it out.

But here's the gist of it...

Garcia is coming off a season in which he belted 18 home runs and stole 22 bases while hitting .282, finishing as the sixth-ranked second baseman for fantasy.

The 25-year-old looked like he was heating up, hitting .242 in April, then .264 in May, then .292 in June, before stumbling to a .200 batting average thus far in July.

The left-handed hitter is still hitting the ball hard, making a good amount of contact, and striking out far less than the average major leaguer, but the results just haven't been there, yet he is still the 17th-ranked second baseman for fantasy in 2025.

His expected stats point to improvement that will take place in the second half, with an xBA of .306, an xSLG of .484, and an xwOBA of .361, which is 58 points higher than where it currently stands (.302). He's available in over 40 percent of leagues for managers looking for upside at second base.

xwOBA Overachiever

Data through 7/16

Carlos Narvaez (.344 vs. .308)

Carlos Narvaez was featured in my Week 8 article after a strong stretch of hitting in May, but he soon began to show up on this differential report, indicating a potential slowdown ahead.

It appeared to happen, hitting .211 over a 21-game stretch from late May through late June. Then he heated up again, hitting .295 with two doubles and two home runs in a 12-game stretch before the All-Star break.

Now he's here again, near the top of the list with a large differential between wOBA and xwOBA, meaning another slowdown could be ahead.

The 26-year-old is making contact at a below-average rate of 73.5 percent, striking out at a slightly above-average rate of 23.5 percent, and registering a 13.2 percent swinging-strike rate, so don't be surprised if the second half doesn't look quite as productive as the first half.

He's not highly rostered at 20 percent, but if Herrera is available and Narvaez is your starting catcher, go grab Herrera instead.

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