Hitter Fantasy Baseball Breakouts - Risers to Watch and Waiver Wire Outlooks (Week 16)

July 12, 2025

Jarod's hitter fantasy baseball breakouts, sleepers, and risers to watch for Week 16 of 2025. His list includes waiver wire outlooks and underachieving hitters so far.

Welcome back to my Fantasy Baseball Breakout Hitters article for Week 16 of the 2025 MLB season. The focus of this article is to highlight players who could be on the verge of a breakout, citing current active hitting streaks along with recent leaders in batting average and isolated power (ISO). You will also find expected batting average (xwOBA) underachievers and overachievers.

In this week's edition, we'll dive into players like Cody Bellinger, Ceddanne Rafaela, and Mike Trout. You'll not only find out who is hot at the plate but also which hitters deserve better results based on their expected stats or who might be on the verge of a cold spell.

Last week, Colt Keith and Corey Seager were a couple of notable callouts who continued to hit. So, let's take a closer look at our breakout watch to help your fantasy baseball teams heading into Week 16. You might find a potential waiver wire target or some worthy DFS plays!

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Hit Streak Leaders

Data through 7/9

Cody Bellinger (14 games)

It feels like Cody Bellinger is hitting a quiet .281, but perhaps that is more a function of how quickly his season has turned around. The 29-year-old owned a batting average of .247 through June 17; however, in the 18 games since then, he has hit safely in 17 of them and is currently riding a 14-game hit streak.

A 14-game hitting streak for Cody Bellinger! pic.twitter.com/4ZuKWnAPcb

— Talkin' Yanks (@TalkinYanks) May 21, 2025

During those 18 games, the former MVP is 30-for-77 (.390) with five doubles, four home runs, 12 RBI, 13 runs scored, and two steals.

Thinking of using him for DFS, but the Yanks are facing a left-handed pitcher? Have no fear, the left-handed slugger has some pretty impressive reverse splits. Against righties, he's slashing .247/.311/.414 with a 102 wRC+, but against southpaws, he's slashing .376/.411/.635 with a 186 wRC+.

(Update: Bellinger went 1-for-4 on Thursday, extending his hit streak to 15 games)

Daylen Lile (14 games)

Daylen Lile's first stint in the majors ended after 11 games earlier this year, going 6-for-31 (.194) with four extra-base hits (zero HR) and zero steals. It didn't take long for the Nats to give the 22-year-old another shot, bringing him back up less than two weeks after being sent down.

This time around, he's been much more productive, hitting safely in 15 of 18 games and currently riding a 14-game hit streak. During the streak, the left-handed hitter has gone 17-for-52 (.327). The drawback is that there isn't much power to be had, with 15 of his 17 hits going for singles (the other two were doubles).

Daylen Lile is now on a 14 game hitting streak💥

Over the last 14 G:

.327/.375/.365
17 hits
2 2B
7 R
3 SB
.370 BABIP

1-4 last night 🎥

The @Nationals speed and athletic OF shows great feel to hit. There’s more extra base hit potential to unlock as he settles into the league pic.twitter.com/UvAm42ESKe

— Baseball Unstitched Podcast (@BaseUnstitched) July 9, 2025

What he does offer, but hasn't shown much of in the majors yet, is speed. The former second-rounder had two consecutive seasons with at least 23 steals before this year, and has tallied 12 at Triple-A this year. He's swiped only two in the big leagues thus far, but if he can keep hitting, maybe there's a chance to increase his stolen base output.

(Update: Lile went 0-for-2 with a walk on Thursday, ending his hit streak)

Chandler Simpson (13 games)

Like Lile, Chandler Simpson doesn't hit for much power. Unlike Lile, the speedster shows off the wheels at any opportunity he gets, and during his 13-game hit streak, Simpson has stolen six bases while going 19-for-47 (.404).

Simpson has an 89.1 percent contact rate on the year (91.8 percent during this hit streak) and is striking out at a minuscule 9.6 percent (5.9 percent during the streak). You can bet he'll keep putting the bat on the ball, and he'll keep stealing bases.

(Update: Simpson went 1-for-4 on Thursday, extending his streak to 14 games)

Highest Batting Average Last Seven Days

Data through 7/9, minimum 13 at-bats

Tyler Freeman was outlined in both my Week 11 and my Week 14 articles, and you see him listed in the table here, so I'm just pointing out that he's still swinging a hot bat.

Romy Gonzalez (.524 BA)

With the Red Sox unsettled at first base and Kristian Campbell demoted, Romy Gonzalez has found his way to regular at-bats since coming off the IL back on June 2. Since then, the 28-year-old has gone 30-for-84 (.357) with nine doubles, three triples, five home runs, 22 RBI, and 15 runs scored in 25 games.

Casual 454 from Romy Gonzalez pic.twitter.com/PgiRqQPP9L

— Barstool Baseball (@StoolBaseball) July 8, 2025

The right-handed hitter is slashing .338/.372/.603 on the season and riding a nine-game hit streak. Add in the fact that he's eligible at 1B, 2B, 3B, and SS on Yahoo!, and he becomes all the more rosterable in season-long leagues.

Will it continue? Well, he's sure hitting the ball hard, but he's done that before in his limited playing time in the majors.

The problem is that his chase rate and whiff rate are elevated, and the 70.3 percent contact rate is well below the league average (77.1 percent). A .410 BABIP isn't sustainable even for the best hitters, and all these points point to eventual regression. So, use him while he's hot, and use him against lefties. This season, his slash line against RHP is .265/.268/.456, while it sits at a scorching .412/.468/.750 against LHP.

(Update: Gonzalez went 0-for-2 with a walk and a run scored on Thursday)

Michael Busch (.478 BA)

Michael Busch was hitting .316 after 23 games to begin the year, but then he entered a prolonged 43-game slump in which he hit a paltry .228, bringing his season-long average down to .260. Since then, the former first-round draft pick has reestablished himself.

Not only is he hitting well over the last week, since June 15 -- a period of 20 games -- the left-handed slugger is hitting .408 with three doubles and seven home runs.

For the year, the 27-year-old has amassed a .297-18-56-44-4 stat line with a .404 wOBA and 165 wRC+. For reference, a 165 wRC+ is the fourth-highest in all of baseball, behind only Aaron Judge, Cal Raleigh, and Shohei Ohtani.

He's still available in about 20 percent of leagues. Make sure yours isn't one of them.

Highest ISO Last Seven Days

Data through 7/9, minimum 13 at-bats

Ceddanne Rafaela (.650 ISO)

Ceddanne Rafaela has been smoking the ball over the last week, collecting four doubles and three home runs. In reality, however, he has been hitting well since late May.

On May 27, 52 games into the campaign, Rafaela's batting average sat at .221. Since then, in a 36-game period, the 24-year-old has been batting .321 with 12 doubles, 10 home runs, 22 RBI, 22 runs scored, and four stolen bases.

CEDDANNE RAFAELA NO DOUBTER

SHOULD'VE BEEN AN ALL-STAR! pic.twitter.com/0Wfil8q8o6

— NESN (@NESN) July 8, 2025

The Curacao native doesn't walk much (4.9 percent), but he also strikes out at a less-than-average rate (19.6 percent) despite one of the worst chase rates in the league (third percentile).

The chase and swinging-strike rates might give you pause, but then you see solid barrel and hard-hit rates combined with a BABIP that sits below his career average, an xBA that is on par with his actual BA, and an xSLG that is almost 30 points higher than his actual SLG, and you realize that he can keep this up.

The right-handed hitter is on pace for a 20/20 season with a decent batting average and counting stats, while eligible at 2B, SS, and OF, yet is available in over 25 percent of leagues.

(Update: Rafaela went 2-for-3 with two RBI, a run scored, and a stolen base on Thursday)

Harrison Bader (.632 ISO)

Just pointing out that Harrison Bader has four home runs in the last week, so power-needy managers could try to catch lightning in a bottle here. However, note that he hit three home runs in the first five games of the year before going homerless in 27 consecutive games, so he could just as easily revert to that.

(Update: Bader went 0-for-2 with a walk on Thursday)

Most Steals Last Seven Days

Data through 7/9

Zach McKinstry (three SBs)

2025 All-Star Zach McKinstry has been outlined in this article four times already this season -- in Weeks 3, 5, 6, and 15 -- but all because of his hitting, whether it was a hit streak or the highest batting average over the last week.

Now he's popping up for a different reason -- steals. The 30-year-old swiped just three through his first 56 games this year, but has turned over a new leaf since then. In the 29 games since, he's stolen 10 bases.

From my Week 5 article:

"If you're going to criticize, it's that with being on base so much, it should probably have led to a few more steals, having stolen 16 bags in each of the past two seasons, but with only one steal to his name in 2025. If that production picks up, he'll be even more valuable."

Well, he's now even more valuable, and can be plugged into any of 2B, 3B, SS, and OF on Yahoo!. Not only that, he's available in over 40 percent of leagues, but is probably worthy of at least a bench spot in most 12-teamers as a productive lineup hole-plugger.

xwOBA Underachiever

Data through 7/9

This section looks at hitters with the most significant discrepancy between wOBA and xwOBA in hopes of finding a hitter who may not be hitting well now, but could begin to get on a roll, which could either make them a worthwhile waiver addition or more frequent DFS play.

Mike Trout (.346 vs. .399)

Just have a look at Mike Trout's batting profile from Baseball Savant:

That does not look like the profile of someone batting .233. Should he resemble prime Mike Trout, hitting close to .300 with 30-plus home runs? No, but his expected statistics suggest he should be performing better than his current numbers indicate.

The three-time MVP has an xBA of .276; SLG sits at .461, but xSLG is .559; and finally, wOBA is .346, whereas xwOBA is .399. His BABIP is .266 compared to a career rate of .340, so perhaps he's been a tad unlucky this season.

Sure, the injuries have piled up and the 11-time All-Star is slowing down, but don't write him off just yet. He's younger than Freddie Freeman, Jose Altuve, Nolan Arenado, and Paul Goldschmidt, to name a few.

(Update: Trout went 0-for-4 on Thursday)

xwOBA Overachiever

Data through 7/9

Jose Altuve (.338 vs. .302)

Speaking of Jose Altuve, the nine-time All-Star has been red-hot lately. Perhaps too hot, though, as it has pushed him into "overachiever" territory. The 35-year-old is 13-for-31 (.419) in the last eight games, including four doubles, a triple, and three home runs.

His 16 home runs this year put him on pace to sail past the 20 he hit last year, and he's making better contact and striking out less than he did last year even though he hit .295 in 2024, so he can surely remain productive over the remainder of the year, but he could start to cool off here.

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