High-Powered Offenses: Fantasy Football Players to Target in Week 4 Lineups

September 27, 2024

Fantasy football lineup targets and sleepers for Week 4 of 2024. Josh looks at high-powered offenses to target, and the top fantasy lineup picks from each.

Hello, RotoBallers, and welcome to Week 4 of the High-Powered Offenses column. Week 3 was a rough one for fantasy with more poor performances and injuries. It wasn't all bad, though, as elite tailbacks like Saquon Barkley, Derrick Henry, Kyren Williams, and Jonathan Taylor went off. We also saw Ja'Marr Chase finally look like himself and rookie Malik Nabers kept crushing it. As always, we'll adjust to recent performances and new injuries when selecting this week's offenses. Remember, this article will identify offenses that are set up for a huge week and which players among them are great targets. The teams and players highlighted will change weekly based on the data trends, their current matchup, situational factors, and key injuries. The goal will be not to repeat offenses on a week-to-week basis, selecting new teams for you to target.

The foundation for determining which offenses to target will be based on a data-driven methodology focused on NFL scoring. You can find more details on that in the methodology section. On top of the number of points scored, we’ll also be incorporating player-level information within the offense and analyzing the opposing defense to generate a list of the players you want to rely on each week. A shoutout to Stathead, Next Gen Stats, Fantasy Points, and DraftKings for the information required to write this article. 

Below, you’ll find a recap of the last week's offenses to target, a sneak peek of the offenses to target, a breakdown of the methodology, a snapshot of each metric in a data table, a few key takeaways, and the list of offenses and players to target in Week 4. Let’s dig in!

Week 3 Offenses Recap

• Buffalo Bills - 47 points scored (1st)
• Cincinnati Bengals - 33 points scored (5th)
• Arizona Cardinals - 13 points scored (25th)
• New Orleans Saints -12 points scored (26th)
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers - seven points scored (tied for 29th)

It was truly hit or miss in Week 3. The Bills shredded the Jaguars and could've put up 60. The Bengals put up 33 points in a losing effort against Washington. Conversely, Arizona, New Orleans, and Tampa Bay finished in the bottom 10. This time there was one defensive or special teams touchdown from Green Bay.

Week 4 Offenses to Target

• Dallas Cowboys
• Houston Texans
• Washington Commanders
• Detroit Lions
• Seattle Seahawks

Methodology

In terms of how it works, each week we’ll analyze four different metrics and their impact on the average number of points teams scored, including location (home, away), pace -- offensive plays per game (above average, average, below average), offensive touchdowns per game (above average, average, below average), and offensive yards per game (above average, average, below average).

We’ll calculate the average number of points scored for all 11 categories, identifying trends and patterns that can provide further insight into scoring output. We’ll track the cumulative average points scored as the season progresses, creating a larger sample size with more accurate data. 

Below, you’ll find a breakdown of each of the four metrics, explaining what they are and how the subcategories were created.

Metric No. 1 - Location

NFL teams travel across the country and abroad, battling one another every year. However, every team is allotted eight home games one year and nine the next, playing their remaining games on the road. 

This metric is divided into two categories: home and road. Occasionally, teams play on a neutral site outside America, including England, Mexico, Brazil, and Germany. In those situations, whoever the NFL identifies as the host team will be considered the home team, while the visiting team will be viewed as the road team.

The home team expects to have the advantage and score more points because they do not need to travel and have the comfort of their normal amenities and routine, along with the familiarity of their stadium and the crowd support.

Metric No. 2 - Pace (Offensive Plays Per Game)

The pace of play represents how fast a team runs its offense. It’s a statistic that can be measured in several ways, but for this article, we will focus on the number of offensive plays per game a team runs, which includes passing attempts, rushing attempts, and sacks taken. 

This metric is divided into three categories: above average, average, and below average. To find the average, we went back three seasons, including 2023, 2022, and 2021, to find the average number of plays for all 32 teams each year, creating a total of 96 team seasons. The average number of plays from that sample is 63.14.

We then expanded that number to create a range of 61 to 65 offensive plays per game, which we defined as the range for “average.” Thus, anything greater than 65.0 would be “above average,” and anything less than 61.0 would be “below average.” 

Every week, each team's average offensive plays per game will be placed in one of the three ranges to identify the average points per game in that range for NFL teams that week.

Their plays per game will be recalculated based on their cumulative total for the season each week to provide a cumulative average number of points scored for the three categories. The further into the season we get, the more accurate this will be because the sample size will be larger.

Sometimes a team has a large lead and is attempting to run out the clock, causing it to play slower, but in general, the expectation is that teams that run more offensive plays will have more scoring opportunities and thus score more points.

Metric No. 3 - Offensive Touchdowns Per Game

Touchdowns are one of the statistics with the highest variance at a player level, team level, and throughout a season for a particular franchise. However, as a league, the number is very consistent, especially when focusing on offensive touchdowns, which include passing and rushing.

This would exclude any touchdowns scored by a team’s defense or during special teams plays, such as kicking and punting. We've excluded these scoring plays because they are harder to predict and occur less frequently than offensive touchdowns. 

This metric is also divided into three categories: above average, average, and below average.

To find the average, we went back three seasons, including 2023 where teams scored an average of 2.3 touchdowns per game, 2022 where teams scored an average of 2.3 touchdowns per game, and 2021 where teams scored an average of 2.4 touchdowns per game. We then took the average of those three seasons, which was 2.3. 

Finally, we expanded that number to create a range of 2.2 to 2.4, which we defined as the “average.” Anything greater than 2.4 is defined as “above average,” and less than 2.2 would be “below average.” 

Every week, each team's offensive touchdowns per game will be placed in one of the three ranges to identify the average points per game in that range for NFL teams that week.

Their offensive touchdowns per game will be recalculated based on their cumulative total for the season each week to provide a cumulative average number of points scored for the three categories. The further into the season we get, the more accurate this will be because the sample size will be larger. 

The expectation is that teams who score more offensive touchdowns will score more points. We’ll be particularly curious about the gap in points scored between the three subcategories, not just a higher number.

Metric No. 4 - Offensive Yards Per Game

In addition to touchdowns, yards are another key measurement of offensive output. Because the range of numbers for yards is much wider, this statistic is more consistent among players and teams than touchdowns. Fortunately, it's consistent for the NFL as a whole as well. Similar to touchdowns, we’ll be incorporating only offensive output for the same reasons outlined above. 

Once again, this metric is divided into three categories: above average, average, and below average.

As with the previous two metrics, we went back three seasons, including 2023 where teams had an average of 331.6 yards per game, 2022 where teams had an average of 340.1 yards per game, and 2021 where teams had an average of 333.6 yards per game. We then took the average of those three seasons, which is 335.1.

Finally, we expanded that number to create a range of 320 to 350, which we defined as the “average,” with anything greater than 350 defined as “above average,” and less than 320 would be “below average.” 

Every week, each team's offensive yards per game will be used to place them in one of the three ranges to identify the average points per game in that range for NFL teams on that week.

Their offensive yards per game will be recalculated based on their cumulative total for the season each week to provide a cumulative average number of points scored for the three categories. The further into the season we get, the more accurate this will be because the sample size will be larger.

Sometimes, a team will begin a drive with a great field position because of its defense or special teams unit, which decreases the number of yards required to score a touchdown or kick a field goal. But, in general, the expectation is that teams who produce more yards on offense will score more points.

Additional Measures

These four metrics above will set the foundation for identifying offenses to target based on the different thresholds.

We’ll incorporate additional inputs such as the team’s record (wins, losses, and ties), which teams are favored to win by the betting market, metrics like pre-snap motion rate and pass rate over expectation, and changes in personnel or coaching staff to help hone in on the high-powered offenses to target.

We’ll also go beyond the offensive perspective to factor in the opposing defense and other variables that could impact the offensive output, such as weather.

Data Tables

Data Table No. 1 - Location

Data Table No. 2 - Pace (Offensive Plays Per Game)

Data Table No. 3 - Offensive Touchdowns Per Game

Note: Because touchdowns are a whole number, there won't be any teams in the "average" range yet. With two games played, a team would have to have 4.4 to 4.8 total touchdowns on the season, which isn't possible. This category should be populated next week, assuming a team has seven total touchdowns.

Data Table No. 4 - Offensive Yards Per Game

Data Takeaways

We're three weeks in and finally have data for all 11 subcategories across the four metrics. Our sample size continues to grow, increasing the accuracy of the data.

After road teams evened things up in Week 2, home teams again outperformed them in Week 3. Big performances from Minnesota, Los Angeles (Rams), Cincinnati, and Buffalo contributed to their high scores. Meanwhile, Washington, Baltimore, Carolina, and Green Bay held their own while traveling to their opponent's stadium. Finding high-quality home teams remains the ideal option.

The gap between the "above average" and "below average" offensive touchdowns per game metric is exactly 10 points, which is significant. Five teams didn't even put up 10 points last week so that large a difference is meaningful. Similarly, those same categories in the offensive yards per game metric are about eight-and-a-half points apart, which isn't far behind the touchdowns metric. These two metrics are still the strongest predictors of points scored.

NFL teams are pounding the rock more than ever this season. Only seven franchises have a positive pass rate over expectation. In addition, there are eight teams with a sub-50% passing play percentage. This shift in offensive philosophy is reducing the number of plays per game because running plays take longer than passing plays and keep the clock moving.

As a result, the teams in the average plays per game category currently lead the way in points scored. Despite basing the parameters for the categories within this metric off the past three seasons, they may need to be adjusted if the 2024 campaign stays like this because it's such an outlier. We'll keep an eye on how things unfold.

Week 4 Offenses and Players to Target

Offense No. 1 - Dallas Cowboys

After trouncing the Browns in Week 1, the Cowboys have been on the other end of that the past two weeks, including the first three quarters last week. The good news is they found some offense late and showed some promise. Furthermore, their ineptitude on defense, particularly stopping the run, is a positive for fantasy because it means they'll need to air it out.

Their numbers across the three metrics are pretty good. They've scored two touchdowns per game and generated 343.3 yards per game on offense while averaging 65.3 plays each week. They're also sixth in points per game with 25.7.

We prefer to target home teams, but AT&T Stadium hasn't been a happy place to play, making a road matchup with the Giants a preferable spot.

The obvious: We didn't get a vintage outing from CeeDee Lamb, even though Dallas scored 25 points and spent nearly the entire game in comeback mode. However, he was second in targets (seven), receptions (four), and yards (67) behind Jake Ferguson, who also fits into this section given the tight-end landscape. Finding the end zone would've softened the blow, but New York's secondary is much worse than Baltimore's.

Players to target:

Player No. 1 - Dak Prescott produced the type of numbers you'd hope for with 379 passing yards and three total touchdowns. You can expect him to shred the G-Men early and often in Week 4, landing him inside the top 10.

Player No. 2 - Whether Prescott can support three receiving options remains a fair question, but Jalen Tolbert has back-to-back successful outings with 82 yards in Week 2 and a touchdown in Week 3. He's worth a look as a flex option.

Offense No. 2 - Houston Texans

Houston looked overwhelmed against Minnesota, especially offensively. Brian Flores deserves credit for creating a masterful game plan for three weeks. Fortunately for the Texans, they return home to host the lowly Jaguars, who are making their case for the worst team in the NFL. It's to the point that even Trevor Lawrence's job security is under scrutiny.

The past two weeks have yielded a combined 20 points, so their season average is only 18.3 with 1.7 touchdowns per game. On the flip side, they have generated 341 yards per game over an average of 66.7 plays. Don't miss out on a chance for a big day from this squad and its relevant players.

The obvious: Nico Collins, Stefon Diggs, and Tank Dell are still among the best WR trios in the league. None of them smashed last week, but Diggs did the most damage underneath as an outlet for C.J. Stroud. Stroud will have more time to throw and easier schemes to navigate this week, so all three are great options.

UPDATE: Tank Dell has been ruled out, boosting Collins and Diggs.

Players to target:

Player No. 1 - C.J. Stroud is listed here because he needs to be viewed more like a streamer at this point that you spotlight in good matchups. Cue the Jaguars. He's with Prescott as a quality signal-caller with plenty of upside.

Player No. 2 - Texans starting RB. On Friday, Joe Mixon practiced in a limited fashion, earning a questionable tag. Meanwhile, Dameon Pierce was ruled out with a hamstring injury. If Mixon misses, Cam Akers will be a fringe top-24 back. Otherwise, Mixon would take on that role.

UPDATE: Mixon is out, putting Akers in play as a top-24 back.

Offense No. 3 - Washington Commanders

The Commanders capped off a week of surprising outcomes with a huge upset over the Bengals. We knew coming in that Cincy's defense was suspect, but Jayden Daniels put on a clinic Monday night. Their 38 points were second only to Buffalo in Week 3, and rank fifth all year.

They sit sixth in points per game with 26.3, seventh in offensive yards per game with 360, and tied for sixth in offensive touchdowns per game with 2.7. We're taking the risk of selecting a road team again, this time in Arizona.

The Cardinals' defense was already questionable before their stud safety Budda Baker suffered a quad injury in Week 4 that could impact his availability, so there's reason to be optimistic about Washington in Week 4. Not to mention, the 50-point over/under is the highest of the week.

The obvious: Jayden Daniels completed 91.3% of his passes for 254 yards and two touchdowns. Plus, he added 39 yards and a score on the ground. He's proved he belongs in the elite quarterback tier. Brian Robinson Jr. has over 100 yards or a score in all three outings this season. Austin Ekeler, will be sidelined due to a concussion. With less competition and a decent matchup, he's a solid top-24 tailback.

Players to target:

Player No. 1 - It's not flashy or explosive with Zach Ertz, but the guaranteed volume at the tight-end position is hard to find, so he's a safe streaming option.

Offense No. 4 - Detroit Lions

Detroit entered Sunday's contest with a clear strategy. Run the ball over and over. It played power football to the tune of 43 carries for 187 yards and a score on the ground. The final score of 20-13 wasn't as impressive, but we know this team thrives at home. Fortunately, that's where it'll be when Seattle comes to town on Monday.

When evaluating the Lions based on the three metrics, they're above average in offensive yards per game (399.7) and offensive plays per game (70.7), while average in touchdowns per game (2.3). Betting on a bounceback in a high-scoring affair makes a lot of sense.

The obvious: Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jahmyr Gibbs are fantastic assets you're excited to start every week. Sam LaPorta, on the other hand, has some question marks. He left the win on Sunday early with an ankle sprain, which could impact his availability. Even if he's active, it might limit his mobility and production.

Players to target:

Player No. 1 - David Montgomery has been extremely productive and involved through three weeks with 59 total opportunities. He's nearing workhorse volume, despite being the backup in a timeshare. He's become a must-start.

Player No. 2 - Jared Goff has yet to set the world ablaze as he typically does multiple times per season, usually at home. However, this week presents an optimal spot for him to hit. He's a top-12 signal-caller.

Offense No. 5 - Seattle Seahawks

The Seahawks harassed Skylar Thompson, forcing him to exit with a rib injury. After that, Tim Boyle filled in. It was an ugly day for the Dolphins, especially on offense. It also allowed Seattle to play conservatively in the second half, nursing a 14-point lead. It could've easily scored more points but didn't need to.

It is now top 10 in points per game (24.3), offensive yards per game (344), and offensive touchdowns per game (2.7) despite only 62 plays per game. As mentioned above, the Seahawks are the other half of the Lions shootout slated for Monday night.

The obvious: DK Metcalf started his day with a 71-yard bomb that he took the house. He's been heating up after a poor performance in Week 1.

Players to target:

Player No. 1 - After a breakout in Week 2, Jaxon Smith-Njigba disappointed with three receptions for 39 yards, but the game script factored into that stat line. They'll need to throw more to keep pace with Detroit, thrusting him into the top 36.

Played No. 2 - If you're looking for an upside streamer this week, Geno Smith has the weapons and matchup to fit that description. He's yet to toss multiple touchdowns in a game this year, but that could change against the Lions.

Player No. 3 - Kenneth Walker III is cleared to play Monday, meaning he'll take on the lead-back role over Zach Charbonnet. There's the risk of a timeshare and the matchup isn't ideal, so he's more of a flex option in his first week back, sending Charbonnet to the bench.

Hopefully, you found this article helpful as you prepare for Week 4. Thanks for reading. We’ll be back next week with more offenses and players to target.

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