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I'd like to think that I am a humble man, but this business forces you to brag when you get stuff right! And I had a clean sweep of four K props yesterday (Kelly, Ragans, Steele, Rodriguez) that ended up making it a very profitable night. I thought I would have more interest in K props today, but some of the best spots have high numbers and so I am actually going to meander into some other pitching props and bring back the hitter props once again, too.
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In this article, I'll provide my favorite prop bets for MLB games on Tuesday, September 5, 2023. If you ever want to chat about strikeout props or any other MLB bets, you can find me on Twitter @ThunderDanDFS.
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MLB Pitcher Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks
Brandon Pfaadt OVER 6.5 strikeouts (+100 DraftKings)
If there is one team that I refuse to stop going after with good strikeout pitchers, it's the Colorado Rockies. They are closing in on a 30% K% against RHP over their rolling last 30-day averages and we saw Merrill Kelly dice them up again yesterday with relative ease.
Pfaadt has arguably better stuff than Kelly, he just doesn't have the best command of his all pitches just yet. He's coming off a poor start against the Dodgers in his last outing, but then again so was Kelly and that didn't stop us. I imagine facing the Rockies lineup after facing the Dodgers before is like pitching batting practice against major leaguers and then as they walk off the field a bunch of middle school kids walk out of the dugout and then proceed to challenge you to a game.
Brandon Pfaadt's 3Ks in the 2nd. pic.twitter.com/IADy5eITmK
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) August 31, 2023
Enough of me trying to be funny already! This is a great spot for Pfaadt and we getting some nice odds on him to strike out seven tonight. The game is NOT at Coors and the Snakes should supply Pfaadt with plenty of run support which if given the lead early, might give him the confidence he needs to keep being aggressive with hitters.
Gerrit Cole to record a WIN (+100 DraftKings)
I have a thing where I just really struggle to take a guy over his prop against the same team two starts in a row. So while I had some interest in Cole and Bibee today, I am just going to go there and tempt fate.
I do think, however, that Cole can overpower this Detroit lineup and hold them in check, while his offense has a pretty decent matchup against Alex Faedo - who has functioned as a long reliever and spot starter for the Tigers this season.
The Yankees are -250 on the money line today so why not bet on Cole to pick up the win if we expect them to win the game around 70% of the time in this spot?
Walks Parlay: Zach Eflin UNDER 1.5 BB AND Jose Quintana OVER 1.5 BB (+103 DraftKings)
I will keep this one short! Eflin hasn't walked two or more hitters in 12 straight starts! And Quintana has walked two or more hitters in seven of eight starts this season!
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MLB Hitter Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks
Pete Alonso OVER 1.5 total bases (+110 DraftKings)
I might feel like cheating, but I don't often miss a chance to target the Polar Bear against Patrick Corbin. The big first baseman has mashed against the lefty Corbin to the tune of a .326 average and .721 slugging percentage. He has five career home runs and elite numbers against lefties in general. It just so happens that he hit two more home runs yesterday so he might be ready to start swinging a hot bat for the final month.
Juan Soto OVER 1.5 total bases (+125 DraftKings)
Soto faces a righty today in Lorenzen who allows a lot of hard contact. His primary pitches to lefties are a 4-seamer and changeup, both pitches that Soto has great numbers against.
Fernando Tatis and Juan Soto go BACK-TO-BACK! pic.twitter.com/Ndhker6gOC
— Talkin’ Baseball (@TalkinBaseball_) September 2, 2023
He wasn't able to get on base last night, but Soto had homered in three straight before that. These odds are fantastic for a hitter of his quality in a solid matchup.
Alright, good luck, my friends -- let's cash some bets!
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