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Today's free MLB prop betting picks for Tuesday, September 12, 2023. Use Dan Palyo's top baseball prop picks and MLB prop bet recommendations to win money on sports books.
Tuesdays are some of my favorite MLB slates for player props as we almost always have every team in action and plenty of players to choose from in good matchups. I went light on K props last night and planted my flag on Tyler Glasnow over 7.5. He was hot early and then slowed down a bit, but got to 8. Unfortunately, he didn't go up the ladder but hitting the base play was important and the Rays won, too, which meant I was able to cash my same game parlays as well.
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In this article, I'll provide my favorite prop bets for MLB games on Tuesday, September 12, 2023. If you ever want to chat about strikeout props or any other MLB bets, you can find me on Twitter @ThunderDanDFS.
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MLB Pitcher Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks
Brandon Williamson OVER 4.5 strikeouts (-110 DraftKings)
Williamson is coming off the COVID list to make his start tonight, so I am hopeful that we get the full pitch count allowance for him in this spot against the Tigers, who have been a top-5 team in terms of their strikeout rate against LHP over the last month.
Brandon "Bird Dog" Williamson, Filthy 86mph Changeup. 🐕 pic.twitter.com/wSBF394Ziu
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) August 25, 2023
Williamson has struck out five or more hitters in six straight starts and has been one of the Reds' most consistent starters down the stretch. They need a big outing from him today and I can't understand why we are getting him at such a low number and decent odds unless Vegas thinks he will have a short leash. I'm taking a shot on him and I don't feel like chasing any higher K numbers from better-known pitchers who are in less favorable matchups today.
Zack Littell OVER 3.5 strikeouts (-165 DraftKings)
We have to eat a lot of juice here, but the Rays righty has a plus matchup against the Twins and a stupidly low number. Litell has just a 19% strikeout rate this season, but he has been pitching very effectively and therefore he has been able to go 5+ innings in all but one start since being converted from a reliever to a starter back in late July. He has a better K% against lefties than righties, which actually helps him out in this matchup as he's likely going to see 5-6 LHH in the Twins lineup.
I don't love betting on a guy without great strikeout stuff, but the low number and matchup stand out today on a slate where the pickings are a bit slim otherwise.
Bryan Woo OVER 1.5 earned runs allowed (-125 DraftKings)
When I don't have a third K prop that I like, I start looking at outs props, then walk props, and then eventually at some hits or runs allowed props. This one stands out to me today. What has Bryan Woo done to deserve such a low number? He looked terrible in his last start, walking three and striking out zero hitters against the Reds (not an easy feat) as he allowed five earned runs over five innings. His velocity was down and it was pretty clear that something was up.
The Angels might be packing it in this year, but they just put up eight runs on the Mariners last night, three of those against a far superior pitcher in Logan Gilbert. If we just need two runs off Woo to cash, I like our chances of the young Halo hitters getting it done.
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MLB Hitter Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks
Gunnar Henderson OVER 1.5 total bases (-145 DraftKings)
It's sad that Adam Wainwright's career is ending the way that it is but right now, he's about as bad as any starting pitcher in the league who is getting the ball every fifth day. He's reached Jordan Lyles status in terms of being a guy who we have to consider stacking against in DFS and taking hitter props against and the books have certainly adjusted the odds accordingly as we aren't getting any value on the Orioles' hitters today.
But I am okay with some juice here because I love Gunnar in this spot and we can always go after a riskier prop with our second hitter bet.
There goes No. 25 for Gunnar Henderson!
Is he your AL Rookie of the Year? pic.twitter.com/tYukCddeVC
— MLB (@MLB) September 12, 2023
Gunnar has been mashing the baseball since late May and is always a guy I want to consider against RHP, especially someone who allows as much contact as Waino. Both he and Anthony Santander look great against Waino's curveball today. Henderson has a 71% hard-hit rate against the curve this season to go with a .350 ISO and .452 wOBA.
After another home run last night, he now has gone 8-20 with two HR, one double, and one triple just in his last four games.
Trea Turner OVER 1.5 total bases (+120 DraftKings)
From one hot-hitting middle infielder right to another, let's talk about the guy who is potentially the hottest hitter in all of baseball over the last month - Trea Turner!
Turner seemed to be off and was underperforming for most of the year and then August hit and the dude just absolutely turned it on. He has 10 home runs in his last 12 games! He has 10 multi-hit games in his last 12 games! He's been nothing short of fantastic for the Phillies in August and September.
While he does have a slightly tougher matchup than usual with a solid lefty opposing in Max Fried, he has shown that he can hit Fried well over his career. Turner is hitting .406 lifetime against Fried over 36 plate appearances, so we know he has seen him more than his fair share, too. I like Trea's chances of picking up a few more hits or cashing this bet at plus odds with one swing of the bat, too.
Alright, good luck, my friends -- let's cash some bets!
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