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Today's free MLB prop betting picks for Wednesday, June 14, 2023. Use Casey Wilson's top baseball prop picks and MLB prop bet recommendations to win money on sportsbooks.
Over the last three weeks, in my articles at RotoBaller, I am 10-2-2. I am red hot now and want to keep the momentum rolling into my player prop articles for the next two days. I am only considering my write-ups today as official plays, but I have included some more pitcher props for you today as the slate is loaded with great pitching props.
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I'll provide my favorite prop bets for MLB games on Wednesday, June 14, 2023, in this article. I will continue to hone in on K props first, as they are the most lucrative, and we will follow that with some total base props. Let's look at some of the best MLB player props worth wagering on for today's games without further ado! Follow me on Twitter @CaseyW22 for more free betting and DFS advice.
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MLB Pitcher Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks
Jordan Montgomery OVER 4.5 strikeouts (-160 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Jordan Montgomery will square off this afternoon against the San Fransisco Giants at home. Montgomery this season has a 4.11 SIERA, 21.2% K, and a 10.1% SwStr. Although the K% is average, his SwStr has been better than expected, and tells me the K% should spike a bit. Montgomery has struck out five or more in eight of his 13 starts this season. He has struck out six or more in six of those eight starts. The strikeout stuff is there as long as the matchup is right.
The Giants are an elite matchup for strikeouts against left-hand pitchers. They are sixth worst in baseball with a 25.8% K. They are also second worst with a 6.1% BB. They often swing against lefties, and Montgomery has enough stuff to get the Giants to chase. I expect him to get hit a bit here, as they own a 97 wRC+ with a .313 wOBA and a .402 SLG, but the ballpark is big enough to help sustain some damage. I don't expect Montgomery to have issues pitching deep enough into this game to achieve the five-strikeout mark.
Eury Perez OVER 5.5 strikeouts (-116 FanDuel Sportsbook)
Eury Perez has shined in the big league since his call-up. He has a 4.56 SIERA, 24.8% K, and an elite 13.1% SwStr. Although the strikeouts are lower than we saw in his minor-league career, the SwStr suggests the K% should be trending up as he becomes more acclimated to big-league hitters. Perez has had six or more strikeouts in three of his six starts this season. One of those six starts he didn't achieve the mark was in Coors Field, so I am throwing that out the window.
His opponent today is the Seattle Mariners, another elite matchup for strikeouts. The Mariners are third worst against right-hand pitching with a 25.2% K. Perez owns a 26.7% K and a 13.2% SwStr against right-hand hitters, and the Mariners will send at least five of them to the plate tonight. This alone will give Perez the upside to strike out six or more Mariners tonight.
Spencer Strider to record a win (-120 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Spencer Strider will be toeing the rubber for the Braves, and Michael Lorenzen will get the ball for the Tigers. Strider has been dominant this season, pitching to a 6-2 record with a 2.65 SIERA, 40.3% K, and a 9.3% BB. He is 6-2 and has recorded a decision in eight of his twelve starts. The Braves are 12-2 in games that Strider has started. I expect Strider to pitch deep enough into this game to get a win and cash the -120 bet.
The Tigers own an 81 wRC+, .285 wOBA, and a .343 SLG against right-hand pitching this season. They are a bottom-five offense against the split and will now face arguably the best pitcher in the big leagues. The Braves own a 104 wRC+, .330 wOBA, and a .436 SLG against right-hand pitching this season. They are a top-ten offense against the split and will now face Lorenzen, who has a 4.43 SIERA. I expect them to score early and often, giving Strider an excellent chance to record a win.
Also consider: SGP Colin Rea 4+ strikeouts + Bailey Ober 5+ strikeouts, Ben Lively OVER 4.5 strikeouts, Tyler Glasnow UNDER 8.5 strikeouts
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MLB Hitter Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks
SGP Justin Turner + Rafael Devers to record a hit (-140 DraftKings SportsBook)
Over the last few weeks, I provided you with some hit parlays. Honestly, it's been a blast betting and has been very profitable. I will make this a constant theme in my articles for the rest of the season. I like giving you guys different looks on how to bet instead of writing up the everyday props like always. You can always take either of the two guys below for their total bases prop to get a better line.
Austin Gomber leads today's slate with a 5.50 SIERA. He also leads the slate with a .315 BAA. For perspective, the next closest today is Garrett Whitlock, with a .280 BAA. Gomber has been getting hit equally badly against both sides of the plate. He owns a .387 wOBA, .240 ISO, and a 47.4% hard hit against right-hand batters this season. Against lefties, he holds a .447 wOBA, .333 ISO, and a 52.6% hard hit.
Justin Turner has been excellent against lefties his entire career. This season he owns a .426 wOBA and a .275 ISO. He is hitting .272 this year and has a hit in thirteen of his last 15 games. He has two hits or more in seven of those 15 games. Rafael Devers has been crushing left-hand pitching this season and will also have the platoon split against the right-handed heavy Rockies bullpen. Devers has a .357 wOBA and a .275 ISO against lefties and is hitting .247 on the season. He has hits in nine of his last 15 games and has two hits to more in six of those.
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