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John Brubaker's top MLB betting picks and best bets for today's MLB games on 9/28/22. His free picks against the spread, teasers, parlays, and MLB player props.
Happy Wednesday, RotoBallers, we're back for another day of MLB betting picks! Make sure you're following my Twitter, as I can't guarantee that I'll always be able to get the added plays written here in the article, but I will typically add whatever else I'm playing throughout the day. The entire RotoBaller team has been working around the clock to make sure we can get you guys the best betting picks, props, and lineups throughout the season. We're happy you're here with us and are looking forward to an extremely profitable 2022 season!
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If you're new, or just a refresher to those who read my articles last season, I'm John Brubaker. I've been betting MLB baseball games for four years now, and this is my second MLB season working with the great folks at RotoBaller. I've created my own betting model to help me create and identify value on run lines, totals, and money lines. In this article, I'll be providing my favorite betting picks for the MLB games on Wednesday, September 28, 2022.
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LucidMedia's 2022 MLB Betting Picks
- Season to Date: 74-77-2, -19.95 units
- Sides: 35-37-1, -13.96 units
- Totals: 38-40-1, -7.69 units
- Props: 1-0 +1.70 units
Today's MLB Betting Picks - Cardinals @ Brewers
O/U: 7.5 | Moneyline: MIL -142
STL: Jose Quintana | MIL: Brandon Woodruff
I don't even want to get into yesterday's frustrating day, but we'll look to bounce back today. I'll be running back the first inning under in this Cardinals/Brewers series. The Cardinals clinched the NL Central with their victory last night, so I can't expect to see their top studs in the lineup this evening.
The visiting Cardinals will send Jose Quintana (6-6, 3.03 ERA). Quintana is having an awesome 2022, split between his time in Pittsburgh and St. Louis. He's also been great in the first inning, allowing a run in just two of 14 starts on the road as well as just five of 32 starts overall. Quintana will be making his third start against the Brew Crew this season, allowing a run in one of the two. That was all the way back on April 28th, when Quintana was with Pittsburgh.
The Brewers will be sending Brandon Woodruff (12-4, 3.18 ERA) to the mound. While it seemed like every time I either bet on Woodruff or played him in DFS he did poorly, he's actually having another excellent season for Milwaukee. He's been great in the first inning as well, allowing a run in just one of 11 starts at home, and just four of 25 starts overall. He's a perfect 2-0 to the first inning under against St. Louis this season, and I have to imagine he won't be facing their top lineup this afternoon.
FanDuel Sportsbook has the first inning under at just -136, which is great value in my estimation. Albeit we lost this play last night, every day is a different matchup. My model gives the first inning under a 63.11% chance of hitting, good for "true" odds of -171.
Pick: Under 0.5 First-Inning Runs (-136) FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Diamondbacks @ Astros
O/U: 6.5 | Moneyline: HOU -200
ARI: Zac Gallen | HOU: Justin Verlander
We'll head to Houston for our second first inning under tonight. The Astros have been very good offensively in the opening frame all season, but shouldn't be so lucky tonight against one of the best pitchers in the league this season, Zac Gallen.
Gallen (12-3, 2.46 ERA) has had an absolutely remarkable season in 2022. Many said it was just a matter of him staying healthy to put together a season like this season, and they were correct. He's been great in the first inning this year as well, allowing a run in just two of 14 starts on the road, and just four of 30 starts overall. It'll be one of his more difficult matchups this season, but he's faced daunting lineups like the Dodgers and Padres all season, as well as making multiple starts at Coors Field.
On the other hand, the Astros will be sending heavy AL Cy Young favorite Justin Verlander (17-4, 1.82 ERA) to the mound. I've said it before but it is absolutely incredible what JV has done this year, putting up career bests in WHIP, ERA, and ERA+ at age 39 and coming off of Tommy John surgery. He's obviously been fantastic in the first inning also, coming into this one a perfect at home, holding opponents off the board in each of his 13 starts, as well as in 25 of 26 starts overall.
FanDuel Sportsbook has the first inning under at a relatively juiced price of -160. While I do feel like that number is high on a relatively volatile bet, we're still getting pretty good value here. My model gives the first inning under a 63.86% chance of hitting, good for "true" odds of -177. I'll also be taking a look at the F5 under 3.5 runs in this one.
Pick: Under 0.5 First-Inning Runs (-160) FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit
Good luck, RotoBallers, and make sure to follow my Twitter for more plays. Talk to you tomorrow!
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