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John Brubaker's top MLB betting picks and best bets for today's MLB games on 8/11/23. His free picks against the spread, game totals, NRFI, and other various baseball bets.
Happy Friday, RotoBallers! As a washed baseball player myself, it's simply not enough to get my fix in a men's league, so here I am betting on the pros from my couch. I'm stoked to be back to provide some MLB picks again this year. We had a rough regular season in the articles in 2022 but bounced back significantly, going 17-6-4 en route to +6.71 units in the postseason. That success has rolled into 2023.
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If you're new or just a refresher to those who read my articles last season, I'm John Brubaker. I've been betting on MLB baseball games for five years now, and this is my third MLB season working with the great folks at RotoBaller. I've created my own betting model to help me create and identify value on run lines, totals, and moneylines, among many other things! In this article, I'll provide my favorite betting picks for the MLB games on Friday, August 11, 2023. I'm continuously working to improve my models to make them more accurate, and as the season progresses, I'll share the data I have on my personal Twitter @LucidMediaDFS. Feel free to give me a follow if you haven't already, and do not hesitate to ask any questions! My DMs are always open. With all of that said, let's break down some baseball games.
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LucidMedia's 2023 MLB Betting Picks
2023 Regular Season: 52-40-3 (+1.77 units)
Today's MLB Betting Picks - Twins @ Phillies
O/U: 8.5 | Moneyline: PHI -
MIN: Dallas Keuchel | PHI: Cristopher Sanchez
Another article, another bet in a Twins game.
I mentioned last week that I needed Dallas Keuchel to "prove it" to me before I didn't fade him. He had a solid season debut against the Diamondbacks, scattering eight hits across five innings while allowing just a single earned run. However, I'll be fading him once again tonight as he projects to a 5.79 SIERA against a Phillies lineup that is red hot and projects to a .359 wOBA against him.
The Phillies will send Cristopher Sanchez (0-3, 3.44 ERA) to the mound. Sanchez is chasing that elusive first win of the season. He is an interesting case in expected numbers, bringing in a 3.97 xERA and 3.47 xFIP. However, he projects to a 3.54 SIERA today against a Twins lineup that projects to just a .307 wOBA against him. This gives the Phightin' Phils a solid lineup advantage, as well as a solid pitching advantage.
The Phillies have won eight of their last 11 and have begun to set themselves up for the top Wild Card spot in the National League. However, my model does give the Twins an advantage in the bullpen department, so I'll back the Phillies in just the first five innings here. We don’t have a line here yet, but as soon as it does we’ll be hitting it — either on the money line or run line.
Pick: Phillies F5 Money Line, FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit to win 0.62 units.
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Padres @ Diamondbacks
O/U: 9 | Moneyline: ARI +136
SD: Blake Snell | ARI: Ryne Nelson
I'll head out to Arizona for my second play of the day as the Padres come into town to take on the Snakes for a weekend series.
The Padres will send Blake Snell (8-8, 2.61 ERA) to the mound. Snell has been nothing but exceptional this season but is due for some negative regression as he brings in a 3.86 xERA and 3.61 xFIP. He brings in a 4.12 projected SIERA into this one, taking on a Diamondbacks roster that has hit just a .135 average against him and projects to a .312 wOBA today.
It'll be Ryne Nelson taking the ball for the Diamondbacks today. Nelson (6-6, 5.16 ERA) brings in a 5.05 xERA and 5.21 xFIP on the season. He has quite frankly been pretty poor lately, having allowed 13 earned runs in his last 15.2 innings pitched. He pitched a masterful game against the Padres last season in his MLB debut, but I don't see the same results occurring today. He projects to a 5.34 SIERA, while the Padres project to a .327 wOBA.
I'll just keep things in the first five innings in this one here as well, grabbing the Padres' first-five moneyline at -160 on DraftKings.
Pick: Padres F5 Moneyline (-160), DraftKings Sportsbook, 1 unit to win 0.63 units.
Good luck, RotoBallers, and follow my Twitter for more plays!
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